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The Forum > Article Comments > Winning five elections may be an ask too far > Comments

Winning five elections may be an ask too far : Comments

By Peter Tucker, published 16/2/2007

Boring has worked for John Howard up to now and it is working just fine for Keving Rudd too.

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Interesting.
No moral positions of value? No mud from past efforts? No worries about what our mad mullahs may do? No thought of Iran ? No thought of the media behaviour over Iraq about to be repeated over Iran?
Home fire stuff the guts of politics? And of course a satisfactory bank balance with house to boot!
Posted by untutored mind, Friday, 16 February 2007 8:44:31 AM
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Rudd isn't quite as boring as Howard, and seems to have put a spark back into domestic politics. Crean, Beazley were as boring as Howard, which is why the electorate stuck with the DEVIL they knew. Rudd seems to have some long needed fresh ideas on Education, Climate Change etc, so it will be an interesting year. Don't write Howard off however, he may still be able to "manufacture" another "children overboard" to keep the politics of fear and division running. It will be an interesting year.
Posted by SHONGA, Friday, 16 February 2007 10:25:33 AM
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Three months before the last election I knew my ALP was gone.
On election day on duty at my red kneck polling booth at 10 past 8 am I walked up to the boot wearing National party booth captian and told her congrates on your landslide vicory.
This year same booth same people my smile will tell the storey Mrs Howards hen pecked Johny will have plenty of time to learn from her how to plant trees.
I may take a gift one along to the lady in boots say a lemon tree?
Posted by Belly, Sunday, 18 February 2007 8:11:20 AM
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The considerations to which the authors refers have a logical basis about them. Add to those argments,
1) Ray Martin's comments (this morning) about the loss of a core Australian value "a fair go" and
2) the associated degree of intolerance which this government has bred through its divisive comments, and
3) more rcently taking "multiculturalism" out of the dept of immigration's name and inserting the label "citizenship" --about which this government understands very little... because if they did, then they would understand the irony in removing "multiculturalism", and the message that is sent by that change.

There is therefore little wonder as to why, as a lifetime Liberal voter, I will be voting for the ALP next election. Bring back the real liberals such as Fraser etc. With the looming prospect of Costello as PM, I just wouldnt risk it. Maybe, I'll change my mind if they place the socially prgressive Malcolm Turnbull at the helm. However with:
1) socially divisive policies and comments which reflect little understanding of what makes a functional community/society by those such as Costello and Robb,
2) years of silly denial about climate change etc.
3) ill-conceived shortsighted IR policies

I think I'll give the Coalition a BIG miss this election.
Posted by james50, Sunday, 18 February 2007 9:31:10 AM
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James 50 your point is valid and in truth important, Liberal politics has got lost in the result of the last 2 elections.
States too need a rebirth of true Liberalism and it is in my view the death of true Liberal party's that keep my mob in control of every state.
This will be the case still after the NSW election and it must be noted some press are biased to the extreme in favor of a Liberal party no longer in touch with its own base.
Watch now as John Howard uninterested in fairness brings David Hicks home so he can say he hears the people.
I doubt he cares about anything other than victory.
Posted by Belly, Sunday, 18 February 2007 4:13:19 PM
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As long as the iraq war continues the liberals probably win again, though without public support, which an amazing statement but when one looks at all relevant material facts, it leads to this conclusion. The same applies to bush- america and blair- england.

If liberals et al lost then having led us to war there, and now with no wmd so on improper basis, the public by voting them out are now saying the government and parliament did not act on our behalf. Hmmm... a constitutional problem arises, simply that parliament and government has to reflect peoples mandate or it has to make sure it has majority of people support for any laws and acts...if not then the parliament and government is acting on its own initiative which is then it has its own mind and intentions and which separate to us the common peoples common mind and intentions...so it is no longer a representative of the common people defeating the constitution and 'the intrinsically implied' when voting in public elect... yeah I've got a grimace on my face too...

So what should follow is at what point did the parliament-government and people part ways? and since then the people whom acted on our behalf become personally accountable...see where this is heading...

