Xoddam,

there is no need to worry about coal running out in the next twenty, thirty of hundred years. It is a widespread resource, with most coutries in the world having resources of coal.

When talking about minerals, people refer to resources and reserves. Reserves (which are at a much higher level of certainty) are based on minerals that have been well explored, have mine plans run over them and are economic at present. All that costs a lot of money to do, so companies and governments do not want to spend too much money proving up reserves too far into the future. (the time value of money means that the future revenues from the project would be discounted too heavily, and not meet the costs of explorations and feasibility studies).

So we always only have twenty to forty years of reserves of most minerals. Just enough to get to an acceptable level of confidence that the coal (or iron ore or oil) is there in sufficient quantity and quality. We would loose money by having more.

Resources do not have mine plans run over them, but are graded according to the level of certainty (measured, indicated and inferred - decreasing certainty), and are classified by geologists who must only include resources that are reasonably confident of being economic. Resources are always bigger than reserves, even for the same deposit.

For more info on this, google the Australasian Institue of Mining & Metallugy (AusImm) and JORC code. This is a widely accepted code for mining companies reporting on stock exchanges (necessary in Aus).

Forecast coal usage will increase (the Stern report has increases of at least 30% over current levels over the next 30 years) in the near future as more countries take advantage of the favourable energy security aspects of coal to meet increasing demand for energy. If reducing carbon emissions is desirable, then the best way of doing this when coal use is increasing strongly will be through technology to produce "clean coal". Renewables will also be important for societies who can afford them and want them.

Cheers

Phew!

Miner, you're right. I misread it at first -- it says *world* coal production will *peak* within 20 years, not that the Chinese will run out by then.

Chinese production will peak *very* soon; they have 50 years (not 20) of *reserves* at present production rates, and "peak" means production will slow down after that, so they'll have time to scale down consumption. Probably half those Chinese-made steam turbines are disposable in any case :-)

The 20-year threshold was for world *peak* coal production. World peak oil is more-or-less now, but we likewise still have a few decades of reserves (+ more of resources) left.

All we have to deal with are soaring prices and CO2 emissions -- and improved energy efficiency will compensate equally well for both.

BTW I did know the difference between resources and reserves, what alarmed me was that the study demonstrates that both reserve figures and resource estimates have been shrinking, not growing, with improved assessments. Australia and India are the two exceptions to the rule: other major producers have revised both numbers *downwards*, by 99% in one case.

Here's the pdf of the detailed study, if you're interested:

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf

I only spent about six hours being worried :-)

P.S. "Clean coal" can't reduce CO2 production by much at all; adding the cost of geosequestration would push the price of most coal-fired electricity up beyond even today's wind & geothermal power, let alone emerging technologies, nuclear power and large-scale solar thermal generators. The only viable "clean coal" technique I'm aware of is using flue gas to fertilise oil-bearing algae for biodiesel production, getting a second energy bite out of the same carbon apple. We'll need a lot of that to cope with Peak Oil :-)

Miner, yes it is not conceivable that mineral (and coal) resources will run out in the near future.
However, the costs will put a damper on things.
At the present, the mining industry estimates that ten per cent of world energy is expended on crushing rocks - whether it is for gold, cement, bricks. The costs for supplying that energy are sure to increase.
Then there is the certainty that recovery of new resources will be from more difficult reserves: mining deeper than at present, and probably from lower grades.
The factor of (more costly to mine reserves) X (more costly energy) does not make for an increasingly healthy economy or society.
If we are not worried by present rates of growth we do not have our heads in the real world.

Had a quick look at the report, will have a closer look this week. A couple of points,

* the team that developed the Coal Resources report appear to be slightly weighted towards the non-coal side of things, who may gain a benefit from a moving away from coal. Would have been good to include a few experts in coal resource and reserves generation to add weight to the findings.

* some numbers for the Australian data, which I can comment on appear a bit screwy, (they may be typos) eg 38.6Mt of hard coal reserves in 2005 (BHP alone produced 37.3Mt in 2005 financial year sourced form BHP production report)

* the drop in production appears to be approx 2030. This is getting towards the time when the further proving up of resources to reserves is not beneficial. Also the 90 year forecast of reserves assumes that no further work is done in proving up reserves, or advances in technology. I would not like to put any money on forecasting what will occur over that sort of timeframe.

From the supply side of things, mineral prices have been in long term downward trends, even though the easier deposits have been mined out. Costs have followed (or maybe led) prices down.

Mines have been using technology (eg larger equipment) to reduce costs and maintain profits. I saw (many years ago) a presentation where one mining company (Phelpe Dodge I think) charted the real price and costs, for copper over 200 years. Also shown were the technology that allowed the costs of production to drop to maintain profits. I'll try to find it.

Some data at the following links.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/09/are_real_commod.html

When future production of coal does drop off, the demand for energy should see real prices rise (assuming there is no alternative energy source) & currently marginal coal deposits will be economic. Alternatives that are also currently not economic will also be economically viable to develop.

I believe that long before we run out of coal we will have moved on to the next major baseload source of energy.

... indeed. The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stone.