"People should be warned that gas guzzlers bought now will be prohibitively expensive to run and

have a nil resale value in just a few years."

These are key points.

Coalition and Labor governments have avoided saying these things especially about poor resale value. Instead both sides of politics have subsidised or bailed out makers of Big Aussie Sixes.

Toyota Corollas and Camrys seem to be running rings around Ford and Holden's bigger Sixes but Ford and Holden appear unwilling to attempt to make such smaller cars in Australia.

It appears easier for Ford and Holden to accept government money like Mistubishi did before it failed.

Pete
(Nissan 1.8 Tiida owner).

A good article and more relative to ordinary people then the series of climate change articles appearing on OLO. Many issues can be generated from this article.

Lyn. Stop talking about public transport as a solution. Public transport does not take one from door to door and never will. Instead advocate a halt in population growth.

Cycling (not mentioned) is also not a solution. I am a cyclist and climbing a hill on the way to the office is hard and sweaty work. Besides, all the people who will ever be cyclists are on bikes now. The rest are not fit enough and have no interest in being fit enough. Once again - advocate a stop to the growth in population .

More roads, bridges and tunnels simply ease a problem for 2 or 3 years – and at enormous expense. We must stop the population growth or go under.

Finally, the Mitsubishi 380 with its 3.8 liter engine was a stupid $250 million mistake When the car was still on the drawing board the rise in fuel costs was well on the way up. Don’t forget the government handouts of hundreds of millions to Mitsubishi. The taxpayer paid for that gamble that went wrong

Trust the Australian Democrats to prove that once again they are a thinking, intelligent and concerned group of politicians. Which is why Australians have canned them at the last few elections.They are pearls before swine.

Well said, Lynn.

The University of Tasmania has developed bolt-on attachments to inject hydrogen into diesel and petrol-engined vehicles. Why isn't our goverment jumping on this as a road to the future hydrogen economy? Australia now imports 1 000 000 cars per year for 21 000 000 people, costing on average $20 000 000 000 per year much of which is lost to foreign corporations. How stupid can you get?

Old cars can be retro-fitted to run on mixed hydrogen and petrol, if we want to reduce CO2. And for those who whinge about the price of petrol, beer is 7 to 10 times more expensive and no-one has stopped drinking beer. Or bottled water for that matter. So tax petrol to $4.50 per litre (beer in my local pub is $15 per litre) and put the tax back into building a hydrogen economy. Use solar power to crack water.

The real problem with Mitsubishi goes back a long way into inferior engine manufacture.
I really believe they were cheating on the public by not making engines that lasted.
For years I watched all of the older Mitsubishi Magnas and they all blew smoke.
My mechanic said to me, when I asked about Mitsubishi, "Dont buy them. They wont last".
Many Magna owners would also have known this junk engine problem and have steared away from further purchases.
Mitsubishi reaped what they sowed... and now theyre gone.

Unfortunately, cars sold in Australia since around 1990 are "Capitalist cars." They've been made in such a way so that home servicing has become impossible to most people thanks to the incorporation of computers, ABS and the like and all in the name of fuel efficiency. This earns more money for the dealerships and service people.

Our roads are fast becoming clogged with vehicles in very poor condition as many people in outlying suburbs buy into a secondhand market dealing with such cars. I know of several families who struggle with car maintenance woes. The spiraling cost of food and fuel does little to alleviate the problem, so they drive around in cars that are far from 'in tune' or in a dangerous state of repairs simply because 'dad' can't do the necessary work any more.

I agree mostly with Healthwatcher, but disagree with the stance on public transport. In the near future and due to peak oil, public transport will become over used in relation to capacity. The working class will no longer be able to afford fuel for their cars and some will lose their jobs because of it. Those living close to PT will be forced to use it, but it will fast become unviable due to overcrowding if more PT infrastructure isn't forthcoming very soon. This needs to be implemented NOW!

HenryV111, we really need to get away from the myth of Hydrogen. It's so intensive to manufacture, it actually uses as much energy to make as is created by burning it. It's an energy carrier, not an energy source. Yes, it will have limited application, but considering the rare elements used to crack Hydrogen from water, elements which are becoming even more scarce, we'll never see the day when Hydrogen makes an iota of difference.

People really need to realise that once oil becomes too difficult to extract in quantities necessary to keep up with demand, Western culture and that of developing Nations will change for ever and it won't be a steady ride to the bottom.
Aime.

