Pynchme,

The article you provided the link is an author's opinion which gives no references what so ever. It also does not account for all the men that have HIV.

Also most of the women with HIV have not been raped.

Most HIV transmission is through consensual condom free sex, and the fact that condom usage is low is primarily because there are Pr*cks running around saying that they are not always effective, the pope being one of them.

Dear SM,

I didn't say "most"; I said, "...to some significant degree...".

The author refers to enough research and reports that you may check the sources yourself.

There are plenty of sources of alternative information as well that echo the same information; as well as noting the apallingly high rates of sexual assault.

I consider rape, especially of children, much more offensive than promiscuity.

Pynchme,

There are no references to any research which suggests that there are 500 000 rapes per year.

The SA bureau of statistics on rape show that there are between 20 000 and 25 000 rapes reported each year.

Surveys of women reveal that the reporting of rape is low and that the rapes are estimated to be between 55 000 and 100 000.

Worst case scenario, with 20% HIV positive males and an infection rate per rape est to be about 20% (probably closer to 10%) this would give 4000 cases of HIV in SA due to rape.

Considering that there are about 600 000 people infected per year, this number is not statistically significant.

Nearly all HIV infections in Africa are from heterosexual consensual sex.

Condoms save lives.

Links with real research:

http://hivinsite.ucsf.edu/global?page=cr09-sf-00

http://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/statsdownload.asp?ppn=Rape&SCH=2350

http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=18743575

Shadow Minister -

While I agree that the figures quoted by Pinchme have no provenance and so may be spurious, I also have very little faith in the official statistics either.

As a journalist in S.A. and also as a volunteer Hospice worker there I know first hand that such statistics are unreliable. The figure of an 18% overall HIV infection rate for 2008 is, in fact, lower than the estimated rate ten years ago. Which is clearly not possible.

All HIV statistic in RSA must actually be regarded as estimates: you must acknowledge:-

a) that thousands of deaths directly attributable to HIV are entered into death certificates with cause of death given as the final illness e.g. pneumonia.

b) that many rural communities refuse to acknowledge HIV,

c) that thousands of HIV infections go unrecorded.

While I agree with you as to the main causes of infection, I also think that Pynchme has a point too.

With no rape crisis centres outside of major cities, with the societal attitudes to rape, police insensitivity, and the very real threats of further violence, the fact that rape is endemic throughout Southern Africa is virtually unknown to the rest of the world. Of the many women I knew personally who had been raped, only one - a minor who was publicly pack raped - was reported.

As journalists we were specifically instructed that rape - along with car thefts and break-ins, were not classified as "news" by the early 'Nineties. Some local papers ran a little statement which gave the weekly numbers of these crimes in a particular area: most did not bother. The rape of a black woman became "non-news" long before that.

So yes, I fully support your comments, but I also think that Pynchme's opinion is valid too, and that transmission of HIV through rape is not a negligable factor.

Romany,

I don't disagree with you at all. In fact whilst I say the figures are "statistically insignificant", it does not mean that the numbers are not horrific, and I was not trying to imply that rape and HIV subsequently caused was not a huge issue and significant in its own right.

When I took the official stats I doubled them. And when I compared them to the 600 000 HIV cases I nearly trebled them again to 10 000, and this figure is still so small comparatively that rape cannot be used as an excuse for trying to stop the distribution of condoms.

Shadow Minister - I apologise - it seems I misunderstood.

Just out of curiosity though: if you had to put a figure down to represent the probable numbers of HIV+ persons in RSA, what would your personal assessment be?

Personally, I don't think we have a hope in hell of ever knowing for sure. But I'd be interested in knowing if my experiences have led me to have an unduly pessimistic guesstimate of my own.