The Forum > Article Comments > Climate recantation: IPCC models don't predict and are unscientific > Comments
Climate recantation: IPCC models don't predict and are unscientific : Comments
By Bob Carter, published 29/6/2007There is no predictive value in the current climate change models and therefore the alarmist statements about human-caused global warming are unjustified.
- Pages:
-
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- Page 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
-
- All
I would be interested in how the good professor responds to the following facts:
Global warming is an observed fact of the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans. In the 20th century the near-surface atmospheric temperature rose 0.6 °Celsius and particularly sharply in the last fifty years. This variation is more significant than the "medieval warm period" of the 11 century, and is about the same as the "little ice age" of 16th to mid-19th centuries.
The overwhelming scientific opinion is, as expressed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the U.S. National Research Council, the American Metereological Society, and, as reported in Science in 2004, 100% of revelant articles from referreed scientific journals from 1999 to 2003, is that most of recent warming is due to human activity, especially the increased release of "greenhouse gases" such as carbon dioxide, from the burning of fossil fuels, land clearing and agriculture. Greenhose gas emissions account for a +0.7 °C change to temperatures over the last 100 years, solar and ozone changes to +0.2 °C and +0.1 °C respectively, sulphates to -0.25 °C and volcanic activity -0.15 °C.
From 3,000 years ago to the start of the 19th century sea level was almost constant, rising at 0.1 to 0.2 mm per annum; since 1900 the level has risen at 1 to 3 mm per annum; since 1992 satellite altimetry indicates a rate of about 3 mm per annum]. Glacial retreat is almost universal (mainly sections of Scandavia excluded) with cumulative mean thickness declining by some 14 meters since the mid-1950s, with the most extreme instances in New Zealand.
Just a seasonal variation I suppose?