Hurrah for Lyn and the Democrats, may fortune smile on your courage. Keep your policy proposals current, the MSM is sure to break out of its irrelevance coma eventually.

I appreciate this article was re car industry subsidies in particular, but would have liked more emphasis on not-cars as replacement for oil. Peak oil is not just about how much left of those black liquids, its also about the bigger issue of net energy, or how much energy we bipeds can effectively extract and make use of. Hydrogen & electric cars are not new energy sources, and so don't solve much at all (same applies to biofuels). Looking a bit further forward, what energy we can produce post-peak fossil fuels (coal & natural gas being arguably not more than a few decades behind oil) will be needed for essentials, not fetching McHappy meals in the comfort of my SUV.
In short, peak oil demands cultural change, and instead of alt.fuels should be pushing alt.transport and less transport.

Healthwatcher, i find your dismissal of PT & bikes pretty unconvincing, only a small proportion of population (the infirm) require PT to their door, and local taxi's could solve their PT problem immediately. Nearly all of the rest of us NEED to get more exercise, walking to the train/bus/tram/lightrail/carpool stop is no Mt Everest. As to arriving at work sweaty on yr bike, your employer is obviously still a fossil fool and needs to be encouraged to provide showers. As exercise makes workers more productive should be able get his accountant onside too!

An excellent article from Lyn Allison.

Motor vehicles emit the largest source of CO in Australia.

Perhaps we may eventually, if necessary, take a leaf out of Arnie's book in California where he is taking the Federal government to court for refusing 17 states the right to enforce vehicle manufacturers to produce cleaner cars.

"Cycling (not mentioned) is also not a solution. I am a cyclist and climbing a hill on the way to the office is hard and sweaty work."

Healthworker. I have just the solution for you. Bicycles are now being imported into Australia which appear similar to others, however, there is a battery one can switch to when climbing hills.

Lyn Allison's article proves why the Democrats are a spent force in Australian politics. My goodness how out of touch are these people.

"just three years short of the date by which Australia will have to reach total cuts of about 20 per cent in CO2 emissions."
Ummm I don't think these have been agreed upon yet. Wait for Garnaut's report and Big Kev's (he is the boss not you) say-so before sprouting this.

"the cost of oil will at least double within a year and continue to climb"
This is an easily tested claim Lyn...see you in a year. Price here as at 14/2/2008 is $1.32, so it needs to get to $2.64 in 12 months! Big prediction.

"the 38c/litre freeze on excise in 2001 has kept petrol prices artificially low. It should be lifted and the money spent on public transport."
And you want people to vote for you?? Good luck in the next election, make sure you say this at the ballot box. PS Do you use public transport or a government fleet car? Maybe our pollies should lead the way and forsake their fleet cars in favour of public transport.

"Trust the Australian Democrats to prove that once again they are a thinking, intelligent and concerned group of politicians. Which is why Australians have canned them at the last few elections.They are pearls before swine."
HenryVIII please move somewhere else. I hear the North Pole is becoming habitable.

"And for those who whinge about the price of petrol, beer is 7 to 10 times more expensive and no-one has stopped drinking beer."
Hehe do you drink 70 litres of beer a week?

"So tax petrol to $4.50 per litre"
Want to join the Democrats?

"Perhaps we may eventually, if necessary, take a leaf out of Arnie's book in California..."
Arnie likes to drive an LPG fuelled Hummer, one of the most fuel inefficient cars on the road. Nice example, where is my Hummer?

Some interesting points here. Here's my tuppence worth...

Any source of fuel that derives from fossil sources is going to run out someday (all distillates from crude oil and LPG. The latter Australia has LOTS of).

Whilst it is true that hydrogen requires a lot of energy to be fractionated from water, it may be the cleanest way to use solar electricity to hydrolise it.

We need to be focussing on the potentially unlimited source of thermonuclear energy blasting us every minute - the SUN !!

If it comes to energy overall... I find it stupefying that CSIRO is spending vast amounts of money on solar research for storing such energy in a petrochemical for later burning! Go figure ?

Good article Alison. Re the poster on hydrogen, it actually takes MORE energy to create the stuff than you can ever get out of it. There are no hydrogen mines!

Re cycling, at the ripe old age of 50, I got back on a bike only to discover I was no longer 15! However, within 2 years I was fit enough to do 100km a week, and after 3 years I conquered a Brisbane Hinterland Mountain called Mt Nebo which is 21km all uphill. Twice. By then I was doing 160km a week on my new carbon fibre racer, and there were no hills in Brisbane I could not master.

