Julian Cribbs' article is excellent. New Scientist has been reporting on a new type of black stem rust that is moving out of Africa into the Near East and is set to devastate wheat crops worldwide. Only the Chinese government is taking any notice, according to this week's update. Those big grain surpluses are a thing of the past. World grain stocks are at their lowest level in 34 years in terms of days of supply (see the Worldwatch Institute site for the details). Growing prosperity in India and China has led to a desire for more meat and/or dairy products and hence a diversion of more grain to animal feed. There is also beginning to be competition from the biofuels industry.

However, Horus is also right. Most of the world is in a Malthusian trap and always has been. Technological advances occur, but the benefits are then promptly wiped out as population growth restores the customary level of misery. The high living standards enjoyed after the Black Death were not matched until the late 19th century, despite more than 500 years of progress. The Green Revolution doubled and in some cases tripled the amount of grain that could be grown from a plot of land, but there is still hunger, largely because the gains in many cases were simply translated into more people. Unless this issue is addressed, addressing the others will ultimately be a waste of time.