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The Forum > General Discussion > Are atmospheric and surface air temperatures poor indictors of climate change?

Are atmospheric and surface air temperatures poor indictors of climate change?

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WTF?

According to the the IPCC only 2.3% of global warming heats the atmosphere.

Most of it (93.4%) warms the ocean.

In the IPCC 6th assessment report the Global Energy Inventory presents energy increases in zetta joules. That is a 1 with 21 zeros after it.
(1 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 J)

From 1971-2018 the oceans have absorbed over 400 ZJ of energy at an exponential growth rate.

Furthermore, "The heat content of the global ocean has increased since at least 1970, and will continue to increase over the 21st century (virtually certain). The associated warming will likely continue until at least 2300, even for low-emissions scenarios, because of the slow circulation of the deep ocean."

Interesting times are ahead.
Posted by WTF? - Not Again, Monday, 31 July 2023 10:04:37 AM
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Dear WTF?,

You ask - are atmospheric and surface air temperatures
poor indicators of climate change?

They may well be. But if they last longer than individual
weather events and persist for longer periods of time
then surely they need to be taken seriously?
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 31 July 2023 2:57:23 PM
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Hello Foxy,

Thanks for the response.

There are yearly fluctuations in maximum global temperatures and despite the fact that the tend is upwards many use these fluctuations to argue against the concept of global warming.

The problem as I see it is that it is far too easy to misrepresent this data to the gullible and scientific naive.

The graph of Global Energy Inventory is far less complicated and shows an undeniable almost exponential increase in ocean warming.

I will still be talking about atmospheric temperatures but will certainly direct global warming deniers to the graph on ocean warming.
Posted by WTF? - Not Again, Monday, 31 July 2023 3:39:12 PM
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Dear WTF?,

I admire your persistence and knowledge.

I wish I had your patience. I'm afraid that I'm
finding great disappointment in some of the
reactions on this Forum at times. Still, I guess
we need the challenges. Although, I often do feel
like walking away especially as I think you said
once - people can disapprove all they want - but
the facts don't change.
Posted by Foxy, Tuesday, 1 August 2023 9:39:45 AM
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Although most heat from global warming is taken into the ocean, what happens in the ocean affects the land.
Posted by david f, Tuesday, 1 August 2023 1:39:04 PM
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"400 ZJ [zettajoules] of energy "

Ooow, that's a big number.

What's a joule? 0.0002777778 of a watt hour.

ooow, that's a small number.

How big are the oceans? 1,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 cm3.

oooow, that's a big number.

So what's the end result of using indecipherably large and small numbers to convey alarm? Well, best guess is that the oceans have warmed perhaps 0.7c in the past 100 years.

You can't build a scare campaign based on that - hence the big scary numbers.

The fact is we have very little idea what happened in the oceans below 10metres until the recent past when the Argo project was launched. And the Argo project is showing only minor warming at depths and indeed cooling in plenty of locations. You can't build a scare campaign on that, so the IPCC, while mentioning the Argo data, hurries to skip over it.

The problem for alarmists is that the atmosphere isn't warming anywhere near as much as their models say it should and so they decided the difference must be in the oceans. No evidence mind you, just unevidenced assertions.

(In proper science, if your models don't match reality, you ditch the models. In so-called climate science, if your models don't match reality, you keep the models and reinterpret reality).
Posted by mhaze, Tuesday, 1 August 2023 3:07:54 PM
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For the huge amount of money spent on the Argo project we have heard very little about it.

This proves that the heat the warmists hoped to find in the ocean, just isn't there, or the MSM would have been screaming it from the roof tops.

Another Global Warming fail, like all the rest.
Posted by Hasbeen, Tuesday, 1 August 2023 3:18:16 PM
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Lets look at some of the problems that we face:
overpopulation, poverty, water and food shortages,
disease, and the list goes on (including global warming).
I suppose all of these problems need international
co-operation to be solved.

The problems don't care who solves them.
Posted by Foxy, Tuesday, 1 August 2023 3:54:54 PM
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WTF?

The Global Energy Inventory indicates energy change at levels 0-700m, 700-200m and >2000m.

This data refers to energy change.

Once again, as in previous discussions, it is mhaze who initiates talk of scare campaigns in this discussion thread.

Nobody else seems to be scared.
Posted by WTF? - Not Again, Tuesday, 1 August 2023 9:21:46 PM
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" it is mhaze who initiates talk of scare campaigns in this discussion thread."

The entire Global warming/ Climate Change/ Global Boiling meme is about scaring "to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety).
Posted by mhaze, Wednesday, 2 August 2023 9:07:30 AM
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Research has found that now climate change denial
has evolved into:

1) Promoting doomsday perspectives.

2) Conspiracy theories.

3) Fabrications to convince the public there is no
need for climate change policy.

4) Let's support any effort to postpone or halt
any ambitious climate action and protect business
as usual.