Given that it's unlikely we'll be able to buy fuel within as little as 5 years (ever heard of PEAK OIL EXPORT? http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6584&page=0) I think we'll have little choice but to get fit, really fit! If I can do it, anybody can.

Mike.

Coorangreeny wrote.......

"Re the poster on hydrogen, it actually takes MORE energy to create the stuff than you can ever get out of it. There are no hydrogen mines!"

I'm guessing that poster was me. I actually agree with you. I was simply being conservative. Being overtly pessimistic tends to frighten those who have recently pulled their heads from the sand to take a good look around.
Aime.

healthwatcher wrote:

> Besides, all the people who will ever be cyclists are on bikes now.

I disagree. I am just about to buy a bike next week -- largely due to hearing repeated messages about how the distances I travel regularly are easily bike-able. If I can be persuaded to make the change, I don't see why other people can't be...

> We must stop the population growth or go under.

I agree, but can't for the life of me think how we go about it. What's your idea?

Let's get this into perspective.

1. We had four (4) motor vehicle plants producing for a population of 20 million with 80 per cent of the market represented by imports. So one plant for just one million of population. RIDICULOUS! What diseconomies of scale!

2. We had the Howard government giving $50 million to the Fishmerman's Bend plant to produce what - a V8 engine? ABSURD.

3.We have a tariff of 10 per cent. So each and every car in Australia has its price increased by 10 per cent, say three thousand dollars, for us to support the local industry. In other words with the local industry supplying just one-fifth of the market, that is fifteen thousand dollars ($15,000) of our money being collected for each Australian-made car! Isnt this ABSURD?

4. We produce very very ordinary cars in direct competition with imports.

Are we for real?

Isnt it time we stopped propping up a moribund activity (as New Zealand did decades ago)? Or if we dont, then at least encourage the production of more sophisticated cars by say increasing the excise on gasoline. Isnt there an gain to us of a higher excise than a $15,000 per car tax to support a dying industry?

Am I missing something?

The arse is about to fall out of the internal combustion engine driven car market. There's no way that the Australian market can or should sustain local production of putative automotive dinosaurs, so the sooner we're out of it the better, I reckon.

Pity about the jobs, but they were unsustainable anyway. Expect more labour movement as oil becomes increasingly scarce in the near future.

I bought a mountain bike about a year ago, and I've ridden it half a dozen times :(

For those of you who don't think hydrogen is a possible fuel. Like oil, it takes a lot of energy to obtain. Australia has a huge area of unuseable land and too much sun keeping it dry. Solar farming can be used to boil water to make steam to drive turbines or create electrictiy directly from solar panels. Electricity can be used to electrolyse water to split it into hydrogen and oxygen. You can try it using a 6-volt battery in your kitchen, just to prove a point. Has anyone done the maths for setting up such a hydrogen economy? I doubt it. Then do the maths, or read someone who has, and report back before you knock ideas because of bigotry and ignorance.

Nuclear power plants can also create electricity, as can wind turbines, as can the "Salter Duck' from waves, as can tidal energy such as has been used in France since the mid-1950s.

Genetic engineering can now greate DNA. We can either modify present bacteria/blue-green algae genetically or soon even make them, so that maybe they can crack water faster than they do now to bubble off hydrogen. A crack-pot idea? Yes, just as was Herr Dr Diesel's first attempt to make an internal combustion engine run on coal-dust, or Leonardo Da Vinci's idea about building a helicopter (and a bicycle for that matter).

HenryVIII, its a bit rich to demand others work up some numbers of your pet theory, i don't think you've looked very far into at all. The embedded energy of solar PV panels is very high, and wheres your water coming from? As you pointed out, 'unused land' is usually so partly cos its dry. Check out
http://www.peakoil.org.au/news/index.php?energy_profit.htm
for sobering analysis of limitations of PV.

What i came back for, "Unemployment figures bolster case for further increase in immigratoin intake - Senator Andrew Bartlett" in media today.. oh Andrew!! What cornucopian pipedream is he living in? The sustainable population of Oz might be less than a million, i don't think anyone except economists has estimated it could be more than 5mil, here we are at 20+mil and Andrew wants more? Can you have a quiet word with him, Lyn?

While the article makes some valid points, the call for yet more government money the help the auto industry misses one important fact. It is precisely the willingness of successive Australian governments to prop up the car industry though measures such as tariffs, subsidies and favourable tax laws that have protected it from the need to change an ultimately led to its current predicament.

