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North Korea: slow progress better than no progress : Comments
By Joseph Camilleri, published 19/10/2006Changing North Korea from the inside is more likely to be successful than external brute force.
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But let's look at where to go from here. We want to be safe from nuclear attack (by NK or others), they want security. Surely there is scope for a deal here.
Military is not an option. Our army is preoccupied in the middle east and even the Chinese are not keen to go in. What's more NK could flatten Seoul with conventional artillery.
Sanctions aren't really an option either. They don't have money to buy anything. Even a ban on military hardware won't do much as no one is keen to attack.
The mere fact that NK is the hermit kingdom means that we don't have any power over them. In fact it would be much better to trade with them as we then have the threat of removing trade. The biggest danger of further sanctions is that they won't have any money and must be more tempted to sell nukes to terrorists.
Now imagine if we went the other way. We sign a peace treaty guanteeing their borders. Then we make a bombs-for-aid deal where nuclear inspectors come in to audit the nuclear materials and we provide economic aid. Part of the aid could be a sattelite dish in every living room or even a PC and internet connection. While this may sound expensive, it would probably cost about the same as a few days war in Iraq. With South Korean soapies in every living room , free travel for North Koreans the regime couldn't hold out, it would collapse within a few years.
Such a deal is not without precedent. In the 60's we promised not to invade Cuba (and to to place nukes in Turkey) if the russians pulled their weapons out of Cuba. That deal was kept. Sadly we also imposed sanctions on Cuba with the result that Castro is still in power, decades after the collapse of communism.