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The Forum > Article Comments > Why the Ruddslide? > Comments

Why the Ruddslide? : Comments

By Leon Bertrand, published 26/11/2007

Labor's historic victory in many ways defies conventional wisdom, but many factors contributed to the Government's defeat.

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Yabby wrote, "... the figures, which speak for themselves, when it comes to judging Costello."

What figures? The current account deficit in the middle of a resources boom? Record foreign debt?

As I have argued at length in my article "Living standards and our material prosperity" at http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=6326 and at http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=6326&page=0 even the figures which make Costello look good are questionable. As examples:

* A person need only work one hour per week to be classified as "employed".

* Inflation figures do not take into account many new costs that have to be incurred as a consequence of the increase in life's complexity. They fail to take account of many things which used to be very cheap or free. Another factor is the way that steep rises in the prices of life's necessities -- utilities, food, gasoline, education, health and child care have been masked by falls in overseas travel, new cars, communications, electronic toys and household appliances.

* GDP figures count as positives all sorts of economic activities which don't add to our prosperity and omit much that does add to prosperity, but which does not involve monetary transactions.

* etc, etc.

I have gone over this again and again and again on other threads.

All these factors should at least cast some doubt on the figures which you claim "speak for themselves", yet you insist on restating the same old assertions in regard to Costello and the economy as if none of this had been written.

In any case, to the extent that the prosperity is real, even a fool should understand by now that it is built on a very shaky edifice. The world economy may be approaching meltdown thanks to the extreme free-market economic experiment in the US and we may soon face a number environmental and resource shortage problems as pointed out in a number of other posts which you have also ignored.

If Costello had done his job properly he would have prepared this country to confront these problems, but he has not because he seems only capable of thinking in one dimension.
Posted by daggett, Tuesday, 27 November 2007 10:40:59 AM
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Before I start analysing....does anyone know if the election process by Australian electoral commission was above reproach...meaning was any independent observers monitoring the process...and how did they monitor and what was their report...as reasoning common people we must ask this question...the whole voting/parliament 'turns' on this very thing...and we must be sure its protected and valid...

The fact that each voting paper has no individual signature or thumb print of the voter with long lasting ink as in some countries means that there is no way to determine if the vote being counted is the 'original' vote...yep...i mean if those ballet boxes were replaced nobody would know from looking at the voting slips...

why is this important...well, we have a particular vulnerability in our constitutional system...ours and England is the crown...crown hold the tender to all goverment bodies, and courts and pays the judges...so politicians is our only 'influence' in the administration of ourselfs...

and crown is in effect a corporation...therefore its purpose for existence is to make money...now if all crowns activities were above board and transparent i dont think this concern will arise...but it isnt...when was the last time you read in the media or anywhere else about the crown and its activites...so with each of these facts must go the question 'why like that'...and the picture does raise concerns...

For example if the crown wanted to...it could create a 'off-record open channel' for resources eg uranium so by passes all monitoring and taxing...well they control the whole government departments that are involved here...so money made is all theirs etc

If we dont look we will never see...I think we should ensure crucial areas to our constitution is monitored and kept above all reproach...a place to start is that by next election each voting slip mandates a personalizing mark like signature or thumb print...and if its 'refused' then we all have a problem dont we...

Sam
Posted by Sam said, Tuesday, 27 November 2007 10:41:31 AM
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I think the best that could be said of Costello's economic management is "competent, if unimaginative and somewhat lacking in long-term thinking". I suspect Swann will take some time to deserve any assessment of competency, but will hopefully display a little more imagination and long term planning.

It's also very easy to overstate how much influence Costello (or any treasurer) personally has had over the economy. Having formalised the Reserve Bank's independence in his first year as treasurer, his main job has been limited to keeping inflationary spending in check, partly through the GST, but primarily by maintaining a budget surplus. Even here, he had the resources and experience of the entire treasury department to rely on, most of which will presumably remain under Swan.

So if Swan proves to be inept at the job, it's unlikely that Australia's economy will suffer hugely. When a recession does strike (and it's bound to eventually), it will almost certainly be due to factors largely out of the government's control (though it must be said that I personally believe governments could do a lot more to protect us against the consequences of, say, oil shortages, foreign debt eventually biting us back, or the housing bubble collapsing. But the Coalition are probably even less likely to take on the necessary measures, especially how politically unpopular they would be in the short term).
Posted by wizofaus, Tuesday, 27 November 2007 11:27:24 AM
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Well said Daggett! Ross Gittins has also queried the lack of spending on infrastructure and failure to distribute GST revenues to the states and mining windfalls into national infrastructure, Alan Kohler is concerned about the sub prime mortgage crisis in the USA, the explosive Shanghai stock exchange and the collapse of building societies in the UK.

Sam said is querying the integrity of the electoral process. Rumours in Crikey last week intimated that individual members of the Exclusive Brethren were seen voting multiple times in north west Sydney.

Most Australians don't want American style health care or privatised utilities or Workchoices and some of us are frightened that the politicians will whistle the pack onto us next after the muslims. We are concerned about global warming and the attendant loss of rainfall in the south eastern australian foodbowl and the threat of peak oil. I don't see the point of chopping down 600 year old trees to make wood chip when we can make paper from hemp.
Posted by billie, Tuesday, 27 November 2007 11:47:54 AM
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CJ writes

'Enjoy the next 3 years (at least) in the wilderness, loser.'
You have an amazing definition of 'loser'. If my happiness in life was dependent upon an election win I would be as sour as most of the ABC commentators were over the last 4 elections. It was kind of nice to see red Kerry able to be happy for the first time in a long while
Posted by runner, Tuesday, 27 November 2007 12:28:16 PM
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Everyone should Read SMH journalist Alan Ramsey's articles.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/howards-cronies-should-join-him-in-the-wilderness/2007/11/25/1195975868447.html

HOWARD'S CRONIES SHOULD JOIN HIM IN THE WILDERNESS

"We have our country back. John Howard's Australia died with his government on Saturday night. ..."

"... this last election ... kill(ed) Howard off politically, along with the nastiest, meanest, most miserable, self-absorbed Commonwealth government to blight Australia in living memory ..."

"All that remains to sweep him out of sight is to get rid of the more obscene remnants of his governance in the months ahead."

...

"Now, while Costello sits on the backbench for three years ... what should happen is those other political misfits like Alexander Downer, Philip Ruddock and Tony Abbott should think about another life outside politics. None are part of the Liberals' future.

"For God's sake, go and make our Christmas complete."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/recycled-rejected-and-right-off-the-rails/2007/11/23/1195753306675.html

RECYCLED, REJECTED AND RIGHT OFF THE RAILS (written before the election)

"The (300 recycling bins in the basement corridor of the ministerial wing of Parliament) seemed a more apt commentary than all the desperate, last-minute Coalition windbaggery going on around the nation on what is about to descend on the Prime Minister after 33 years in public life and almost 12 years remaking Australia in his own miserable, disfigured image. They arrived two days ago and whoever they're for, 48 hours before a single vote is cast today, you felt somebody, somewhere, finally got it right."

...

"A clear majority remain heartily sick of the Prime Minister and his Coalition claque of tired mediocrities. The 'it's time' factor has been driving political sentiment all year, just as the dominant policy issue in the cities has been the Government's hated Work Choices legislation."
Posted by cacofonix, Tuesday, 27 November 2007 12:52:24 PM
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