This issue arose in high court with the industrial relations law controversy, where the federal government was representing that the new bill is support by us nationally, where every state was represented in the case and against implying at the state level we opposed it...and it is the same population they were both referring too... so somebody is wrong and only way out is a national referendum to determine the fact...which bring the question how much control do we the public have in election process to ensure it is free and fair without improper interference, as we currently take this as given but issues like csa and family court current law and practice suggests otherwise in favouring select group (though rapidly being brought back into balance due to mostly mens action), before answering the industrial relations question...
Sam
Posted by Sam said, Sunday, 18 February 2007 4:22:12 PM
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John Howard has had a dream run.... Here's why!

Look who Labor put up against him

1. Keating ... say no more
2. Beazley .... A drover's dog had more chance he lost the GST election
3. Latham..... Desperation gone mad

Are Labor strategists up to the task?

Howard has Australia in a war that won't be won... Now he has announced that if we strategically withdraw it is a defeat. I bet the soldiers doing their duty love that line. How can a strategic withdrawal be a defeat Johnnie?

The Govt lied about the GST not being on Education ... it's not on school fees but it's on everything that accompanies eductation. Another whack in the guts for families.

Doesn't the GST raises about $7 billion dollars mostly from battler families as businesses can claim it back?

The Govt gave $10 tax cuts to lowincomeearners and over $100 tax cuts to the wealthy. Howard's economics means we can't afford to give tax cuts to the most needy in our society, the low income earners and young people battling to raise a family.

Howard has increased the debt of every person that can't afford to pay their HECS up front. Just what we need young people starting their lives with huge debts.

Australia interest rates are highby world standards again disadvantaging families... The USA and Japan have been down to nearly zero.

Although Australia has been in drought for the majority of Howard's rule he has only just started doing something about it.

Howard presided over the AWB scandal and did the SGT Shultz "I know nothing" routine.

Howard (a lawyer) has allowed a misguided Aussie citizen to rot in camp x-ray without charges for over 5 years. Which part of a fair trial and natural justice doesn't this lawyer understand?

This guy has allowed children to be psychologically damaged in refugee camps ... and allowed at least one Australian citizen to be detained and another one deported.

Mr Rudd clean out your strategists and get some that can help you win. And please put justice back into our society.
Posted by Opinionated2, Sunday, 18 February 2007 6:32:15 PM
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Don't forget.

Beasley actually won an election in terms of votes but the system didn't allow him a victory.

Beasley would have probably won again if it hadn't been for 9/11.

Latham had too many skeletons in his cupboard. I doubt that Rudd has any of significance.

Howard's chickens (Iraq, Hicks, work laws, education, foreign debt) are finally coming home to roost.
Posted by logic, Sunday, 18 February 2007 9:32:11 PM
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Logic ,the only thing that went wrong in Iraq is that the locals were too crippled by their religion to progress to democracy.Peace must come to Iraq or there will be another world war over energy.

You and others will not realise how good a leader John Howard is,until we have a few terms of Labor economic vandalism.Oh how the memories are so short. You with your leftist comfort rethoric,have never had it so good.
Posted by Arjay, Sunday, 18 February 2007 10:48:07 PM
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Arjay

I am no leftist, in fact I run my own business. I supply manufacturing industry.

Much of what went bad in Iraq was due to entering a battle without doing adequate home work beforehand.

Howard has left us with a diminished education system, reduced support for manufacturing industry and allowed us to develop a massive foreign debt. We now have a skill shortage. Keating for all his faults at least got a level of manufacturing industry going. He also realised the importance of nearby countries to our life and economy. Neither our prime minister or our foreign minister can speak a language other than English, they are so insular.

So much for a globalised world! Howard is good with words but poor on actions. And people are starting to realise that.
Posted by logic, Monday, 19 February 2007 6:43:58 PM
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Logic the foreign debt was there well before Keating.Unless we develop a set of international rules for business to operate under,countries like China and India will continue to take our jobs unless we are willing to live like them.

