Trump has declared that he's running for office in 2024.
Biden seems to be unpopular in the US. Trump has a large
following. What are his chances of winning and who's his
competition? Also how will this affect us in Australia if
the man wins?

Your thoughts please.

Foxy,

I can see Trump trying to run, but I think he has shot his bolt.

Hi shadowminister,

What about Trump's daughter - Ivanka?
Does she have a chance?

cont'd

I believe that Trump has a very popular base whereas
Biden is not popular and his deputy even less so.
So I'm not sure how the Democrats will fare in all
this. However, I have read about Ron DeSantis - whose
name keeps cropping up as a Republican candidate. It
will be interesting to see whether the party backs Trump
again.

Foxy,

I think Trump got in because he broke the mould, I don't think that will work again. Ivanka has neither the fire nor political nous to get in.

Trump won't win the Republican nomination this time.

America, one party, two heads, the aforementioned fools simply makes for a more destabilised world. The most powerful nation on the planet, run by a silly old jerk-off, challenged by a game show criminal, with a ditsy daughter. This is surreal, it can't be happening.

Foxy, tell me its not happening! Oh! sh!t its happening!

Hi shadowminister and Paul,

Happy New Year to you both. I'm still full got a
warm glow from last night's New Year's Eve celebrations
here in Melbourne. It was a quiet family affair for us
spent with family and the grandkids. We had Thai food
for dinner (delish), and watched the 9.30pm fireworks
with the kids from the rook of our apartment building.
It was a very clear evening - and the fireworks were
spectacular and seemed to go on for a long time.

We all loved it. Then at midnight - we watched and reeled
in the New Year - all very awesome. Melbourne did us
proud. Great night! And the views from our apartment were
awesome.

As far as Trump is concerned? I'm not at all sure how any of
this is going to pan out. I don't know what to predict.
I'm totally unsure in which direction the US is going to go.

Will the Democrats stick by Biden? Don't know. He's not
popular. His Deputy even less so. And I'm not aware of anyone
else being in the running. Trump? Is the man serious? Or
is he running to escape being prosecuted? Again - who knows?
He seems to be using the same old tactics that he used the
last time he ran - "Make America Great Again!" Will people
buy it? Who knows?

My husband tells me to watch - "Planet America," I probably
should to get a better jist of things. In any case - I find
it hard to predict anything as far as the US is concerned.
Hence my starting this discussion - to see what others think.

I don't know if Trump will again become US President.
- But I do think that being forced to have his tax returns aired requires fairness, and that ALL politicians in the US should have to share their own tax returns.

http://www.9news.com.au/world/key-takeaways-from-six-years-of-donald-trumps-federal-tax-returns/e50eafbe-5116-423b-aac6-bdfd44aeccf6
They deliberately add a photo that makes him look guilty.
- But we all know rich people find loopholes and pay little tax, and I'm sure all the others are playing by exactly the same rules.
It's how the rich screw the poor.

Many like Pelosi trade the stockmarket on classified information that only they are privvy to.

The world is crazy.

We have the most rabid anti smoking campaigns, claiming passive smoking is a killer causing cancer. Thousands of addicted people in trouble affording the huge taxes loaded onto tobacco.

Then in all this rubbish we pump the sky full of cancer causing carcinogens from the heavy metals generating the colours in those fireworks. 8 tons of it in Brisbane alone.

Our stupidity knows no bounds.

Interesting times ahead that's for sure.

Does she have a chance?
Foxy,
I said some time ago that she'll very likely be the next President !

Foxy,
Typo, I meant the first female President not the next .

As always, I do actual research. This reveals Sportsbet, that for more than 12 months put Trump ahead in the 2024 presidential election odds, now puts:

- Ron DeSantis most likely to win in 2024, at 2.80

- Joe Biden 3.75

and in third place

- Trump at 6.50

see http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024-5479667

+++++++++++++++++

TRUMP RUSSIA'S STOOGE

However Betting agencies are fallible.

One need only look back to 2016 when Sportsbet put Hillary way ahead of Donald.

We know how his gross hucksterism and a lot of help from Russian and Wikileaks cyber-propaganda discrediting Hillary and pushing Trump's "Make Amerika Great Again" fooled the US public into voting Trump President.

