Over thousands of years, human societies have had to face countless challenges, some natural, others human-caused. Putting aside war and disease as examples of things that communities or civilisations could not cope with, I'm not aware of a single natural commodity which has run short over that time such that the people affected by that shortage were severely affected by it. I view the lessons of history as being crucial in understanding how the world will cope with the inevitable shortage of liquid fossil fuel, but I challenge any of the people who have provided posts to this article to give me examples of similar situations that have affected large populations in one or more places around the world.

Why do I believe that changes will be slow and gradual, allowing us to come up with workable solutions to the many problems arising from a shortage of oil? Because as oil runs out, the price will go up, so that people will economise (Australians trade in their cars every 5 years and I expect them to buy much more fuel efficient vehicles, for example) or they will change their behaviour (catch public transport rather than drive their own cars) or they will find alternative sources of fuel (biofuel or oil from oil sands).

Climate change poses far more serious and difficult-to-manage problems than peak oil, thanks to a drought having an immediate impact which, if repeated for just 2 or 3 more years, can have consequences which are too short-term to be able to find long-term solutions to.

Pete Plantagenet (and KAEP, wherever you've got to)

Nuclear power cannot substitute cheaply for oil. Nor can it make electricity cheaper. In Australia, coal is the cheapest source of electricity, because the capital equipment already exists. The only good reason to abandon coal is to reduce greenhouse pollution.

There is no *energy* shortage. Petroleum is in decline; energy may never be as cheap again as it was in 1999; but at the prices we pay in 2007, alternatives are abundant.

Present-day profligacy with liquid fuels is *good* news in one sense, because it is easy (and will save more money than it costs) to reduce consumption.

Providing effective public transport to suburbs which currently rely on cars is an instant winner. Substituting rail for road haulage and commuting, and grid electricity for liquid fuels as the energy carrier for commuter transport and freight, poses an infrastructure challenge but offers huge efficiency gains.

Chemical processes have been known for a century which can convert almost any carbon-bearing material (such as firewood or coal) via 'syngas' (CO + H2) into clean-burning synthetic alkanes. This technology is viable with a liquid fuel price anywhere over $US40 per barrel, and is in everyday use in South Africa and Germany. Cheaper crop-based liquid biofuels are expanding rapidly.

Those of us who are married to our cars or have become addicted to aviation may suffer, but efficiencies are available here too. Providing we don't drop the ball in the short-term 'special period', we will afford electric cars and fuel cells and sufficient biofuels to fly efficient aircraft.

Many of the answers (and some elegant pipe-dreams) are here:

http://www.oilendgame.com

In the long run, we can adjust very easily to declining petroleum supplies. But we must not lose sight of the climate problem as we scramble for the easy solutions to peak oil.

Great article Michael, and soooooo true - and soooooo ironic in the light of David Fagan's arrogant responses to me yesterday (5th Nov 2007):-

http://www.kimspages.org/Novembe52007fagan.htm

As people may or may not know, David Fagan is the editor of Queensland's "Courier Mail" (a Murdoch publication). Ironically, as I also informed David Fagan this morning, "The Press & Journal" (Scotland's oldest daily newspaper), carried an article (5th Nov 2007), based on the info I sent David - info he has (without explanation), openly labelled "Un-newsworthy."

