DreamOn

I would think there is no way the Greens will do a deal with the Libs. Their members would go crazy; and those who swung from Labor to the Greens (which explains the over 9% swing against Labor) wanted to send a message to the ALP, but not elect the Libs.

So I think the real debate is will the greens accept a ministry and go into coalition with the ALP, or will it guarantee supply to Labor but not join the Government, allowing the Greens to criticise and vote against the ALP, from the Left. I think the latter has support among some influential Greens in the ACT. Bob Brown I think favours going into coalition.

Update on ACT election. It looks like it will be 7 Labor, 7 libs and 3 greens. The swing against Labor was above 9 per cent, the swing against the Libs about 3%, the swing to the Greens over 6% and the swing to others about 6%.

The ALP vote is about 37%, the Libs 31% and the Greens over 15%.

The swing to the Greens was, I believe, mainly a protest against Labor and its school closures, dreadful management of the health system, white elephant Gunghalin Drive Extension (which after two years of being built immediately required a doubling of lanes) and a useless public transport system. I think environmental awareness was icing on the cake for the Greens.

So my take is that there was a swing to the left with the election of 3 greens to hold the balance of power. (The swing to others, who ended up with about 15 per cent of the vote was a swing all over the place, including to very very conservative elements.)

So the electorate moves left, but the ALP, because of the peculiarities of the ACT electoral system, has moved to the right. One of the left wing ALP members in my electorate has lost his seat to another ALP member from the right faction.

This means the balance - even between left and right with the Chief Minister in the middle - is now skewed towards the right. This means the right may well punt Andrew Barr from their faction into the leadership of the Party and Government at some stage in the future, at the expense of Katy Gallagher from the left and current deputy chief Minister.

The rumour is that Bob McMullan (a local Federal ALP member) will retire at the next Federal election (in 2010) and the present chief Minister, John Stanhope, will take his place, leaving the battle for Chief Minister between Barr from the right and Gallagher from the Left. The Greens should refuse to support Barr as Chief Minister.

The Greens are debating whether to go into coalition or not.

Passy,

Interesting rumour about Jon Stanhope taking Bob McMullan's spot in Federal Parliament. I've got to say this makes sense as Stanhope was the only thing keeping ACT Labor relevant while Bob hasn't really done much for his constituents.

The resulting problem for ACT Labor is that Katy Gallagher might be seen as being too soft as leader while Andrew Barr is seen as being too hard, especially after the school closures he was responsible for.

As for the Greens, getting into positions of power will make or break them.

I saw your letter to the Canberra Times this morning and couldn't disagree. John Hargreaves is flat-footed and hopelessly out of touch.

All this is fertile ground for the Liberals to regain power at the next election given that Zed Seselja is perfectly positioned to strike.

Thanks RobP.

An alternative scenario might be that Stanhope has had enough and quits politics in say two years time and Barr takes over.

Funnily enough, I think Barr's handling of school closures will win him kudos among the right of the party in being able to carry through tough Government decisions. Funny how the right doesn't question the rationality of such decisions or the loss of community involved.

I'm not sure about the Libs. Do you think they will be electable with Young gung-ho liberals fresh out of neo-liberal school with socially very conservative views?

I just don't know. Of course anything can happen over four years. Just look at NSW. Win an election. Then implode.

While I see the vote for the Greens as being a swing by voters to the Left, I still find it hard to call the greens a left-wing party. They do not have links to the trade union movement or more generally to workers.

Let's see what they do with the balance of power in a time of economic uncertainty, if not crisis.

A further update. It is possible the Greens could win a fourth seat at the expense of the Liberals.


If this came about this would mean ALP 7, Libs 6 and Greens 4.

In terms of overall percentage votes, it would also mean the ALP is over-represented by about half an MLA, the libs about right, and the greens over-represented by 1.

The losers are the 45 minor party and independent candidates (mostly conservatives) whose 15 per cent of the vote all up dissipated during preference distribution.

The winners? The greens. This next four years - with the balance of power - will be the making (or breaking) of them in the ACT.

The Greens did win the fourth seat, at the expense of the Liberals.

So the ACT Assembly will be 7 ALP, 6 Liberals and 4 Greens.

Bob Brown in The Sunday Canberra Times refused to rule out two ministries (there are five altogether at the moment) or a deal with the Liberals.

As I have said before I think the best position for the Greens is to guarantee supply and confidence to the ALP and not take any Ministry. This leaves them free to vote against the Government on issues they disagree with them about.

The ALP here is not keen on the Michael Moore option - a minister who can disagree with cabinet and vote against the proposal, ie not accept cabinet solidarity.

I assume the talk about a deal with the Libs is bluster to get a better deal out of the ALP. If the Greens are serious about the Liberals, then they will lose a lot of supporters who specifically voted Green to punish Labor but who could never bring themselves to vote Liberal.