When the IPCC and other climate scientists make their predictions about future temperatures and sea level rises, they do so using a series of 'Representative Concentration Pathways' (RCPs) which work out the likely level of emissions into the future based upon assumptions about government policy, technological change, economic activity and a range of other factors. These estimations about likely level of emissions are then fed into climate models to make their predictions.

These RCP fall into four main categories being RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 each of which make increasingly pessimistic assumptions about the future emissions levels and therefore temperatures.

The following numbers are based on the most recent IPCC report. The first number is the predicted increase in temperatures in degrees centigrade over pre-industrial levels and the second number is the predicted rise in sea levels in millimeters:

RCP2.6.... 1.6....32mm
RCP4.5.....2.5....47mm
RCP6.0.....2.8....61mm
RCP8.5.....4.3....82mm

Clearly the RCP8.5 is the most pessimistic and yields the most dire warnings about the future. Whenever you see 'we're-all-gunna-die' headlines about temperature or sea levels, it usually is quoting numbers from models using RCP8.5. It is estimated that, over the last 5 years over 10,000 papers have been written based on RCP8.5 and how that would affect humans and the environment.

For at least the last 25 years that I recall, people falsely called sceptics have been saying RCP8.5 is too pessimistic and its predictions therefore wrong. But the alarmists love dire warnings and therefore claimed RCP8.5 was the most likely outcome. And of course, the media loves bad news so they likewise loved RCP8.5

WELL..... in April the IPCC and the scientific community final came clean on RCP8.5 and have admitted that its predictions are not only too pessimistic but completely implausible (their word!).

Consequently RCP8.5 will no longer form the basis of any predictions in subsequent IPCC reports and, its assumed, climate modelers will remove it from their models.

Meaning that future scary headlines and predictions will be a little less scary and therefore a little more realistic.

The whole climate scare continues to unravel.

WTF?

As per always mhaze shoots off a premature rambling from a source that, if fact and once again only demonstrates his lack of comprehension skills and lack of Scientific literacy.

I wonder if mhaze is getting his Scientific understanding from Trump?

When it was originally published in 2011, RCP8.5 was intended to reflect the high end – roughly the 90th percentile – of the baseline scenarios available in the scientific literature at the time.

A “baseline” scenario is one that assumes no climate mitigation, explains Dr Chris Smith, senior research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria. He states “RCP8.5 was developed as a no-climate-policy scenario, often called ‘reference’ or ‘baseline’ scenarios. These are used to benchmark the actions of climate policy.”

The RCPs were succeeded in 2017 by the “shared socioeconomic pathways”, or SSPs.

The scenario assumed a world without climate policy and was designed to explore the consequences of high levels of greenhouse gases and global warming. It was not, van Vueren says, a “best-guess scenario” of what the future held in store.

However, in some research papers, RCP8.5 was characterised as “business as usual”, suggesting that it was the likely outcome if society did not pursue climate action.

This was “incorrect”, says van Vuuren, noting that RCP8.5 “is not a likely outcome”. He adds: “It’s never been a likely outcome.”

I liked Peter Ridd pointing out that the Greenland ice sheet completely melted seven thousand years ago with natural climate variability. He holds the view that witch burning will ever be a popular pastime.

Lethal heat is the new witch.

The 'scare' is unravelling but the billions of taxpayer money poured into the pockets of these globalist grubs and China continue to send our nation bankrupt, destroy the environment with so called ' renewables' and allow filthy Greens/Teals to be funded as part of this treacherous cult. Saint Greta might have moved on now to be a useful idiot for Hamas but Australia's debt is now 1.2 billion with this lying cult still controlling the abc and much of mainstream media.

Further, now that mhaze is using the IPCC as his source what else does the ICPP say?

IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report stated that human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020. Continued greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increasing global warming, with the best estimate of reaching 1.5°C in the near term in considered scenarios and modelled pathways.

In relation to SSP5-8.5:
SSP5-8.5 is considered less plausible because of:
The rapid decline in the costs of renewable energy technologies makes continued reliance on fossil fuels less economically attractive, reducing the likelihood of sustained high emissions.