Trump, who (in past years) had been bailed out of bankruptsy 3 times by Russian money, became Russia's highest placed Agent of Influence http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent_of_influence

To Russia's benefit, Trump went on to damage Western alliances (eg. NATO) and boost rightwing extremism in the US. This has destabilised American democracy to this day - with the January 6, 2021 Capitol Insurrection being just one well known gain for Russia and loss for the US.

Thanks for all your comments.

Hi Maverick,

If Trump had all this help from the Russians - how come
he lost to Biden? And can he really win this time around?

Indy,

As a confirmed Trumpster, you have now fallen in love with Little Miss Trumpette. I'm not surprised.

What it all boils down to is that the failing policies of idealism are already clearing the path for conservatism again & if they put Ivanka up as a candidate she'll romp in.
Nothing much positive seems to emanate from Kamala Harris to get the job on merit.
Biden will probably hand over to her soon & she could snatch the first female President title but inheritance is as far as she can go.

Ivanka has said she's staying out of politics.
She's distancing herself from her father's
campaign. Whether she decides to run - we'll have
to wait and see.

There's just one more thing that I'd like to add.
Trump's tax records should not have been made
public. They were entitled to go after the records
but they should not have published them. That goes
against fair treatment - we can't treat people
unfairly even if we may not like them. It's a bad
reflection on the justice system and democracy.

People should be treated equally, even if they happen
to be a former president.

Am I wrong?

Am I wrong?
Foxy,
Only if everyone else's aren't made public either !

Hi Foxy

Just as Putin attempted to discredit democracy and elections in 2014 Ukraine - Putin, directing his stooge Trump, almost succeeded in the 2020 US Election.

Trump's "Stolen Election" campaign slogan was a Putin invention. Putin comes from a tradition that denies democracy and locks up, poisons or shoots opposition leaders. Here's a Putin tradition Trump probably dreams of emulating http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Boris_Nemtsov . The January 6, 2021 insurrection to "hang Pence" being a bitter reminder.

Trump attempted to manipulate the social media rumour factory against the fair 2020 Election result.

But fortunately American men and woman at local, state and federal election levels, successfully resisted, Trump's "Stolen Election" Big Lie.

Fortunately an aging Biden and a refreshingly young Ron DeSantis (even if Ron is a Republican) have a chance of countering the Putin-Trump Big Lie Campaign in 2024. See the odds for these 3 and for long shots, like Kamala Harris http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics

If he doesn't, start taking Mandarin lessons.

More specifically see http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024-5479667

- Ron DeSantis most likely to win in 2024, at 2.80

- Joe Biden 3.75

- in third place Trump at 6.50

- In US' conservative tradition female, half Asian, half Black Kamala Harris is a long shot at 19.00

No point bringing Democracy into the debate when there isn't anything democratic around !

Trumpette doesn't want to be President for two reasons;

Firstly, the Presidency would clash with Trumpette's make up. And that's a big no,no!

Secondly, Trumpette doesn't want to step into all of those Daddy Donald's Dungers he left behind!

Furthermore Paul

Trump's daughter Ivanka is hypersensitive about Trump's strange undemocratic behaviour - his plain dangerous support base - and his bizarre sugar-Daddy attitude to her.

This all makes any Ivanka bid for elected office a minefield for her.

The Guardian reported June 2022 http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/11/ivanka-trump-donald-trump-week-in-patriarchy

"The writing has been on the wall for a while now, but it seems Ivanka Trump finally did it: she turned against her daddy. On Thursday we learned that the former White House adviser told the congressional panel investigating the insurrection at the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, that she doesn’t believe her father’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

In a video deposition that was shown during the first hearing of the panel, Ivanka states that she accepted the explanations of the then attorney general, Bill Barr, to Donald Trump that there wasn’t any evidence of voter fraud, and he’d lost the election fair and square."

+++++++++++

And then there's Trump's attitude that he has a "special" relationship with her - all playing out as political control if she sought office. See http://soapboxie.com/us-politics/Donald-Trumps-Strangely-Sexual-Relationship-With-His-Daughter-Ivanka

"President Donald Trump has treated his daughter, Ivanka, like one of his many girlfriends since she was barely a teenage girl.