John Howard cannot set the agenda.To put tarrifs on all our industries will see our living standards fall.Globalisation is a double edged sword and we in the land of OZ will have to work smarter and harder to survive.I have a lot of criticism for this govt in respect for R&D and supporting our home grown industries,but Labor are a bunch of no talent wonders dominated by union power that represents very few Australians these days.We are between a rock and a hard place.Thank God for the boom in China and India.
Posted by Arjay, Monday, 19 February 2007 9:27:03 PM
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More Newspolls and more AC Nielsen, Morgan/Crikey polls, etc etc. How about a new take on them?

The polls show Kevin Rudd enjoying a honeymoon with the electorate, but not his party! How could this be? I tend to use Newspoll as they are regular and the methodology less prone to wild gyrations. The 68% approval for Rudd is slightly higher than the Latham top of 66% and he is preferred over Howard as PM. But the ALP party vote actually fell (1%) and the ALP two party preferred (TPP) also fell (2%). The ALP vote is built on cannibalising the Green vote, the total ALP and Green vote is typically 46%, it has hit 52% and 51% in February. The TPP vote fall is encouraging for the Coalition which is making up ground and bounced back from the ALP’s beginning of the school year education spike; and the Coalitions line that Rudd and the ALP are trying to be all things to all people eg Iraq ‘withdrawal lite’, US alliance, climate change etc.

The media gave Howard a hard time on the Obama comments. But the media appears to have forgotten that Bush and Democrat Kerry both attacked Latham over his Iraq 2004 withdrawal policy. Howard may yet astonish the media and the public by turning the ALP Iraq policy into a negative, of opportunism, and inconsistency (in light of the other Australian deployments in Afghanistan, and a withdrawal that leaves two thirds of our commitment still in Iraq). Rudd may be at his peak, he is clever but if he has peaked early, he needs to keep up momentum for the remainder of the year and possibly a long campaign too. It is hard work.

Howard has been in similar situations before. In April 1998 he trailed Beazley 31/39 as preferred PM and was down 35/52 on satisfaction-dissatisfaction. He was also down in May 2001 35/39 with Beazley, and 28/64 on satisfaction-dissatisfaction. He won both elections held within months of both.
Posted by Canberra Sceptic, Thursday, 22 February 2007 5:05:12 PM
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Canberra Sceptic

In April 1998 the ALP with Beasley had almost a two percent lead on the co-coalition and in a properly working democratic system should have easily won, having the support of the people.

In May 2001 Howard won with racist remarks about Muslims and the luck (for him) of the American disaster and the Afghan war. The next election Latham had serious skeletons in the cupboard, when these were exposed he lost his support.

A 1% or 2% change in one poll in not significant they are subject to error. A continued lead in many polls is indicative as is a 5% lead. ALP was consistantly ahead in polls before Rudd was leader.

Rudd is extremely capable having had a successful career first in the diplomatic service, then ran a consultancy. He is probably the most professional man we have had as an aspiring PM. He is not just a career politician as the others all are.

Yes Howard is a shrewd poli, but Rudd is also capable, he may well be Howard's match.
Posted by logic, Thursday, 22 February 2007 7:49:35 PM
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Labor has one Rudd,but the rest are duds.Perhaps Gillard and Garret the two GG's will bring us the Trojan Horse of socialism and obsessive compulsive greeny disorder that will bring us all asunder.

The public are tiring of the Coalition however Labor have but one shining star with no track record.
Posted by Arjay, Friday, 23 February 2007 8:50:39 PM
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As I explained Rudd has a good track record not as a parliamentarian, but as something far more important, real world experience in the diplomatic service and as a private consultant. He understands China to the extent that he speaks their language - does Howard or even Downer have any of that?

As an engineer with an electronics background I can assure you that Senator Conroy is way ahead of his Liberal Party ministers in understanding the reality of modern electronic communications. And when it comes to economics there are far more important indicators than merely interest rates and bogus unemployment figures - education, the ability to think creatively, skilled management of workers, real government support for industry, the things that actually make the economy and which other countries do better than us.

The Howard government cut support for all of these but fostered a myth that they were actually good for the economy. The environment is also important, spoil that and nothing can grow and we starve.

Democratic socialism actually worked very well in Sweden, Netherlands, it is easy to criticise their performance at the moment but we should be envious of their manufacturing industry.
Posted by logic, Sunday, 25 February 2007 5:05:26 PM
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