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The ecology of the financial crisis : Comments
By Henry Thornton, published 30/6/2009A recent paper draws conclusions about how to contain the GFC based on the history of epidemics such as yellow fever, cholera and flu.
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However there is a critical difference which makes positive science problematic. Economics rests on subjective human value judgments. These cannot be quantified and therefore cannot be measured. We cannot measure, for example, the unit of satisfaction that a person derives from entering into this transaction, and compare it with that.
Yes we can measure prices. Is it not true that I have the market report for sheep at the Bega saleyards? It is true. However that is economic history, not economic theory. Those data are based on a peculiar concatenation of events which is never to be repeated: the number and quality of sheep; the buyers and their subjective scale of values; their other options. All these are constantly changing.
We are not able to derive from statistical studies of economic history, propositions of human action with universal application; whereas we can do so from economic theory.
That is why all the schools of brainy econometricians, with all their complicated mathematical models, have not been able to come up with one single general proposition of economic theory from those historical studies. Study the Peruvian potato crop of 1742 all you will, and compare it with that of Dubbo in 2009 and nup - nothing of value for economic theory will sprout (sprout - get it?) therefrom.
This error of method - 'scientism' - is why the Keynesians and Monetarists, with all their mathematical methods and postive science, presided over the biggest financial crisis in the history of the world; didn't see it coming; are clueless how to fix it; and persist in error.
No sir, let us observe the wisdom of Hippocrates - 'first do no harm'.
No policy prescriptions for the wisdom of central planners, please: they are what caused the problem in the first place.