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The Forum > Article Comments > Severe climate change unlikely before we run out of fossil fuel > Comments

Severe climate change unlikely before we run out of fossil fuel : Comments

By Kjell Aleklett, published 5/6/2007

The climate threat may be exaggerated because there is insufficient oil, natural gas and coal to cause it.

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michael_in_adelaide wrote:
"The value of using energy as a correlate for carbon dioxide production is that it is the number of C-C and C-H bonds in a hydrocarbon that determine its possible energy output and this is directly related to the mass of CO2 that can be produced."

Thanks Michael - although I am waiting clarification on one point from a colleague, I believe you are right. I was wrong to say that the total energy content of coal does not essentially correlate with its carbon content.

What is true, however, is that on a lifecycle analysis the less energy-dense coal will be more carbon intensive, due to the greater mass of coal that has to be processed to produce a given amount of energy, and the use of fossil fuels to provide the energy for this processing. This is the basis for the EROEI argument I outlined.

This argument still stands, but as you suggest, it does not undermine Aleklett's question regarding the total fossil fuel energy (and thus carbon) accessible to us. However, since alternatives like methane hydrates are already being tested it seems clear that we have more than sufficient ingenuity to destroy our global climate. Wisdom is still required, a lack of intelligence (or resources) will not save us.
Posted by Shaunus4, Saturday, 23 June 2007 4:11:42 AM
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Thanks for those comments Shaunus4,

I imagine you have already seen David Rutledge’s presentation on coal reserves:

http://rutledge.caltech.edu/

This is a very enlightening presentation that states essentially the same thing as the Aleklett article. If I remember correctly, he showed that, by his analysis, exploitable coal reserves probably amount to half of what is shown in the BP Statistical Review and only 1/10th that assumed in the IPCC scenarios!

I don’t agree with you about the existence of additional fossil fuel reserves that are exploitable in order to drive coal production even when the net energy value drops below zero. Methane Hydrates are probably very difficult to exploit at an energy profit – so I believe that my earlier comment about coal being the “final” fossil fuel will be correct.

This is not to deny that climate change is already occurring and it may already prove to be fatal to the city of Adelaide where I live (if we don’t see sufficient rain to replenish our water supply). However, if we cook the world I doubt it will be due to CO2 release according to the IPCC scenarios. Other non-CO2 factors may be involved.
Posted by michael_in_adelaide, Saturday, 23 June 2007 2:17:08 PM
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