As Lyn points out, the FBT rules encourage drivers of “company cars” to drive as many kilometres possible. They also favour relatively large, expensive and fuel-inefficient cars such as falcons and commodores, most of which are sold as fleet or lease cars. This of course also filters into the stock available for the 2nd hand market.

In addition to this, Australian car producers have been “protected” behind relatively high tariff walls until quite recently, and still enjoy twice the tariff of other manufactures. This has put imported cars, which include most of the relatively small and fuel-efficient cars on the market, at a relative disadvantage. At least this is better than the old quota system that made the importation of any small vehicle non-economic.

Governments should remove all protection and subsidies for Australian car manufacturing and make companies try to make a living selling cars people actually want. In combination with realistic fuel prices that reflect the cost of burning fuel – especially once we get an emissions trading scheme – we’ll quickly see the market become more responsive and more responsible

It will be an interesting test of the new Labor government if they feel they can get away with keeping the tariff at 10 per cent, effectively raising $15,000 for each and every car that is made in Australia. Interestingly though it was the Labor governments of Whitlam, Hawke and Keating who brought the tariff down seeing it for what it is - a tax. It was the ineptitude of the subsequent federal and state governments that continue to defer the inevitable.

With the local car manufacturers effectively serving just 4 million of population, it is ridiculous to support four companies with this 'tax' when even one would struggle. Today we are facing a cascade collapse. Australia could be producing a proudly Australian car from ONE plant. Australia could with that car be exporting its image instead of producing tired technology, ordinary cars and at a HUGE revenue raising tax of around 50 per cent for EACH car produced in Australia.

From the article “Third, the 38c/litre freeze on excise in 2001 has kept petrol prices artificially low. It should be lifted and the money spent on public transport.”
“Drivers and car makers also need carrots. “
Thawing out the excise freeze will increase the price of fuel and thus the running cost of cars.

That is no “carrot” for drivers or car manufacturers.

Make your mind up Lynne which one you want but I only hope any increase in fuel costs through higher taxes is reinvested into improving the road infrastructure rather than being squandered on a public transport system which is used 2 hours a day (peak) and runs empty the rest of the time, employing the otherwise indolent and incompetent in a public sheltered workshop.

As for “Our antiquated fringe benefits tax system” is an elaborate system which if the numbers ever came out, the full cost of calculating the tax exceeds the value generated.

The best thing to do with FBT would be to abolish it completely.

“There is no doubt these initiatives would wipe out the local market for big old-fashioned cars so a major overhaul will be necessary.”

I recall the Button plan back in the 1980’s. the only outcome to that plan was the closure of Nissan manufacturing and a brief shot-gun marriage between GM and Toyota where GM got taken from several millions.

Better the government saved all the tax payers money and withdrew from pretending they know what they are doing. Cut the subsidies and arrangements which hold up defunct manufacturers because of pressure from the auto manufacturers and their unions and let “nature” take its course. We would end up paying more for cars but we would have more unneeded “taxes” left in our pockets, instead of being squandered, in our name, on manufacturers subsidies.

One problem, Australia’s domestic market is unsuited to being supported by multiple local car manufacturers. The politicians like to fiddle with the economic process without understanding the full implication of what all the economic knobs do.

Leave the market alone and it will fix itself.

*Better the government saved all the tax payers money and withdrew from pretending they know what they are doing.*

Well exactly. Politicians, fiddling with billions of taxpayers
dollars, as they think they actually know what they are doing,
is usually a disaster.

Better to get rid of payroll tax, so that industry can be a bit
more competitive.

If Eastern Australia is concerned about peak oil, you are free
to build a gas pipeline from the NW shelf to Sydney. That will
keep all of you and your grandkids going for their lives. Who
knows what technology will be invented in the next 20 years.

Right now, we are flogging off alot of that gas to Asia, as
they are prepared to make a commitment. Chilling it down to
160 deg takes some doing. You are free to buy the stuff.
Or is gas just too inconvenient for you?

As Col Rouge put it so well, leave the market alone and it will fix itself. YES! What a great time to allow the industry to restructure when there are labour shortages. How absolutely expedient it would be, to retain the effective $15,000 tax revenue per Australian made car with 1.3 million population per manufacturing plant (assuming 20 per cent market penetration as at present).

Mr Rudd, dont meddle with my money. Your predecessors had the opportunity and it is probably too late to fix it now even if you think you could.

