Re RStuart’s post above:

--“As you say it is about perception. But even then I have trouble accepting it. As the start of this spike the new arrivals said weren't aware of the changed conditions in Australia. Given the state of the news media over there I find this easy to believe”

Again RS shows he cannot deferential between SOME & ALL. While some may not have been aware of the changes, a good many were.
And, to see it taking ½ a decade for news to reach the refugee staging points –even the poorest of such, is the height of naivety.
Even the poorest of third world suburbs seem to have modern media – they may not have enough houses or jobs but most will have access to a TV .
(I have seen dwellings which are little more than tin sheds , house a family of eight or more ,two chairs, one table and a colour TV)
And as the whole Oceanic Viking saga (and other incidents ) show, they often also have mobile phones---rather than ½ a decade for news to reach their relatives in the old country, try ½ a minute.

--“So yes, it is all about perception. And if perception agrees with reality, it will be: have a good case, stick to your guns, be patient and you will get in because Australia does honour its UNHCR obligations.”
Again way off the mark.

This should read : “You need not have a good case any old bullsh1t story will do, OZ & UN officials can’t tell otherwise, and OZ MPs are largely gutless.