Increasing adoption of climate policies worldwide, including commitments to net-zero emissions and carbon pricing, are steering global emissions away from the highest pathways.

Global emissions have not followed the trajectory required for SSP5-8.5, and there is evidence of plateauing or declining emissions in some regions.

Seems like Science is working the way Science works - what a surprise.

A question has arisen from independent marine research and an answer is sought.

Q.
Given that more than 95 percent of fresh water on Planet Earth is not in the ocean, what approximate percentage of melted polar and glacier ice water evaporates into atmosphere and cloud instead of adding to AGW sea level rise?

Does anybody know?

Mhaze presents facts. The usual suspects react with ideology-driven gibberish.

IF you're going to claim that my post "demonstrates his lack of comprehension skills and lack of Scientific literacy" it'd probably make sense to show in your posts that alleged lack of comprehension and scientific literacy. Instead you write two further posts which basically confirm what I wrote but try to give it the standard alarmist slant. I don't think that rates very high on the logic scale.

"I wonder if mhaze is getting his Scientific understanding from Trump?"
I don't know what Trump's got to do with this except that he appears to be living in your head rent free. But just to clear things up I didn't get this from Trump or MAGA or any other of the various bogeymen that seem to keep you awake at night. Instead, the issue has been widely covered in most media which still has a degree of integrity concerning all things climate.

For example (and this is just one of over a dozen articles I've seen on this).... http://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/rcp85-is-officially-dead

NB: Roger Pielke has been fighting the good fight on RCP8.5 and its derivatives for quite a long time now.

The more interesting issue now that the alarmist community is acceding to the logic as to the implausibility of these outrageous scenarios, is why now?

The answer: AI. The people like Gates who were the primary funders of the CO2 scam have now realised that they need to burn carbon in order to generate the power to cool their AI and therefore CO2 needs to be rehabilitated.

Expect more of this in the coming years. Which of course leaves politicians who built a career around demonising CO2 rather out on a limb. That'll be funny to watch

What about that new Guzman Y Gomez fast food chain that opened up a while back?

Google? Does eating Guzman Y Gomez create increased flatulence?

AI Overview
Yes, eating at Guzman Y Gomez (GYG) can lead to increased flatulence for some people, as is common with many high-fiber, bean-heavy, or Mexican-style diets.

Maybe the climate advocates can go and protest excess emissions down there?

WTF?

mhaze states" it'd probably make sense to show in your posts that alleged lack of comprehension and scientific literacy."

Which of course is exactly what I did, of course.

"The RCPs were succeeded in 2017 by the “shared socioeconomic pathways”, or SSPs." mhaze is just 9 years behind on the information supplied by mhaze's own source.

But then Trump and a sway of other regressive "news" sources are incorrectly using the same term so I can see how mhaze has easily become befuddled.

Then there is this unravelling:

mhaze claimes "But the alarmists love dire warnings and therefore claimed RCP8.5 was the most likely outcome." - but of course without pointing to where this has ever been used as a plausible outcome because, you know, it never was and was never its purpose anyway.

Then there is this "over the last 5 years over 10,000 papers have been written based on RCP8.5"

So where are these 10,000 papers BASED on something that everyone knows:"Global emissions have not followed the trajectory required for SSP5-8.5." and is common knowledge that “It’s never been a likely outcome.”

Seems like Science is working the way Science works - what a surprise.

Oh so we're so desperate to find fault that WTF is now playing with semantics - RCP v. SSP. They are essentially the same thing so either term is valid. WTF seems to think the IPCC reports are holy writ so it may pain him to find out that the most recent report (AR6) uses the term RCP well over 200 times in its various sections and uses RCP and SSP as virtually interchangeable. Still, when you've got little of substance to say, semantics is as good a fall back as any.

