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The Forum > Article Comments > Sleepwalking into danger > Comments

Sleepwalking into danger : Comments

By Graham Harris, published 18/10/2007

It is time to admit how little we know and face up to planetary degradation instead of muddling through.

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Quite a few "second rate minds" are chewing the fat in Canberra at the moment.
From yesterday's sessions of the Coral Reef Futures Forum, lots of concern was reported, including from the Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (Townsville).
But, they all could be wrong - who can say with certainty it has been a good day until the day is completely over?
Posted by colinsett, Friday, 19 October 2007 9:19:05 AM
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Perseus,

Paul Ehrlich was wrong about famines in the 1970s because he could not anticipate the success of the Green Revolution. The agronomist William Paddock was also predicting famines in the 1970s, so it is hard to see how an entomologist like Ehrlich could have done better. People make predictions on the best evidence available at the time.

You see the future as rosy, so lets just look at one area - grain production. My figures are from the Earth Policy Institute, but Julian Cribb was saying much the same in an article in last Wednesday's Australian.

http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Grain/2006.htm

World grain production per person peaked in 1984 (much as oil discoveries peaked in 1965). Demand for grain has exceeded supply for 6 of the past 7 years, and grain stocks are lower (in terms of days of supply) than at any time in the past 34 years.

About 60% of the grain harvest is consumed directly by humans, 36% is used as animal feed and 3% is used as fuel. The fuel fraction is expanding at 20% a year, and demand for meat is also up because of economic growth in places like China. Current grain production in many places is heavily dependent on oil and gas, which are also running out. There is "record growth in demand for grain at a time when the backlog of technology to raise grain yields is shrinking..."
Aquifers under major grain growing regions are being pumped dry, and water shortages are already causing yields to fall in China and other places. Climate change is likely to be another problem.

Ehrlich may have just gotten the timing wrong.
Posted by Divergence, Friday, 19 October 2007 10:18:52 AM
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