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The Forum > Article Comments > Whither peak oil at Rudd's 2020 Summit? > Comments

Whither peak oil at Rudd's 2020 Summit? : Comments

By Michael Lardelli, published 10/4/2008

It's widely accepted and little-talked-about that we are running out of oil. The 2020 Summit continues that silence.

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Robbo5; From what I have read most of our oil imports do not
come from OPEC countries, however some does.

We import it because we have no choice, it is import or introduce
rationing now. We have a little over 50% of our needs.
We are committed to importing more each year and paying ever higher
prices for what we import.

We do not have the enormous resources of oil that the conspiracy
theory pushers insist are sitting out in the desert just capped and
waiting for the prices to get higher.
Well on second thoughts, maybe there are capped wells waiting for
the prices to reach $500 barrel and so become economic.
They won't help much however, it is just too big a problem for a
couple of new fields to do more than slow down the fall in supplies.

It is this dismal future that the politicians are too frightened to
face up to. As much as I dislike the thought the Greens seem to be
the only political party to recognise the problem for what it is.

Their problem is they are so wrapped up in global warming that their
cures are worse than than the disease.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 11 April 2008 7:23:11 AM
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Peak oil is “just” an element of attitudinal dysfunction. As the author himself and others have intimated, the direction of world and Australian society is the fundamental problem.
The concept of perpetual growth is like using fossil fuel to drive a four wheel drive vehicle - into a bog stretching beyond the horizon, and towards an unknown destination. As experienced country traveler Ludwig might tell us, it indicates an unhealthy attitude of mind.
If a statesman were steering society he would, rather than continue on towards insurmountable problems, change direction towards firmer ground. Unfortunately it is evident that, as Peak Oil bites increasingly severely, our current leaders will be urging us to get out and push, ever and ever harder – in the same old direction.
It will be ever the same while they have a fixation for taking a three wise monkeys attitude to the issue. The call for submissions to the 20/20 Group on Population, Sustainability, Climate Change and Water framework asks “How do we plan future population growth at a national and regional level”. This carries the assumption that increasing population is to be fostered, without cessation, both at the national and regional levels. That, by 2020, will contribute another Sydney, in population terms, to impact on our oil needs
Posted by colinsett, Friday, 11 April 2008 12:51:04 PM
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It does look like oil really did peak when Kenneth Deffeyes said it would - in 2006. It was odd really - one man against the might of the US Geological Survey. And he proved them all wrong. There must be a biography in there somewhere.

If it peaked in 2006 then the price is going to keep rising. It was at a new highs over Easter as I recall. My guess is it moving faster than the political machinery can keep up with it - especially with distractions like Global Warming.

I imagine oil will reach $2/litre in this electoral cycle. The pain will become too much to ignore. Really, a year or two isn't going to make that much difference. And if it doesn't happen, well then it was all much ado about nothing.
Posted by rstuart, Friday, 11 April 2008 9:24:00 PM
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I was hoping to go to the Summit and have been talking about peak oil since 1973. But I didn't make it either. I had a former Premier and a current Minister as my referees.
I think we now have a good story to be able to tell about how you can rebuild and extend a successful railway in a modern Australian city, but there is almost no-one going from Perth and certainly no-one who knows about the train. I cant believe that they would be as clever as conspiring to keep us out and that its just a problem of choosing from a large list. But it doesn't mean we dont let everyone know that their choice of attendees is rather biased.
Peter Newman
Posted by PWGN, Saturday, 12 April 2008 11:25:41 PM
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That is interesting Peter. I would have thought that you were one of the most eminently qualified people to be involved in this summit.

I wonder if it was because there were just so many good applicants or whether there was indeed a deliberate bias in the selection process.

Actually, I don’t wonder at all (:>|

As Colinsett points out, there are fundamental problems with the Summit, evident in the wording of some of the questions, which indicate the innate desire to continue with business as usual in some key ways and to not even explore some of essential changes to the ways we operate that we need to make in order to deal with climate change, peak oil, sustainability, etc.
Posted by Ludwig, Sunday, 13 April 2008 6:50:42 AM
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I hear many conflicting stories about Australian domestic oil supply.

The author says that SA has only 10 days supply at any one time and is reliant on deliveries from Singapore. Others say that we produce less than half of our own needs. Others say we produce around 75%. Still others say that we produce most of our own oil and have the probable capacity to supply 100% of our own needs for decades to come, and that in addition, Australia is still mostly unexplored for petroleum.

These widely differing opinions can't all be correct.

My grandfather worked on the exploration rigs in western Queensland in the 1950's and he recalled no shortage of successfull strikes. They simply capped the wells with a small concrete block and marked the co-ordinates on a map. What size the reserves actually were is probably anyone's guess.

I'm not denying peak oil or saying that we shouldn't breaking a leg to get as many working alternatives in place as soon as possible, I would just like to know the truth as to how much oil we actually have here in this country. If we are in fact, sitting on a reserve surplus to our own small needs, then the parity system is a rort. Our oil does not need to travel halfway round the world to get here and is pretty safe from terrorists and middle-eastern wars. We should not be paying the exorbitant world price if the stuff truly is abundant here.

Anyone know much about this?
Posted by Fozz, Sunday, 13 April 2008 8:06:12 PM
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