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The Forum > Article Comments > 21st century reality - Australia out in the cold > Comments

21st century reality - Australia out in the cold : Comments

By Reg Little, published 25/7/2008

There is a worldwide rapid process of change that will leave Australia out in the cold.

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An article giving plenty of food for thought. The "American Century" articulated by Henry Booth Luce has come to an end and America has not realised, or is only slowing realising, that its economic power is slipping away. Europe is essentially finished as a world power grouping. The massive resources of Russia and Brazil combined with China's dynamism will see Europe and America fade into second position in the emerging power structure of the world.
Posted by hotair, Friday, 25 July 2008 4:20:08 PM
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Big subject. History tells us that empires have a used by date. I tend to think that instead of Europe and the US winding down, they will ratchet up their economies and compete with China.

No doubt that the USA is in major financial strife. Getting out of Iraq wouldn't hurt.

America need massive retooling and infrastructure rebuilding. It's a major job and will take at least 30-40 years. In my experience though (and I'm fairly old), once America gets going, once it has a mission, it's an economic juggernaut.

I don't agree at all re the fall of English. It's actually wiping out smaller languages in many southern hemisphere countries, especially in the Pacific and New Guinea. The problem isn't the rise of China, the problem there is the fact that English is so ubiqitious.
Posted by Cheryl, Friday, 25 July 2008 5:26:19 PM
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It's all a bit drama-queen.

>>In other words, we are likely witnessing the beginning of a rapid process of change that will leave Australia in a world that is totally unlike anything experienced in its written history<<

Well, like, duh.

Of course things will be different tomorrow. That is the nature of life.

But the impact on our daily lives will, I suggest, be almost imperceptible.

Unless you believe that one of these new up-and-comers is going to invade these shores, what, exactly, is the problem?

And why do I suspect the answer to all these niggling questions will be "read my book"...?
Posted by Pericles, Friday, 25 July 2008 5:56:47 PM
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Relax, folks,

Australia will not be left out in the cold.

We are still, and for the forseeable future will be, the only country in the world with the four vital things. These are:

1. A surplus of food.

2. A surplus of minerals.

3. A surplus of energy.

4. Most important of all, a sea boundary.

She'll be right, mate.
Posted by plerdsus, Saturday, 26 July 2008 7:36:55 AM
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Reg, could reckon you might be the one us more virile old thinkers are looking for.

Am a retired wheat cockie, going on 88, gained Honours in the Social Sciences also in later years, and do dare to suggest that just lately our OLO has been aping our media services and giving priority to already generalised stuff.

I also do wonder how a virtual US victory can be reported in Iraq not long after a Washington Post shock report about a US gunship swooping in arresting a group of Shias and letting a group of former Sunni insurgents go free.

Also there was little media cover about the discovery recently in US government archives about Henry Kissinger warning Richard Nixon that if Israel went militarily nuclear it would upset the balance of power in the ME to the point of war.

Such possibly dangerous news, sadly, seems to get slidden sideways also in our OLO programs.

Regards BB, Buntine, WA
Posted by bushbred, Saturday, 26 July 2008 1:50:49 PM
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Thanks Hotair and BB.

Otherwise it seems that Australian comforts and certainties, long nurtured by Anglo-American intellectual apartheid, will continue to shelter most of us from a rapidly shifting reality. Sadly, these comforts and certainties will not stop those with more energy, knowledge and purpose from crossing the waters, attracted by all our goodies, tripping us up and knocking us down. Pity that so many think glib cracks are an adequate response to the gathering challenge.
Posted by Reginald, Saturday, 26 July 2008 5:38:36 PM
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While USA is in decline, European Union become stronger and even more strong.

Last month's meeting in Parish for the Mediterranean Union, where was all the leaders from Mediterranean Countries, (except from Lybia) and Last month's Summit of EU-Russia in Hanty Mansiisk has Proved that European Union is becoming the new superpower.
Do not forget that 4 of the 8 richest countries on our planet are member from European Union.

Australians have no reasons to worry for their future.
plerdsus has right Plus because we come, (more than 90%) from Europe and European Union could not forget or ignore our interests. (most of Australians are European citizens too!)
I hope none Australian leader will convert our country to a Chinese territory, direct or indirect.

I would like to see Australia as full member from European Union.

Antonios Symeonakis
Adelaid
Posted by ASymeonakis, Saturday, 26 July 2008 9:13:27 PM
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There is another set of news criteria that is even less reported in the news ... and that is the growing movement of the world’s ordinary people away from genuflecting to shifting hegemonic authorities and into an international order of grassroots partnership and co-operation.