G'day Bernie,
Have you read Jared Diamond's "Collapse"? Personally I think Chapter 13 on Australia should be read by everyone.
I think the average age of the Australian vehicle fleet is somewhere between 12 and 15yrs - can anyone help with this?
There are probably significant numbers of people who have recently bought 4WD's and large 6cyl vehicles as a result of the current affluence and easy credit.As oil prices rise and petroleum imports contract trade in values of these vehicles are likely to take a hammering.I am not so confident that with increasing utility costs,rising interest rates,expensive liquid fuels,skyrocketing rentals,falling stock markets etc that folks will find it so easy to update vehicles.
Try suggesting to people(particularly young males) that they might consider not buying a new 4WD/people mover and keep their current car until plug-in/hybrids are available and see the looks you will get.
Completely agree that climate change is the no.1 worry but the real tragedy is that we will be hit with climate change/peak oil in the same timeframe.Cheap,feely available liquid fuels would have made accomplishing the infrastructure changes needed to combat global warming much easier.
Oil sands are an environmental disaster and contribute greatly to global warming.There is increasing evidence that biofuels are not environmentally friendly. Have you looked at the scalability problems with these fuels?
The newspapers yesterday had an article about the closure of two biodiesel plants and the cancelled development of another.The combined annual output of the 2 plants was 140 million litres. Joe public would be mightily impressed with this. I did the maths and found that being generous with the calcs this annual output could meet Australia's liquid fuel requiremnts for 8hrs.
Yes people will change their behaviour but only when alternative solutions are available and affordable.Have you read the Hirsch Report - the authors don't think the transformation will be quick or easy.Yes we must economise,localise and grow some of our own food but it's not going to be a smooth ride.

Michael Dwyer;
No sorry there are no links of which I am aware to systems
for rationing fuel. The only thing I have read is the ASPO Transition
Protocol, which could be used to implement an Australian rationing
system. You will never hear politicians talk about it until there are
three KM petrol queues.

Bernie Masters said;
but I challenge any of the people who have provided posts to this
article to give me examples of similar situations that have affected
large populations in one or more places around the world.

Well thats the point Bernie, there never has been a similar situation.
We have built a 6 Billion plus population on the cheap energy of oil.
Now it is going away, what happens to that population ?
No one has yet come up with an alternative that is anywhere near as
capable as oil.

A telling article I read was about how long it takes a farmer with a
cultivator & tractor to work over a 100 hectare field and how long
it takes with a horse and smaller cultivator.
Similar comparisons were made for harvesting and bailing.
People have done some remarkable work on this problem and the result
is that we will need about 100 to 500 times the number of farmers we
now have.
It was an interesting article it went into how in the 19th century
farmers used two steam tractors and wire cables to pull ploughs back
and forth accross fields. There were contracting teams that went from
village to village doing this work.
In case you are not aware, the steam tractor looks like the steam
roller that used to be used in roadwork, but instead of a roller
in the front it had two iron wheels and power take offs.

Bernie compares peak oil "alarmism" to the Y2K thing. Let's get something straight.

Y2k did not happen — because governments and big business:-

* listened to the warnings...
* about a "VIRTUAL PROBLEM" WITH COMPUTER CODE...
* that was easily fixed with a little money...
* just in time.

By the time Y2K ticked over the "geeks" were quite content with the situation. (My dad worked for IBM). Of course the "nutters" stored up tinned food and ammo for the Y2K apocalypse that never came.

Peak oil is exactly the opposite.

* We have not listened to warnings...
* about an energy crisis in the REAL WORLD OF PHYSICS and CHEMISTRY (not some silly computer code)
* requiring a vast "war-time" EMERGENCY ECONOMY BECAUSE IT'S INCREDIBLY EXPENSIVE to prepare for the post oil era...
* and we have already missed the deadline which was 10 to 20 years ago! (See the DOE sponsored Hirsch report)
* This time the geology "geeks" are anything but content!

Now Robert Hirsch is a smart cookie, with a fusion prototype reactor named after him. His report to the US DOE reads...

"Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization. It fuels the vast majority of the world’s mechanized transportation equipment – Automobiles, trucks, airplanes, trains, ships, farm equipment, the military, etc. Oil is also the primary feedstock for many of the chemicals that are essential to modern life. This study deals with the upcoming physical shortage of world conventional oil -- an event that has the potential to inflict disruptions and hardships on the economies of every country.
From the Introduction, page 8."

See his current thinking...

http://globalpublicmedia.com/interviews/615