Referring often to her body and looks, Trump also took a number of uncomfortable pictures of Ivanka and himself while she was growing up.

Trump shows no cognizance that these pictures might be inappropriate or creepy to normal people."

+++++++++++++++++++++

That's the Donald that so many OLOers believe has ruined American democracy. Its trusting Donald that ruined 2016 to 2020.

Things have improved under Biden.

"Things have improved under Biden."
He takes you to the brink of a nuclear war escalating a conflict and you call that an improvement?

- Funniest thing I've heard today.

Dear Maverick,

Trump praised Putin's illegal and immoral invasion
of Ukraine and the shameful propaganda that sought to
justify it. He then continued this ass-kissing.
Trump admires strongman bully tactics.

Heaven help Australia if this man becomes US President
and we need help with China or anyone else.

Hi Foxy

Trump was unusually anti-China when he was in office http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump#China

Although Trump likes Dictators (as the whole world knows) so Dictator Xi may be able to bribe and boost Trump's weak ego, like Putin did.

Also Putin might instruct new President Trump "2.0" to be nice to China.

+++++++++++++

Given all this, it is increasingly risky for Australia to rely on US nuclear and conventional miltary protection, given Biden is aging, Trump can't be trusted and DeSantis remains an unknown quantity.

Soon to be Ambassador Rudd and others in the Australian Embassy, Washington, need to fill in the blanks about DeSantis quickly regarding DeSantis lack of known policies towards Australia and to longterm alliances generally http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Ron_DeSantis

Meanwhile way before 2040 Australia needs to develop its own nuclear deterrent, like Israel did. Israel can help in this, for a price naturally.

Cheers Mavs

Thanks Maverick.

As usual you make a lot of sense.

I'll second that Foxy,

Mavs is spot on with his summation of the state of affairs in Washington as regards American political leaders. We are in a rather precarious situation, those on offer are a mediocre bunch to say the least, or of an unknown talent as in the case of DeSantis, and that puts us, and the rest of the world, in a very dangerous position.

Post war Republican Presidents have tended to be hawkish in their approach to world affairs, whereas Democratic Presidents, I wont say dovish, but tend to be a little bit more circumspect than their counterparts from the Republican Party. The American political system to function as required, I wont say best, relies on having a "boofhead" as leader. And they certainly have had some....Truman, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush jr, Trump, Biden, the boofyest of the boofheads list.

Dear Paul,

It is concerning who the next US President will be.
At the same time - although I am worried - I'm
hoping that the American people will have the sense
to choose as their leader a man that will not disgrace
their country. The entire world is depending on their
decision at the ballot box.

Oh come off it Foxy.

After Obama, & then Biden, they could elect the drovers dog, & be less ashamed. Hell they even returned Obama after he proved himself to be anti USA.

Dear Hassie,

America is somewhat of a concern isn't it?

My husband tells me that there's a program on SBS
this evening (Chanel 3) at 8.30 pm " Lies, Politics,
and Democracy." It finishes at 10.35 pm, it's
about the profound mounting threat to American Democracy.

Might be worth a look.

I watched the program on SBS last night.

It was frightening.

Hi Foxy,

Was having a discussion with Padre Pete a few weeks back, I consider him as a bloke in his 70's a Christian, after all he is a priest, and a true liberal with his values and outlook. He made the bold statement during our discussion that; "Although there are many Christians in America, America is not a Christian country". I naturally enquired; "Why do you say that?", he gave his reasons, and I must agree that from a true Christian perspective, America is not a Christian country.

I rock'ed up Xmas Eve at 6pm for the 'Nativity Service' the wife was a Shepard, with a cardboard sheep. Unlike previous years where it has been rather staid in presentation, with traditional carols etc. This being Petes, first and probably only year of doing the Nativity thing here, it was different from the usual to say the least. It opened with an Aussie Xmas carol, that's different for starters. Peter sort of took to the traditional, and tore away the superfluous shallow material, and gave a true meaning to the whole event, not the fairy tale we are used to, but the true meaning. I liked it when he introduced the 4 Wise Men, as Peter said who knows how many 'Wise Men' there were, the Bible doesn't say, even their existence is not important, what is important is what 'Wise Men' and their gifts represent, an he went on to explain.

cont

cont

I loved the baby Jesus, a girl about 9 years old, with her real parents playing Mary and Joseph, some new folks to the Church from Africa, bit different. After the service I said to Peter, "Well, that was different, but I liked it." He said; "Do you think people got something from it".....I said; "Some, but for some it might have gone over their head a little, but there was 'Silent Knight' and 'Away In A Manger' etc that would have made them happy. Peter said; "I didn't want to leave out the traditional carols, people and the children like them, but I wanted to put the true meaning of Jesus's birth out there"...."You did" I replied.

