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The Forum > Article Comments > A house for Dennis > Comments

A house for Dennis : Comments

By Amanda Gearing, published 10/11/2009

A reformed pedophile would not allow himself to be placed in a community surrounded by children.

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Pynchme,

Thanks again. You have obviously put a fair effort into answering my question, far more than I deserve really.

Pynchme: "There are well documented cases of offenders over 70 yrs old."

Yes. So after that remarkable interlude lets return to what passes for debate here on OLO.

There are also well document cases of family dogs ripping apart children, and family cars running them over. However, in terms of what the appropriate response to these accidents one has to know how often they occur. A signal instance does nothing but tug on the heart strings.

It does appear from everything quoted and linked to here the odds of Dennis reoffending are low. For example, in that study you quoted of N=752 none offended when over 60. If that was a representative sample, that means the odds are of all sex crimes committed, less than 0.1% will be by people over 60.

King Hazza: "lobbying councils to deny permits to purchase or reside in property"

I would have a lot more sympathy for this if, before trampling all over the rights of others, the people lobbying for it put some effort into deciding whether they were acting out of an irrational hysteria whipped up by the media, or there was a good reason for asking him to move on. To do otherwise would be to sanction the burning scary looking old women as witches and the persecution of Galileo.

OK, I know I ask too much. In fact I ask more that I can do, because I am not a wonderfully rational person either. But I do think it is right to hold our government and our courts to that same standard. I know they will never reach it, and I know they constantly have to be reminded of it. But if you don't continually remind them, they don't stay still - they go backwards.

That is why I don't like it when I see people do what you are doing here, in suggesting that in this "one special case" there is no need to uphold that standard.
Posted by rstuart, Friday, 20 November 2009 12:34:37 PM
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rstuart, I'm afraid that your estimation of risk is mistaken. You are not accounting for the additional risk factors (two categories of those have been supplied). DF meets most of them as far as I can see. We don't know what his drug use is but I have assumed none.

He was assessed at high risk - possibility of rehab nil - after release for the abduction and molestation case. He has done nothing since that time to demonstrate that static and dynamic risk factors no longer apply - quite the opposite.

One study correlated recidivism with age. The fact that there was weak correlation between older aged people and recidivism doesn't ensure that older/aged males don't offend.

Recidivism can be measured at varying stages: as police report; charges being laid or at conviction. Fewer older offenders being convicted may just mean they haven't been caught (have got better at evading detection, perhaps) or haven't been convicted. There are cases of offences committed by people well into their 70s and older. Regardless of age, one must take account of the risk factors as well as the base rate (which varies from study to study).

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2009/04/elderly_paedophile_jailed_for.php

http://www.mjsol.co.uk/2009/general/elderly-paedophile-viagra-nhs/

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article4923251.ece

http://www.sandiego6.com/news/local/story/Elderly-child-molester-Francisco-Esquivel/Xzvukr3n90mTxMANA6jMWg.cspx

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/600148139/Elderly-molester-staying-in-prison.html

http://www.wkrg.com/florida/article/elderly_man_molests_5_year_old_child/15812/Jul-31-2008_12-35-am/

etc - Google.
Posted by Pynchme, Friday, 20 November 2009 3:33:48 PM
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Rstuart;
I think the frequency of offenses and the cases themselves need to be addressed as separate issues;
For example, if a family dog eats one of the kids, obviously you'd still have to put the dog down as a threat.
If there were substantial repeat cases, then further preventative measures would have to be taken regarding pet ownership issues.
The same deal with being run over by a car- obviously if it's an irregular accident, there is nothing much to do but investigate the conditions of the accident, and determine if the driver was at fault.
If there were multiple cases then there would likely be some form of investigation into car safety to minimize these accidents occurring.

As it is, Fergusson is a singular case.

As for local rights- generally I don't see it as a special case but think locals deserve more input into whether someone has the right to be granted residence if there are any security concerns- at least until parole conditions are weighed more into the condition of rehabilitation and not the expiry of a finite sentence.
Posted by King Hazza, Friday, 20 November 2009 7:34:01 PM
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Pynchme: "rstuart, I'm afraid that your estimation of risk is mistaken."

Perhaps Pynchme, but it is probably more accurate to say there is no firm data either way. I admit to having no idea how the statistics combine, but they don't always combine the way you imply. Only independent variables do that. Without more studies it is impossible to say, however the simple interpretation of the figures "none in a random sample of 752" means its pretty slim.

Although am I impressed with your ability to drag up news stories of paedophiles on Viagra, even 10's of them isn't terribly significant given the billion odd in the OECD, which looks to be your sample space.

[rant] How you academics manage to put yourselves in the situation were you write the papers, you review them for free, then you have to pay to access them is utterly beyond me. [/rant]

King Hazza: "the frequency of offences and the cases themselves need to be addressed as separate issues ... obviously you'd still have to put the dog down as a threat."

No. Think about it. You are saying it is a threat because it did the deed before. You are doing precisely what you say you should not do, you are not separating the issues of the dog doing it once and the odds of it doing it again. You are having difficulty doing that here, and I presume you are also have difficulty doing it with Dennis.

Normally of course you would be right. However this time Dennis is in his twilight years. A little longer and it may as well shrivel up and drop off completely. He is in effect not the same dog.

He has offered to submit to chemical castration, probably because given his advancing years it doesn't mean much to him. If he did, would you still be in favour of allowing all and sundry driving him out of their neighbourhood?
Posted by rstuart, Friday, 20 November 2009 9:25:31 PM
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I see where your coming from rstuart but his probability of re-offending is less predictable (having repeated the offense previously and showing little signs of rehabilitation while incarcerated).

His consent to chemical castration is more re-assuring though.
However, I still believe that if any local resident can make an argument of concern for security, the council should have the right to deny convicts such as him right of residence (putting aside his threat level isn't the highest- although I don't believe it worthy of flat-out dismissal).
Posted by King Hazza, Friday, 20 November 2009 10:22:10 PM
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