Patrick,
I agree, we maybe in for a different concept of coalitions, however, I think you omit the influences of the Country party (oops National Party). Particularly the affinity with the Conservative Libs. I have no doubt that they will be high on the minds of the liberals.

Kelvin Thomson spells bad news for Ruddite Labor but good news for Labor in the longer term. And certainly good news for good governance in Australia.

Hear what he had to say this morning in a short interview on the ABC AM program: http://www.abc.net.au/am/. Scroll down to the segment titled; Labor MP pushes for population freeze.

Or read the transcript; http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2009/s2756848.htm

He said his message is attracting a lot of support.

I think the pivotal pargraph is to do with the comment that conservatives are in favour of "social" spending rather than small government.
Fine when it was less ideology (both neolib and religionist doctinaire) and more "social", but we wonder what conservatives would regard as "social" spending when it becomes dodgy immigration schemes to do down local bottom-end wages, or propping up of clericist education at the cost of state sponsored secular education, or with rebate gifties to prop up middle class welfare re health, opposition to contraception and stem cell research and or freebies for corporates (sh-t, sounds almost like new Labor).
I really had a sense that Baume actually likes reapportionment upwards; surely in a civilised twenty first century society this sort of Hobbesian and Malthusian take that defines the mean spirited doctrine of discredited neoliberalism; inward looking, self absorbed isolationist stuff is as dead as certain forms of conservatism, eg, as regards climate change.
This so called alternative, neoliberalism is only conservatism with the ethical aspect removed; eg "beggar thy neighbour" stuff that creates a conflict ridden, inefficient, unjust society of the failed feudalist type, with so much power and wealth eventually in the hands of increasingly fewer people (corpoates) and fewer still of these prepared to be governed by a sense of humanity?
On the wider issue of coalition leadership, the "Oz" carries a report that Abbott might have been unsuccessful in convincing Hockey to stab his old mate in the back.
Turnbull-Hockey is the only way left for them, now that the (neo) conservative wing has discredited itself beyond all recall with its embrace of US midwestern medievalism, even at the expense of the old realist/small "c" concern for community and humanity.
And as has been said elsewhere, even this is not neccessarily the rebirth of social liberalism, just as likely a first step towards a cloning of the current Labor formation which is also sometimes grubbily neolib, at bottom.

I don't see where the bad news is.
Stabilizing at 26 million makes good sense i would have thought.
We are no where near that figure yet.
I would say to start debate on this now would assure we get things right for the future.
The labour party would not go against popular elect from the people.
To find that out there must be debate first.

Tony Abbott is very popular with "John Howard Battlers" apart from rolling back workchoices, labour have been pushing all their other buttons and sending them straight back to the conservatives. I have even heard people talking about resurrecting the DLP.