Leave the market alone and it will fix itself, Col ROuge?!? Right, just like the deregulated financial services industry is 'fixing itself' by flushing billions of superannuation $s down the stockmarket loo. Just like cigarette companies fixed the health problems of their products. Just like petrol companies quickly owned up to IQ impact of lead in petrol, instead of fighting it for twenty years.. what la-la land are you dialing in from? (my bet is the Institute for Public Affairs).

Liam “what la-la land are you dialing in from”

Liam, if you wish to challenge my view you are entitled to do so.

Merely using low sarcasm will not work on me.

I believe any healthy industry can stand on its own merits.

I believe a healthy business does not need government subsidy.

The merits of a society where everything is determined by government subsidy and government planning can be readily reviewed in the economic miracles of USSR, Poland, Rumania and every other centrally planned, government regulated economy.

I would note, that regulatory environment was so effective, people starved to death and the only reason the world did not know was because the media was as controlled by government.

Cherry pick shortcomings in a libertarian capitalist economy and for each, I will identify 10 deficiencies in the collectivist model.

“billions of superannuation $s down the stockmarket loo”

and on what price do you base that decline?

A week previous?

6 months previous?

Go back 2 years and you will find the super-funds are well ahead of leaving the cash in a savings account.

A hundred times better performing than any of Lenin or Stalin’s 5 year plans.

The cigarette companies have been revealed.

Leaded petrol, your poorly reasoned missive is possibly a negative side-effect of Leaded petrol.

If you don’t like the political economics I happen to subscribe to, you are free to start the queue of people waiting to get into North Korea.

Unfortunately, the queue trying to climb over the Berlin wall into East Germany never existed, they were all trying to escape the Eric Honeckers “government regulated workers utopia”

Before you rant on about capitalist environmental issues, go read one of the websites concerning the Aral Sea.

I recall USA had its Five Mile Island. USSR had Chernobyl.

Want to make a bet to which was the bigger disaster?

If you want to debate the real issues please return.

If you just want to rant about la-la-land and behave like an emotional cripple, phone the suicide help line.

If you want to have electric vehicles on our streets stop moaning about it and start a company to make one. Don't ask governments to get involved as the process would take too long and the result likely to be unsatisfactory, to say nothing of the cost.

Henry VIII has proposed hydrogen.
There are numerous article about the inefficiency of hydrogen.
Aside from producing it there are plenty of other difficulties.
Because it leaks out hydrogen cars cannot be parked in underground car parks.
In car storage is very bulky etc etc.

It is much more efficient to use the electricity to charge a battery
in an electric car. You can do that at home when the sun shines or the wind blows,
or use the more efficient electricity grid.

Re Public Transport, after the peak hits, there will be electric cars
or public transport. Live with it ! (or bikes or horses)
A speaker at the Public Transport conference in Perth stated that if
25% of drivers changed to public transport it would have to be rationed.
As an infrequent user of trains & buses I was shocked at the level
of crowding at peak hours compared to 15 years ago.

The writing is on the wall.

Liam/Mike. There IS a hydrogen mine. It is called the SEA. It surrounds Australia. It is an electrolyte. And no, I did not suggest using photovoltaic cells to electrolyse sea-water. I'd use nuclear power, and tidal power (Darwin has a 10m tide, twice a day) and solar reflector-generated steam in turbines and there are even SALT-WATER boilers; ships have been using steam turbines run from salt-water boilers for about 100years. The technology is not difficult. As for transport and storage-we'd find a way if we wanted to, just as Dr Diesel finally figured that diesel oil (basically unrefined kerosene) was a bit better than coal dust for his Diesel engines and just as Sikorski finally figured out how to make a working proposition of Leonardo da Vinci's helicopter.

I am fully aware of the concept of embedded energy, although thanks for the interesting web-site. Petroleum has an absolutely massive embedded energy component, from the petrol station to the sieismic survey, and if we had to start a world-wide petroleum-driven economy in a few years from zero to cope with our modern demand for energy I think we would all think it far too outrageously expensive.

Nor is there harm in challenging anyone to do the maths. I haven't done so and haven't the time. But someone may have done it, and someone on this thread may know of it. Indeed, going solely electric would quite well be cheaper, and if we can do so without mining hydrogen from the sea, fine. But I trust we agree we need to think beyond hydrocarbons, including coal, for energy? And you can make hydrogen from coal, as was done in gas-works years a 100 ago, but it comes with CO2. Sea-water doesn't.