As to recent papers that use the most pessimistic scenarios:

"Future Scenarios of Global Urban Expansion and Carbon Emissions" (Xu et al., 2025)

(Kahraman et al., 2025)

(Sarofim et al., 2024, Nature Communications)

Bousfield et al., 2024, Nature Climate Change)

(Davariashtiyani et al., 2023/2024, Scientific Reports)

(Naughten et al., 2023, Nature Climate Change)

And that's after a cursory check. "Critics like Roger Pielke Jr. have noted that ~25 new studies per day in 2024 still reference or use RCP8.5, bringing the total literature count well over 45,000."

It is said that science (particularly climate science) advances one funeral at a time. I suspect that RCP8.5, even though its now fully debunked, will still be used for several years to come.

WTF?

mhaze uses his his mental contortions and undergraduate brain to rework definitions yet again.

There is a huge difference between referencing something in a research paper and basing a whole research paper on something - but you know - comprehension and stuff.

Essentially what we have here is the regressive right-wing media picking up on a scrap that falls from the table and wants to turn that into a banquet of Science bashing. mhaze then thinks this is a "got ya" moment and thinks it's an "unravelling" of decades of Scientific research.

The great unravelling that mhaze is salivating over comes down to this:

Scientists don't use (and will not use) something for a purpose it wasn't designed for and has become superfluous anyway.

Some unravelling.

But as many on OLO cannot understand is that Science is working the way that Science works.

Polls show that most people are no longer listening to Net Zero crap; CPI, mass immigration and housing are their priorities.

I looked up a house I sold for around $300k 13 years ago which recently went for $900k.

The slices of bread I put in the toaster each morning are thinner than they used to be because the bakery is trying to deal with the Albanese Socialist government's growing tax grabs, power costs, red tape and general meddling in things they know nothing about. You still get the correct weight, but the slices are like tissue paper.

In Parliament, the Speaker with the appropriate surname Dick, says that the Opposition cannot call liars liars, nor an arrogant prick an arrogant prick.

"Polls show that most people are no longer listening to Net Zero crap"

And not just the average punter. Even some of the more honest politicians are catching on.... http://dailysceptic.org/2026/05/28/blair-mocks-miliband-over-net-zero-calling-his-policies-a-quixotic-fantasy/

Net zero is a quixotic fantasy. Couldn't have put it better myself. Of course, Blair will now be declared to be a 'denier'.

It is nothing but a gigantic scam, and you can bet London to a brick that the CCP has a hand in it. The unfolding disaster of the wind and solar transition is on a scale that no one imagined. Halfwit Australia is still pursuing the insanity whilst other ASEAN countries are returning to coal.

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/5882226-coal-asean-energy-security/

Magoo is doing nothing to reverse the mess. It is still business as usual for the "just stop oil" lunatics in charge.

Blair is a globalist grub who has consistently crapped on humanity. He now needs the power for data centres in order to bring the people into slavery. He was always too slimy and cunning to believe the man-made climate change garbage only believed by total dunces and harlots. The cult he was a part of have been useful idiots. Now his motives are even more sinister.

Fester,

Your linked article from The Hill is excellent. I particularly liked this paragraph...

"This month, Indonesia Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia made it plain: “I decided, let coal continue for now. This is about survival mode and efficiency. We must not sacrifice our people with high electricity prices.”

I wonder if we'll ever have a politician who thinks sacrificing the people to the climate Gods is a price too high?

mhaze,

Glad you enjoyed it. I'm at a complete loss to see any benefit to the world from Australia's net zero odyssey. Destitution, de-industrialisation, environmental and farmland destruction/contamination seem to be the only directions these lunatics are taking the nation.

And to think that refurbishing Australia's coal generation would cost about as much as Snowy 2.0. This is much worse than Sri Lanka's fertiliser ban.

'I wonder if we'll ever have a politician who thinks sacrificing the people to the climate Gods is a price too high?' We have numerous Politicians willing to sacrifice babies up to birth to baal in this nation. Any amount of evil is possible. They killed and maimed numerous for pfizer money recently.

Climate politics is just another ploy for the global east to destroy the global west.