Further to my series on the signposts of the unravelling of the great Green Myth, comes a new paper (peer-reviewed although that doesn't mean much these days) which shows that the rate of extinctions is slowing over the last 50 years.

It wasn't all that long ago we were being regaled with tales about how the current period is the 6th Great Extinction event (to go along with previous extinctions ie the Ordovician, Devonian, Permian, Triassic and Cretaceous extinctions), caused, of course, by Homo Sapiens and nicknamed the Anthropocene event. We were told that up to half of all "higher lifeforms could be extinct by 2100".

But alas, the new paper shows that extinction rates are in rapid decline having peaked many decades ago and that the claims about the 6th Great Extinction were based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the data.

http://tiny.cc/hjlz001

By itself, the paper is just another in a long line of climb downs. But its noteworthy because it can now be published. There was a time not so long ago when even looking in these types of things were career-ending. Now more and more scientists are emboldened to look at all things environmental with clear eyes. To be sure the authors of this paper remain cognoscent of the need to pay heed to the green gatekeepers so they almost seem apologetic for bringing forth such unwanted facts. I can't tell if that's funny or sad.

mhaze,

A slowdown in recorded extinction rates over 50 years doesn't invalidate the elevated risk relative to background rates.

The "Sixth Mass Extinction" framing has always been about long-term rate comparisons, not year-to-year monotonic increase.

If extinction rates have slowed, the more interesting question is whether conservation efforts are working. That would be evidence of effective intervention, not evidence the underlying pressures were imaginary.

One paper adjusting trend interpretation isn't a climb-down. It's how science refines models.

By the way, you can't get to "more" signposts when your first "signposts" were shown not to be signposts at all.