The bookies are rarely wrong in picking the winner of an Australian election! The favourite always wins, and they have a better record than the pollsters.

I’ve been tracking the odds the bookies are offering on the federal election since December. Here is how the market has moved, according to Sportingbet:

14 December (just after Rudd became leader of the ALP)
Coalition $1.57; ALP $2.30

27 Jan
Coalition $1.67; ALP $2.10

2 Feb
Coalition $1.70; ALP $2.10

5 Feb
Coalition $1.90; ALP $1.90

12 Feb
Coalition $1.85; ALP $1.95 (Sportingbet)
Coalition $1.80; ALP $1.90 (Centrebet)

Newspaper accounts report that in the last couple of days one punter invested $20,000 on the Coalition to be returned, which may explain why the Coalition’s odds have shortened in the last week.

Even so, it’s all a bit closer than John Warhurst suggests.

You can watch the odds yourself:

https://sports.centrebet.com/index.php, and clicking on “ELECTIONS: US PRESIDENT” at the bottom of the page; or

http://www.sportingbet.com.au/uipub/sport.aspx, and looking under the heading “Latest markets”

Come now, John, I doubt the electorate will buy the breaking of the drought as the work of the encumbent government!
It is interesting that the preceding article however, generally held the opposite view of yours. I imagine the result will lie somewhere in the middle.
Arcticdog.

It's a bit early to put money on the winner of the next federal election. The public are just emerging from their Xmas slumber. Serious punters are busy sorting out the Golden Slipper and are yet to turn their attentions to the federal election.

The only certainty is that we'll all get covered in horse s#@t once the real campaigning starts.

News polls,punting and al other for or against forcastes,do not coun.Any working man or woman or family,that is or is thinking to vote for the coalition,when an election is called,should first add subtract and divide,their income and see if they had gained or lost during the life of this parliament.I have done so,now just waiting for the John Howard to call an election.My calculations are in the red

Howard may exhibit physical vitality, but he seems lately to have contracted foot in mouth disease.

Did you see John Howard planting that tree? and if you looked closely you would have seen and heard Johns wife planting him!
It was revealing wasnt it? our tough PM , the man often on the arm of Bush hen pecked!
After John is confined to the dust bin our medea will be over run with storeys about our PM just like this.
That tape is a jewel, it has to be the best TV add Labor could ever run.
Is Col about? remember that song? by by by by Johny good by!

Like many I have long remembrance of the rule of Labor. I also have the Labor State government under my nose......and it smells.
Why vote for more of the same?
Has Rudd put forward any of his proposals for immigration and/or multi culture?
Does he have any?
Every election brings out the cry the Labor Party is "the underdog"
do they imagine that will bring them sympathy votes or is it that the public also remembers?