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The Forum > General Discussion > The China syndrome

The China syndrome

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China has been touted by Sinophiles as the future world leader. However, under the skin of this rising giant, there are clear signs of infirmity.

http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html

"China’s debt has risen dramatically in the past decade, largely the result of credit fed to state-owned enterprises in the wake of the global financial crisis. To some, the debt mountain represents a threat to China’s stability and even the world’s economic health, while others argue such fears are overdone as most of the country’s debt is state-owned and therefore, they say, manageable.

China’s debt is more than 250% of GDP, higher than the United States. It remains lower than Japan, the world’s most indebted leading economy, but some experts say the concern is that China’s debt has surged at the sort of pace that usually leads to a financial bust and economic slump.

However, when government debt is removed from the comparison, you see a very different picture. China’s corporate and household debt has risen sharply and this is where most worries are focused."

Reminds me of Vic Labor's debt.
Posted by shadowminister, Sunday, 7 May 2023 5:18:52 AM
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Plus, the CCP is s..t frightened of 1.4 billion Chinese, and they have to spend a lot more money, time and effort on keep the population under control than any other country they want to emulate or better.

As far as the West in general, and Australia particularly, are concerned, the biggest enemy is not China, but our own political class and mainstream media: something we share with the ordinary citizens of China. Our thugs might not be as bad as theirs yet, but they are have been moving in that direction since Covid (they copied the CCP 'solution'); and they are continuing with Zero Emissions, increasingly dearer electricity, ripping up the environment with windmills and solar panels and closing down reliable coal power. They are also threatening us with a cashless society, and have announced that vital pain-killing medication will be restricted - all because a mere 225 Australians have overdosed.

We need to start protecting ourselves from the enemy within first before we deal with China, which our inner enemies saddled us with in the first place.
Posted by ttbn, Sunday, 7 May 2023 10:20:14 AM
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Reminds me of the trillion dollars of Liberal debt with an interest payment of +$20 billion p/a that Australia has nothing to show for except a few extra mega rich billionaire mates of ScumO' and Friedbrain.

America has had three major bank collapses this year, with proportionately greater debt than all the American bank collapses during the Great Depression of the 1930's. What some don't understand, it is Australia's trade with China which is the single major factor for our prosperity.

p/s, We are now committed to paying the Piper $300 billion plus, plus, plus, on the never never, for rusty old war surplus nuclear tubs that will be under the direct control of the warmongers in Washington, ordering Australia to threaten the Chinese, we wont have a say! Where is Australia's sovereignty now?
Posted by Paul1405, Sunday, 7 May 2023 10:22:01 AM
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You can always rely on the Village idiot to say something stupid and blatantly false. China is financially in the poo whereas the US is not. I know that this is difficult to understand as you run out of fingers.

Also, why do you keep talking about the $trillion of Labor debt that is increasing at a massive rate?
Posted by shadowminister, Sunday, 7 May 2023 5:29:09 PM
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SM,

I don't need to sink to your level of name calling, it just shows how pathetic and brainless you are. AND, YOU claim YOU run a $100 million dollar pickle business, me thinks YOU are very much a "hands on" kinda guy, hands on first thing in the morning, hands on at lunch time, hands on in the evening, and of course hands on when you go to bed at night, fella YOU are a forum joke! Even a person with your marginal brain capacity, should know what I say is true.

After all, YOU are a devout TRUMPSTER, hummm I should know better than expect intelligent comment from a knuckle dragger like YOU!
Posted by Paul1405, Sunday, 7 May 2023 8:04:52 PM
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I agree fully with what Paul wrote in his first comment except for one thing.
It's not Liberal debt, nor is it Labor debt either shadowminister.
It's both main parties debt, and it's also our debt thanks to both their mismanagement and incompetence.

4 Reasons Why China Can Overcome its Debt Uncertainty
http://www.eastspring.com/insights/improving-air-quality-for-sustainable-growth-in-korea/4-reasons-not-to-worry-about-china-s-debt-problem
- FYI, this information is not current, same as your reuters article shadowminister.

"China is financially in the poo whereas the US is not."
- I'm seeing a lot of stuff coming out about the banking crisis or what could be the beginnings of a financial crisis.

Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years
- The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.
http://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump
"One of President Donald Trump’s lesser known but profoundly damaging legacies will be the explosive rise in the national debt that occurred on his watch. The financial burden that he’s inflicted on our government will wreak havoc for decades, saddling our kids and grandkids with debt. The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office."

- I agree with what ttbn said as well.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Sunday, 7 May 2023 11:10:27 PM
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Hi AC,

Good to hear from you, and I agree, but its not our debt, its our children and grand-children's debt and a debt for those that are still a twinkle in someones eye, at least 50 years worth of debt. That means less schools, less hospitals less government services all round.

Did you watch 'Four Corners' and Australia's submarine capacity, its an pathetic joke. We would be better off sticking a couple of WWI howitzers on old Manly ferries and sailing them at the Chinese, it would be a lot less costly and just as effective. This Yankee/Pommie nuclear deal is an absolute con job. You wouldn't buy a used car of that pair of shysters, Uncle Sam has become Slippery Sam the used submarine man, if we know what's good for us we should run a mile.

p/s We would probably be better off if we bought subs from the Chinese, they have 66 in the water, 12 nuclear, and can produce about 6 or 7 per year, no sweat. We have one operational submarine out of 6 old tubs. We have the same submarine capacity as Algeria!
Posted by Paul1405, Monday, 8 May 2023 6:29:25 AM
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BTW AC,

I have a "very nice" 67 Datsun to sell ya, one owner, a little wear and tear, its only got 500,000 clicks on the motor, hardly run in, will suit an energetic mechanic like yourself, a steal at 20 grand! You pay up front, but the misses will be using it for the next 10 years for the shop'n. After that I'll be driving it and you'll be still catching the bus. Sounds a good deal ah? Had a second heap as well, just sold it to Albo on the same deal, but for $360 billion. Suckers, come on in!
Posted by Paul1405, Monday, 8 May 2023 6:43:57 AM
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I see the village idiot has resorted to lying and name-calling as usual. I think it is standard gangreen training. After a stay at the taxpayers' pleasure, he ran a small business into bankruptcy and is now living off welfare. This he believes qualifies him to talk about economics. That Forbes disagrees with him does not stop his stream of drivel. But as a huge fan of communism and Putin, this is not surprising.

The US has about 4100 independent banks of which on average 5 fail every year which is why the bank failures this year is nothing like the failure in 1930.

China's debt runs through all levels of government and is about 130% of the similar debt in the US even with a smaller economy. Recently the first local government went bankrupt. Chinese banks now have massive debts, and if the state did not back them would be technically bankrupt as many of the assets they were instructed to invest in have little to no return.
Posted by shadowminister, Monday, 8 May 2023 8:21:29 AM
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"the CCP is s..t frightened of 1.4 billion Chinese, and they have to spend a lot more money, time and effort on keep the population under control"

America has 1600 police forces and a over 443,000 national guardsmen, along with large numbers of State Militia units. Not that they want to keep their population under control.
Posted by Paul1405, Monday, 8 May 2023 9:26:10 AM
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http://www.reuters.com/world/china/debt-laden-local-governments-pose-fresh-challenges-chinas-growth-financial-2023-03-10/

"The LGFVs have become the black hole of the Chinese financial system. They have been used to fill the gap between local government revenue and expenditure," said Andrew Collier managing director at Orient Capital Research.

"They have little or no profit, and cannot pay back their debt owed," he said. "I expect many LGFVs to collapse, or to be quietly recapitalized by banks, putting some rural banks and some bondholders at risk of defaults."

The total debt of China's LGFVs has swelled to a record 66 trillion yuan ($9.5 trillion), equivalent to half of the country's economy, from 57 trillion yuan last year, according to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report last month.

Concerns about their worsening credit profile come as the government is trying to lift the economy from the grip of a property debt crisis in the last couple of years, which saw a number of developers default on their debt and land sale revenues plummet, forcing Beijing to roll out a slew of supportive measures.

"LGFVs are under considerable pressure on debt repayment this year because their income is often associated with real estate and land sales," said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS."
Posted by shadowminister, Monday, 8 May 2023 10:59:49 AM
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