You can choose to not believe in gravity,
but if you walk off a cliff, you will be afected
adversely.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 2 August 2023 11:12:35 AM
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WTF?

mhaze says: "The entire Global warming/ Climate Change/ Global Boiling meme is about scaring."

My suggestion to you is to avoid memes if they scare you and stick to the facts.
Posted by WTF? - Not Again, Wednesday, 2 August 2023 11:56:45 AM
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Foxy wrote: "Research has found that now climate change denial has evolved into:"

Has it? Any evidence for that or are you just going to tell me to find what you can't.

WTF wrote: "My suggestion to you is to avoid memes if they scare you and stick to the facts."

I'm not scared. I'm trying to point out why no one should be scared. As to the facts, I notice that when I post them you just run for cover.
Posted by mhaze, Wednesday, 2 August 2023 1:23:17 PM
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Dear mhaze,

The following link explains:

http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/facebook-facts-about-climate-change/#

Dr John Cook at the Monash Climate Change Communication
Research Hub has published research and content debunking
climate change misinformation - including the Skeptical
Science website and developed the Massive Open Online
Course Making Sense of Climate Science Denial.

There's more at the link given above.
Posted by Foxy, Wednesday, 2 August 2023 2:10:21 PM
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Well Foxy, if you think that's research that shows what you think it shows, then I can easily prove to you that Coke is a health drink.

FYI, there is no research there, just a group of alarmists, one of whom has been heavily discredited, who make a series of assertions. To be sure, they are assertions that many like you would like to think are true, but unresearched assertions nonetheless. Frankly Foxy, you'd have had more credibility if you'd offered up Lewandowsky's moon landing paper as evidence, and that was a mess.
Posted by mhaze, Thursday, 3 August 2023 7:01:13 AM
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Dear mhaze,

You did ask me to provide what research there was
showing what climate denial has evolved into.
I provided you with the research that's being done
as you requested. You didn't specify that you had
to approve of the people doing the research. (smile).
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 3 August 2023 10:33:23 AM
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but but but....there was no research there....just assertions.

Assertions don't become research just because they are made by scientists.
Posted by mhaze, Thursday, 3 August 2023 10:42:47 AM
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mhaze,

Oh dear.

Assertions summarize the research findings in addition to
any relevant evidence in support of the findings.

Ideally both of these pieces of information will become
integrated into a database in a structured way so that
they are readily available to the scientific community.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 3 August 2023 11:42:18 AM
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Now you're just making stuff up....there's not the slightest indication in the link you provided that any research was done, or, for that matter, is capable of being done.
Posted by mhaze, Thursday, 3 August 2023 12:54:37 PM
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Dear mhaze,

The following link is only one example of the calibre of people
involved and the research that they do
that are mentioned in my earlier link:

http://environment.yale/edu/profile/leiserowitz

I can't help you any further.

Your beliefs don't change the facts.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 3 August 2023 1:06:18 PM
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My apologies for the typo:

http://environment.yale.edu/profile/leiserowitz
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 3 August 2023 1:09:26 PM
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That's very disappointing Foxy.
Posted by mhaze, Thursday, 3 August 2023 3:45:06 PM
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Dear mhaze,

Misinformation about climate change is even more disappointing.
That's why it is so important for climate communications experts
to help mitigate this threat, especially on social media
platforms.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 3 August 2023 3:53:08 PM
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Dr John Cook at the Monash Climate Change Communication
Research Hub has published research and content debunking
climate change misinformation including the Skeptical Science
website and he's developed the Massive Open Online Course making
sense of climate science denial.

You need to look into it.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 3 August 2023 3:57:44 PM
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Foxy,

You asserted that "Research has found that now climate change denial
has evolved into:"

Yet when asked for that research you couldn't provide anything even approaching it. You meekly claimed that the research would come along later.

Yet based on this you are fully supportive of those with a contrary view being censored.

And that's disappointing. I'd hoped you were better than that.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 4 August 2023 8:21:38 AM
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Dear mhaze,

Disappointment is of your own doing.
It's your punishment for wanting confirmation of
what simply is wrong.

Ge4t yourself a new dictionary and look up -
"assertion," and "Research."
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 4 August 2023 10:38:07 AM
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"WTF?

mhaze says: "The entire Global warming/ Climate Change/ Global Boiling meme is about scaring."

My suggestion to you is to avoid memes if they scare you and stick to the facts".

If we could just get the IPPC to even use the facts their scientific people give them, instead of their garbage summaries for policy formation, we might get a little truth into the debate, rather than garbage for consumption by useful idiots.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 4 August 2023 2:04:55 PM
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Meanwhile, Airbus & Boeing & others are getting orders for a thousand more aircraft to stir up the upper atmosphere !
And, China producing thousands of EV cars to be stored away to rott !
Posted by Indyvidual, Saturday, 5 August 2023 9:56:52 PM
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