The revolutionary aspect of this report is that this is the first time one of the major international energy agencies has admitted that oil supply will become tight in the near future. To date they have all said the usual nonsense about that there is abundant oil and you don't have to worry, leave to us.

This report combined with more reports and articles in the media suggest that peak oil or peak plateau is getting traction. However, as one of the earlier contributors said, why aren't the politicians taking about it. A simple answer from the US Senator, Bartlett one of the few politicians to speak up on the issue, is that no political party would get elected if they stated that the standard of living is going to drop and that the price of fuel is going to skyrocket due to peak oil.

........."is that no political party would get elected if they stated that the standard of living is going to drop and that the price of fuel is going to skyrocket due to peak oil."

C3837. That's probably a very good reason why we're not hearing more about tightening oil supplies from our political leaders and possibly why we haven't hear a peep on "peak oil" from any of the Labor hopefuls. Could also be why both major parties are keen to do nuclear business. Perhaps they see nuclear as being the only viable means to shore up energy production when oil becomes prohibitively expensive.

Oh, thanks to those who attempted to answer my shipping question. Perhaps my question should have been.... "what do large cargo ships use for fuel?"
I was led to believe that they ran on pre distillery fuels such as unrefined oil, hence I couldn't understand why they would want to switch to diesel. As to the rest of the article, I have a fairly good grasp of the theory of peak oil and it's implications on the future of mankind. I also believe this is one of the most important issues we will have to face. One thing private transport owners are going to have to come to terms with is the loss of personal freedom we've enjoyed for over 100 years as one by one, people decide it's simply too expensive to drive any more.

Aime:

Check the wikipedia article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_oil

Maritime Gasoil is primarily a distillate of fuel oil (fuel oil number 2).

Can anyone enlighten me regarding how this will affect the airline industry over the next decade or two?

Jonah;
I have read few articles about the effect on airlines.
The general opinion is the airlines will be the canary in the mine.

I note that QANTAS has increased its fuel surcharge to $187 for
London each way, just yesterday. We will see this each time there is a
significant jump in oil prices. The airlines hedge their fuel prices by
forward buying. I read somewhere just recently that QANTAS has hedged
its fuel for sometime ahead, but Virgin Blue got caught out and had to
pay a much higher price.

When we start seeing a considerable number of airlines in trouble with
falling traffic and rising fare prices we will know peak oil is here.
The rising prices will hit the tourist trade at the same time.

I thought on the private buy out of Qantas, we should have sold it
while the going was good. Would you want to be buying 20 odd Airbus
380s and 84 Boing Dreamliners at this stage of the game ?

Even if they are doing ot through a leasing company, they will probably
still have some financial commitment.
Which reminds me QANTAS is setting up a aircraft leasing company.
That would be one way to insulate the liability from QANTAS itself,
just let the leasing company go broke.

BTW I sold my Qantas shares a couple of months back.

What I have not seen any real advise about is what investments
will be the best as peak oil arrives ?

Remember that "peak oil" does not mean all the oil suddenly disappears - it just becomes more scarce. So if the peak is 2010, then in 2040 we have as much oil being produced as we had in 1980.

BUT - demand for oil in 2040 will be much greater than it was in 1980. What happens when demand is much higher than supply? Why, prices go up and up...

So for the aviation industry, I think what we'll see happen is that it'll become more and more expensive. In 20 or 30 years we'll find that the only people travelling on planes at all are the same as those who travel first or business class today.