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Be wary of the rise and rise of China : Comments
By Chris Lewis, published 26/10/2009Communist China’s rise and the US’s relative decline is likely to lead to major policy change in the West.
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>>I have no problem with any nation rising. All I am arguing is that one nation, especially a communist one, should not receive most of the benefit while most others struggle.<<
Simply because in economic terms, we are powerless to do anything about it. Just as seventeenth century India, after allowing the East India Company to develop its export market, was powerless to halt the exploitation of its resources, and ultimately its domination by a foreign power.
Once the barbarians are inside the gates, all bets are off.
China's stalking horse was of course our willingness to put ourselves in hock to buy its increasingly sophisticated baubles. As has always occurred throughout history, the country - or business - that sets out to dominate a market in this way is able to squeeze out its competitors.
For recent examples, study the post-war economies of Germany and Japan, both of whom became technological powerhouses at the expense of industry in less afflicted countries.
>>Sure democracies have relied on some dodgy policies in recent years rather than hard policy decisions, but this does not rule out the need for policy adjustments in the future.<<
Not entirely sure what you refer to here. It was largely complacency that got us to where we are now.
>>I do believe there will be a public backlash against China should it benefit most without playing by the same rules.<<
Which "public" is that?
It will be many years before the Chinese public repeats Tienanmen Square. Prosperity - even relative prosperity - is a very powerful political sedative.
Any ideas that involve introducing them to western-style democracy are pretty pointless. Let's face it, we're becoming increasingly dirigiste ourselves, each day bringing in yet another nanny-state law, and giving the "authorities" ever-greater powers to slap our wrists for trivial acts.
Not a great incentive for mass political upheaval.
Our task should be to learn to conserve the things that are important to us, while living with the fact that we have little ability to have an impact on the way China evolves.