The peace movement, the environmental movement, the sustainability movement, the human rights movement, the anti-globalisation movement, the world indigenous rights movement, feminism, the growing social justice branches of the mainstream Churches, to name a few, are sidelining the petty power struggles of the big players and creating their own new world order.
Posted by SJF, Sunday, 27 July 2008 9:23:07 AM
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We have a trade surplus with China, we have got rid of Howard, we have a prime minster who was a diplomat and posted to China for a time, and who is the only western leader who comes close to speaking their lingo.

Anyone with half a brain can see the USA is in trouble, like it or not Europe is the worlds largest economy. Yes the world is changing, increasingly sovereign funds ( ours is called the future fund) are being used to stabilize the monetary system.

I really can't see your problem; we are part of the new word order, big it up, ship it out, enjoy it and stop complaining.
Posted by charles1, Sunday, 27 July 2008 10:06:27 AM
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Go for it, SJF, but as well favouring some of the more humanistic lessons of the sermon on the mount, maybe we should also admit to sharing much of the blame for the causes of today's worrisome hatred and terrorism.

Cheers, BB
Posted by bushbred, Sunday, 27 July 2008 10:08:35 AM
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My guess is this dismal outlook will become more popular as it becomes obvious just how bad a mess the US has managed to get itself into. We will be seeing more and more articles touting the end of Western Civilisation as we know it. Its a depressing thought.

The US is certainly an enigma. Its behaviour often reminds me of an out of control manic-depressive teenager. Right now its just coming to the end of a manic phase and is beginning to count the costs. My guess it will take a few years to recover, but recover it will. Its simply too dynamic and too energetic to do otherwise.

When it does finally recover the world will look a little different, China having established itself as an economic powerhouse, joining Japan and Korea. And possibly a few new resource wars in progress, such as China and India at loggerheads over the water from the Himalayas. My gut reaction is, so what? Business as usual.

In any case, I do hope there is at least one sliver lining to the cloud the US finds itself in now. I hope the pain this time around was enough to prevent them from electing a pathological liar to a second term for a few decades to come.
Posted by rstuart, Monday, 28 July 2008 11:19:21 AM
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More of the same truths to clear the global political air, R'Stuart.

Yep, mate, reckon we still need America, even though they are still finding it hard to tone down the wild western cum righty religous cum mafia strain.

Cheers - BB, Buntine, WA
Posted by bushbred, Monday, 28 July 2008 12:53:25 PM
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Sorry Reg, but you have only yourself to blame.

>>...it seems that Australian comforts and certainties, long nurtured by Anglo-American intellectual apartheid, will continue to shelter most of us from a rapidly shifting reality. Sadly, these comforts and certainties will not stop those with more energy, knowledge and purpose from crossing the waters, attracted by all our goodies, tripping us up and knocking us down. Pity that so many think glib cracks are an adequate response to the gathering challenge.<<

You made such an extremely loose and superficial case, it is hardly a wonder that some will say "so what?"

Where is the threat?

Let's have a look at your concerns.

"a possibility, where international financial and institutional norms might be determined more in Beijing, Tokyo, New Delhi and even Moscow than in traditional, English speaking centres like London, Washington and New York."

It is certainly a possibility. What you fail to communicate is exactly how this might affect us.

"Western concern over human rights is used often in the English language media to confuse and mislead about contests where American economic interests are losing out to those of China."

One market force gives way to another, one weakens as another strengthens. And this a problem for whom, exactly?

"BRIC unites the major economic growth centres with more than half the world’s population, the role of which in international affairs will grow... Somewhat troublingly for Australia, these four nations all compare favourably with Australia in their potential for mineral commodity production. Moreover, two of them are today’s most important markets for mineral commodities."

Again, you state some facts, but fail to explain why we should be trembling in our shoes.

"the AMF, which has the potential to begin the unraveling of the whole international institutional system put in place by the British and Americans after victory in 1945. This includes the United Nations, the World Trade Organization and all other global institutions where Anglo-American power is disproportionate to 21st century realities."

And therefore...?

Just crying "the sky is falling" doesn't help at all.
Posted by Pericles, Monday, 28 July 2008 1:36:46 PM
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Pericles, thanks for a spot of good sense.

Mr Little appears to assume that China will just go from strength to strengh.

Can one make that assumption? China is no monolithic power.

Let's not forget the history of the USSR.
Posted by Seneca, Tuesday, 29 July 2008 5:18:29 PM
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Reginald,

In your view what should Australia be doing vis-a-vis China "not to be left out in the cold"?

It apears that given time the local Chinese elite will colonise Australia from within.......no need for costly overseas invasions.
Posted by Seneca, Friday, 1 August 2008 12:39:02 PM
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