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The Forum > Article Comments > The developing scandal around the International Energy Agency and peak oil > Comments

The developing scandal around the International Energy Agency and peak oil : Comments

By Michael Lardelli, published 18/11/2009

According to whistleblowers the IEA has overestimated the rate of future oil production because of pressure from the US.

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Some are conflating running out with peaking. Sure a finite resource runs out from Day One but with fuel a point must come when the net energy (yield minus extraction effort) declines from a maximum. When it shrinks to zero there is no point extracting that fuel; some claim grain ethanol has little or no net energy after all the inputs are properly costed.

I agree that natural gas is The Next Big Thing. The Chinese are a step ahead of us and have already taken most I think of future Gorgon output. Since politicians are afraid of nuclear power (again unlike the Chinese) it seems like one effect of the CPRS will be to replace coal with gas fired baseload electricity. At the same time most heavy vehicle operators will find that batteries don't give the range they want so they will switch from diesel to compressed natural gas CNG. Then to repair the trade deficit we will export more liquefied natural gas LNG. Then what? It's hard to see semitrailers driving interstate on batteries.

It is a worry that supposedly solid economic citizens have lied to us. IEA's renewable energy figures for Australia are often referred to so hopefully they are OK. It raises the possibility that major coal users will also start fibbing to take the political pressure off.
Posted by Taswegian, Wednesday, 18 November 2009 12:55:25 PM
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"It is tragically apparent that we can no longer trust the pronouncements of the high authorities" lol!

I'd say it marks a point of personal growth or maturity when one truly believes the above statement. You cannot understand society without this vital fact: Authority is pushing it's own agenda...not yours.
That Howard and Bush lied is well documented...I guess cognitive dissidence is the only explanation of why this is still OK with most people.
BTW. Even though we know the great bankers are full of it and have to be bailed out by taxpayers (yes, even here in Australia), we *still* let them take $Million salaries and trust their advice!
Our society is currently insane.
Posted by Ozandy, Friday, 20 November 2009 1:29:28 PM
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"It is tragically apparent that we can no longer trust the pronouncements of the high authorities"

Oh ... for a second there, I thought you were talking about Phil Jones and Micheal Mann, etc. ...
Posted by Clownfish, Wednesday, 25 November 2009 3:36:53 PM
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Tasweigan;
No truck drivers will not be arriving interstate with battery power.
Probably never will achieve that sort of range because of fundamental
chemical reasons.
However their trailers may well arrive on flat cars by rail.
This technique has been used for many many years.
The problem with natural gas is that all service station will have to
be fitted with tanks and the rest of the whole distribution system
re-installed. The cost of all this while the existing fuels rise in
cost and on top of that all the costs associated with the ETS.
The question must be asked can we convert electricity generation,
trucks, cars, & export the gas to China, Europe, and Nth America all
at the same time ?
Gas depletion decines much faster than oil, so all in all it really
does demand thorough study but the pollies don't want to know.

The question must arise, can we afford the conversion ?
Can we afford not to do it ?

Both government and opposition do not even want to discuss the
problem with oil supply decline, as shown by the senate 32 to 6 vote
against the greens investigate motion.

I think the Upsalla Report is probably not too far out.
In any case the government should be doing work on a rationing
scheme, possibly using the new Medicare card and the service
stations credit card network to subtract the fuel purchased from
the buyers yearly ration.

Electrification of all rail mainlines should be undertaken
immediately. It will take a long time and should have been started
ten years ago.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 26 November 2009 8:17:41 AM
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Tasweigan;
No truck drivers will not be arriving interstate with battery power.
Probably never will achieve that sort of range because of fundamental
chemical reasons.
However their trailers may well arrive on flat cars by rail.
This technique has been used for many many years.
The problem with natural gas is that all service station will have to
be fitted with tanks and the rest of the whole distribution system
re-installed. The cost of all this while the existing fuels rise in
cost and on top of that all the costs associated with the ETS costs.
The question must be asked can we convert electricity generation,
trucks, cars, & export the gas to China, Europe, and Nth America all
at the same time ?
Gas depletion decines much faster than oil, so all in all it really
does demand thorough study but the pollies don't want to know.

The question must arise, can we afford the conversion ?
Can we afford not to do it ?

Both government and opposition do not even want to discuss the
problem with oil supply decline, as shown by the senate 32 to 6 vote
against the greens investigate motion.

I think the Upsalla Report is probably not too far out.
In any case the government should be doing work on a rationing
scheme, possibly using the new Medicare card and the service
stations credit card network to subtract the fuel purchased from
the buyers yearly ration.

Electrification of all rail mainlines should be undertaken
immediately. It will take a long time and should have been started
ten years ago.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 26 November 2009 8:18:24 AM
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