I always avoid using the word "conspiracy", precisely because it has become a word so overloaded with negative baggage. I'm also interested in the impaired psychology of people at the other end of the bell-shaped event explanation probability curve - those people whom the author calls "coincidence theorists". I don't much like that expression either, because it is'nt totally illuminating of the mindset. I prefer to think of those people who always hold to a view, when it is put to them that governments have done disturbing things in particular situations , that "if I have to choose between a conspiracy or a stuff-up, I will always opt for a stuff-up", as people wedded psychologically to a presumption of regularity. The phrase is Jack Waterford's - see in my book A Certain Maritime Incident.

Intelligent people are comfortable in the middle of the bell-shaped probability curve - not looking for conspiracies, but not having a blind faith in the decency of governments and their dependent bureaucracies either. And, being ready to sceptically test government claims against the available public evidence on particular unexplained events, using a disciplined approach to probability, and using inductive reasoning when necessary. That does not make a conspiracy theorist. It makes a person who has not let their mind and informed conscience be lulled into blind faith and complacency. The truth usually lies somewhere around the middle of the bell-shaped curve.

Fully-fledged conspiracies are rare: but so are highly improbable chains of unfortunate extenuating coincidences. "If it looks like a duck and walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck" is not a conspiracy theory. It is a reasonable hypothesis until proof comes along.

TK1, there is no reason why truth should lie near the centre of the spectrum of public opinion--and good reason why it should not. Simple consistency forces one away from the centre.

Would you find a centre between Einstein and Newton?
Would you hold that in Nazi Germany, the truth about Jews lay in the middle of the spectrum (confine them to ghettos)?

Belief that the truth lies in the middle leaves to people shifting their views in response to those who take absurd views in the effort to shift what is perceived as the centre. Look at the efforts to have people accept that a left liberal view is a left wing view instead of a middle of the road one. I'm sure there are some conspiracies involved here.

Great article.

If someone wants to be rational about it, then perhaps they could use the laws of probability when determining what is likely to be true, or what is irrational, or what is a conspiracy, or what is a political version of events only.

For example:- How probable would it be that someone could fire 3 shoots in 5.6 seconds with a bolt action rifle, but each shot accurately hit a small moving target 80 metres away when the telescopic sight on the rifle was later found to be defective.

I think it could be possible, but highly improbable, but it was accepted as being true by the Warren report.

Wow, it didn’t take long before someone tried to derail this thread into a discussion of their pet “C” theory.

In any case, I think that most of these theories rely on a flawed concept of human behavior. There are no true conspiracies, because people are just incapable of keeping secrets for long. There are no secrete cabals, because human behavior would destroy them in internecine conflicts.

The attempt to create the “coincidence theory” label is nothing more than an attempt to nullify just criticisms of the conspiracy theory culture.

“Highly improbable chains of unfortunate extenuating coincidences” are the causes of most major disasters throughout history.

Mr Anon E Mouse

It would be interesting if you could nominate a source of information that everyone could rely upon as being accurate and unquestionable (EG a newspaper, a magazine, a web-site etc).

In the case of coincidence and disasters, I think it is verifiable that many industrial accidents can be traced back to a lack of correct procedure being applied at some stage.

In the case of larger scale disasters, then I think most damage is done when there is a war, but I think most wars are purposely designed and don’t occur accidentally or as a matter of coincidence.

Either one or both sides have planned the war long before it officially begins. All that is needed is something or someone to kick start the war, and it is not a matter of waiting for a coincidence.

"A coincidence theorist is just as irrational as a conspiracy theorist.."

Its always seemed to me that 'conjecture' is a fairly natrural response to 'secrecy'. Politicians forget, people are just like them - because they too are people. Why do politicians/governments have intelligence agencies - the purpose of which is grounded in fear and suspicion?

The world will only gain peace when the concerted aim is equality and not supremacy. The former requires dialogue and the latter relies on force.

When David Coady says, "The official version of events (which in this case I accept) is that the conspirators were members of al-Qaida" he aknowledges that he is merely favouring one of the possible conspiracy theories about 9/11. Because he raised and expressed an opinion about this specific theory, I don't think I can be accused of derailing the discussion by saying the official account of 9/11 is better characterized as a coincidence theory, as this analysis establishes: http://www.utah911truth.com/Coincidence_theory_files/frame.htm

In this context, I agree wholeheartedly with the author's comment,
"The coincidence theorist may harm us all by making it easier for conspirators to get away with it."

Conspiracy Theory – and the Corporate Culture?

1. It may be asked that because the Howard government itself prides itself on being part of the corporate culture, could there be illegal connections between such government and a corporatised media?

2. The above query could be backed up by reports that while the Public Service similar to Yes Minister , formerly could act as watchkeepers on governments, the new corporate culture now has shown the Ministers how to keep the public service under wraps.

3. The case sited and related to the above, concerns myself as a retired farmer and breeder, and still active as a director, who on watching George Negus on SBS Dateline, was shocked by a documentary showing a blatant breaking of our Bio-Security import laws, allowing a foot and mouth suspected shipment of Brazilian carcase meat to be landed in Sydney, Australia. The meat, fortunately was discovered by our very competent Bio-Security officials and subsequently destroyed.

4. Wondering why the event was not made public after the very colourful explanatory Negus programme, I decided to ring SBS to find why such a significant news event was delayed, and was again shocked when I was told that Negus should have never put it on the air, and it was best us farmers forget all about it.

5.A month later a Queensland free-lance news reporter rang me and said that the same thing had happened there, the news had to be kept quiet, because the mistake in shipment had been caused by something to do with the new Bi-Lateral Trade Agreement with America weakening our Bio-Security down to the same position as the US.

6. My last attempt was a thread over our Online, but on finding no interest here started to feel I had committed some sort of crime by complaining. And even wondered whether my complaints had caused some sort of non-illegal conspiracy

G'day,
I'm pretty sure that conspiracy theories are born out of mistrust of the source, and that mistrust is the result of previous experience where the source has either lied or distorted the truth in one way or other. And in the USA where we get more information than any other country here in OZ, we can cite the many seemingly inexplicable incidents that have encouraged many conspiracy theories. It was revealed today on the news that latest released classified documents showed that the CIA recruited the american mafia to assasinate President Fidel Castro of Cuba. No wonder we do not trust official sources when the evidence is sketchy or withheld by them. Hilton Bombing... All encourage conspiracy theorists.
They sort out the best answer in my opinion when convincing evidence is lacking.

Anony Mouse.

Your theory is easily demolished by two words.

Manhattan Project - Go read, and learn