Hi Paul,

Your Padre Pete sounds like a great man of faith.
And the Nativity Scene must have really been
something. I'm glad to learn that Aussie carols
were brought into the service. We need more of
this type of festivity. Even Christmas books
for kids are available that deal with Aussie
themes. I remember one of my favourites was
Mem Fox's "Wombat Divine." The kids loved it.

Hi Paul,

I did watch the SBS documentary last night. It was on the
2020 election and showed the bad choices that the
political leaders of the Republican Party made which
ended up threatening American democracy and led to political
violence.

The Republican Party became the party of Donald Trump who
the party thought they could manipulate. Trump ended up
manipulating the party.

It will be tragic if they allow this to happen again.

The most frightening thing Foxy, is that you & many others actually believe the propaganda put our by SBS, the ABC, BBC & so many other media branches of the left.

And who do you believe Hassy?

The Putin-Trump propaganda troll farm (aka Russia's Internet Research Agency (IRA))?

see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Research_Agency#Timeline_of_the_Internet_Research_Agency_interference_in_United_States_elections

Hi Hassie,

The film shown on SBS was a documentary and showed
the choices that were made by US political leaders.
The rhetoric was very clear - as was the violence
that resulted. It was not propaganda.
It was a lesson to us all - what can happen when a
party gets manipulated and wants to win no matter
what the costs.

Hassy, I don't know what the alternative is telling you, but when you want to NUK 200 million innocent men, women and children as you claimed on this forum should be done with Pakistan, it can't be all that good. Good old Nuk Em' Hassy. Scuttle away, it exposes an old cock like you for what you are.

All you have to do is take ownership and admit that was a stupid statement by you, and I'll stop reminding you of it.

Hasta la vista Old Cock, till next time.

It is frightening that Donald Trump is yet again
campaigning to be "elected" as US President despite
as we have seen from the past - his having little
interest in actually "serving."

In 2016 he launched a political campaign largely to
upset his critics and of course advertise his many
business ventures. He surprised everyone, including
himself when he captured the Republican Party and
declared victory.

In 2020 he ran again because he needed the legal
protection afforded by the office of President and he
felt entitled to re-election. When he lost, he refused
to admit defeat and claimed without evidence that the
election was "stolen" from him.

Now he's going to run again in 2024.

America and the world will need more than God's help if
he succeeds.

There's more at the following:

http://wgbh.org/foundation/highlights/behind-the-scenes-lies-politics-and-democracy

Hi Foxy,

I'm sure there are 'hard liners' in the CCP, and also in the Kremlin, but also there are 'hard liners' in Washington. Xi is a autocrat, Putin is an autocrat and Trump when in office is also an autocrat. They all have their so called "parliaments", China has its National People's Congress, Russia its State Duma and America has its Congress, but they become simple yes men, lacking the will to exercise any semblance of democracy. Hard liners, 'yes men' and autocrats are a dangerous combination in any language.

Dear Paul,

Lets hope that the hillbillies in the US won't get
a say in voting Trump in and that the Republican
Party finds a more suitable candidate.

How lucky we are Foxy,

Seems the Hillbilly Republicans in America have uncovered a "Communist" within, his name is Kevin McCarthy, a raving red no less, totally unsuitable to be house speaker! AND he bears a striking resemblance to Joseph Stalin, from the moustache down, probably is fluent in Russian as well, I'm sure some of the forums 'Usual Suspects' will agree. Those communists are a sneaky bunch, ones made himself the King of England, another is the Pope in Rome, and as for the Dalai, Lama a"pinko" if I've ever seen one. I'm sure the lads will be along shortly to confirm everything I say.

We are very lucky in this country Paul
that the nutters are in the minority here.
And that Australians usually get it right at
the ballot box.