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Is climate change serious enough yet Mr Rudd? : Comments
By John Hepburn, published 12/2/2009Bushfires and flooding: in the past week we have caught a terrifying glimpse of our future on a warming planet.
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Posted by bigmal, Thursday, 12 February 2009 9:16:01 PM
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Ok, I'll try to respond to as many of the points raised as a I can. Firstly I'd like to say that I'm sorry if I offended anyone. It wasn't my intent. I guess I am angry too. One of my friends is missing after the fires around Marysville so I have a small sense of what some people must be going through.
I'll ignore the general vitriol and personal slander and will try to take the substantive issues in turn. 1. Regarding climate change denial, this is not even worth discussing. Some people still think the earth is flat. They are entitled to the view but it is no longer important to anyone else that they hold these views. There is plenty of evidence for anyone who cares to look. 2. I stated clearly that it is impossible to say that these events were caused by climate change but that the likelihood and intensity of extreme events will increase with climate change. It is not just my opinion that climate change will lead to more frequent extreme weather events and bushfires. Dr David Karoly, the Victorian Government's climate advisor was quoted in The Age as saying "The risk of increased intensity and increased frequency of fires is real, it is already occurring and it will get worse under climate change." Dr Mark Adams from the Bushfire CRC made similar comments. Or you can see the editorial today from the Firefighters union http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/face-global-warming-or-lives-will-be-at-risk-20090211-84od.html?page=-1 Or you could call any insurance company and ask for their data. 3. One person mentioned that I referred to floods in Bangladesh as unusual when they are common occurrence. This is probably a fair point and I should have been clearer in saying “more extensive and destructive than usual flooding in Bangladesh”. Posted by jdmh, Thursday, 12 February 2009 9:36:28 PM
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CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS COMMENT
4. Another person said that the article was emotional. Yes it is an emotional article. I am actually quite angry about climate change and the fact that despite the obvious evidence, very little is actually being done about it. Lots of talk, lots of money being spent, but very little of the action that is required to cut emissions. No doubt this emotion won’t make sense to people who don’t think climate change is happening, but for people who have read the science closely you’ll probably know what I mean. 5. Somebody else mentioned that I did’t talk about solutions – only problems. Well, it was a short article and I didn’t want to cover too many different issues. The solutions for cutting greenhouse pollution are many. Firstly we should stop wasting so much energy. This would save us money as well. Secondly, we should start urgently replacing coal power with renewable energy. This would have the added benefit of creating many more new jobs in the energy sector and would decrease both local pollution from coal plants as well as the impact of coal mining on groundwater and rivers. We should do this in a way that supports coal dependent communities in making the transition. Thirdly, we need to look at land management (both forestry and agriculture) to find ways of increasing storage of carbon in soil and forests, while maintaining biodiversity. There are lots of other things too but this is a starting point. 6. As for the issue about native vegetation management in Victoria, I agree with the comments about it being sensible to clear trees from close to houses in fire prone areas. I’m not familiar with local planning issues in Victoria apart from the articles I have read in the papers this past week, so I will leave these questions for others with expertise in this area. I hope this answers some of the questions that you all raised. John Posted by jdmh, Thursday, 12 February 2009 9:38:20 PM
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From what i have seen, the young people seem to have a small understanding on the matter. The best of the best say, Its a natural way of the planet, and I must agree! Don'T worry about CJ and the joke I have played, old farts is what they are. NO offense!
Climate change, is a natural happening and NO scientist" in the lower level, is worth listening. Have a look around you and tell me everything is going fine? To be frank I would have to say the panic is a stir up of entire ingredience of misbelief and if I may be so humble, you are all right and you are all wrong. Sometimes you all put your heads down and work very hard and the secret to success is to listen to no one but yourselves. I am so proud of the new thoughts and how the simple wind-backs that everyone does on this site and it is regrettable the common evolutionary drive of the old fashioned is our complete disability. Here is some private thoughts! Imagine if the world was one. If you can think upon this, just imagine how far you would go. I share the same world with all and I cannot find a fault in any of you, so why are you moving so slow. Evolution! Here the bells of clarity and throw away political views of the 19 century, stop thinking of yesterday and start thinking of tomorrow, we are with you, and we are right beside you with or with the best we can muster in our evolutionary position. EVO Posted by EVO2, Thursday, 12 February 2009 10:46:45 PM
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Its unfortunate that such a pressing issue continuously attracts those who wish to base their conjecture on pure denial of the scientific consensus that Climate Change is occurring and is man made. I'm no expert on the topic and im somewhat weary of debating the scientific veracity of global warming, because I believe that it should be left to the experts, but by the same token its a theme that should be taken extremely seriously by both the public and our leaders. The Victorian bushfires are an unfortunate tragedy, and my condolence go out to the families that endured pain and suffering, but by ignoring the linkages with Climate Change means that our future will continue to hold increasingly dimmer prospects and will thus create spiteful future generations who will be unable to enjoy what makes Australia great.
I share the author of this articles anger and concern and hope that this tragedy will act as a wake up call for our leaders in Canberra. Posted by peachy, Friday, 13 February 2009 2:46:06 AM
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I take from Johns rebuttal that he has closed his mind to any new research regarding ongoing climate change unless it matches his bias.
An unfortunate point for the AGW proponents is that since we are now so close or have past the "tipping point", according to their beliefs, any emission from wild fire adds to the global CO2 burden. The forests burnt will take decades to recover the carbon emitted taking the recovery time line beyond the tipping point to disaster. Senator Brown has always discount the emissions of wildfire as he offered that these forests would recapture the carbon in the fullness of time leaving a balanced carbon ledger. If the tipping point is here he will no longer be able to use this as a defence of past Greens policy on Prescribed Burning. Fine fuels (<8mm) is the only thing that land managers can effect to reduce the risk to all life and property. The claim that climate change will cause more wildfires only works if you have fuel to burn. Under current policies is will soon not be a concern. Posted by Little Brother, Friday, 13 February 2009 7:04:20 AM
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Why Feb 7th ? Well for Adelaide it is the date when the summer mean max values peak,at around a mean max of 29.8, as they would in a climate like Adelaides. By referring to a base average and using anomalies, then it would show big differences
But from the University of Melbournes Earth Science web site for extremes of temperature, the record maximum temperatures for Adelaide occur earlier in the year, and in 1912 and 1943.
Further similar record mean maximums values occurred in 1899 and 1943.
Whats even more intersting is that one day day later in the month,on the 8th Feb, and only as recently as 1996, there was a record low of 19.6 so there is a difference if 10.6 anyway.
Not quite the same story.