The last hard estimate of emissions was 2006 at 565 million tonnes. If Australia's population was around 20m at the time the per capita average is 28 tonnes. So far we seem to be relatively nonplussed about the drying of our biggest river system or horrendous fires. Perhaps an unrecoverable coral bleaching might raise an eyebrow. Australia is both vulnerable to climate change and in a position to do something about it. We are the world's biggest coal exporter and have the biggest uranium reserves. Coal exporters like Vietnam are pulling out so coal importers like China will have trouble sourcing coal other than from Australia. We should tell them the amounts will decline henceforth.

A lot is going to happen between now and 2020. It is thought crude oil could be nearly 75% depleted. World coal production will have hit a plateau. Much of our LNG will have been exported. Globally several Katrina magnitude extreme weather events will have occurred as well as regional crop failures. I think an immediate effort to decarbonise is a good each way bet.

Taswegian,

According to US Energy Information Administration data, China’s production of coal in 2008 reached 2795 million tons and slightly exceeded the country’s consumption in the same year (2773 million tons). The Steelguru website indicates that China’s exports of coal last year totalled 45.4 million tons compared with imports of 40.4 million tons (i.e., exports and imports are equivalent to only 1–2% of China’s production. Other sources refer to Chinese plans to expand its coal production capacity to 3330 million tons in the years immediately ahead. The notion that Australia is in a position to “do something” about climate change by telling China that this country’s minor contribution to its coal supplies will decline is highly problematic– the most likely consequence would be to force China to delay the closure of some of its most inefficient mines in order to maintain production from domestic sources.

Your forecasts of 75% depletion of crude oil and a plateauing of world coal production by 2020 are only one view of many, and they don’t accord with the view which is implicit in the high mainstream emissions projections which we are constantly being told are being exceeded

Perhaps Alan's forecasting will be more accurate this time than he was in December of last year, when he said on this forum:

"A very severe downturn is inevitable" (referring to Australia), and "government handouts like Australia's $10.4 billion consumer package will fail to trigger the hoped for sustained lift in consumption".

And of course the inevitable: "the best government policy is to stand back and allow market forces to correct the imbalances in place".

Things could still go wrong yet of course but it shows just how wrong an economist can be, especially when they subscribe to articles of faith such as: governments are always bad. Free markets are always TEH AWSUM!