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The Forum > Article Comments > Too little, too late > Comments

Too little, too late : Comments

By Henry Thornton, published 15/8/2006

Firmer monetary policy earlier would have left us in better shape now.

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Well said Foundation. You have pretty much hit the nail on the head. We are caught in a ridiculous cycle like mice racing around a treadmill. The average person cannot see the wood for the trees and cannot exercise the patience to build there wealth through non-specultive methods such as savings, working hard/intelligently and hence don't get angry enough about the stupid way that the economy is currently manipulated.

However there is a way to end it all in one fowl swoop and that is to cancel the system we are using now (one based on credit expansion from fractional reserve banking) and replace it with another system (when this cancellation takes place all savings and asset prices would be adjusted to take account of the change). It would take a brave soul to raise this sort of idea in public though. The "educated" economic academics and their students (the very ones who cannot control, model or predict the economy or explain the true nature of money) would shout it down with their puppet like chorus.

It is good to see there are at least a few of us who are taking a critical look at the current system and situation.
Posted by Daniel M, Thursday, 17 August 2006 8:48:36 AM
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foundation,
there are other tools such as tightening the money market.

For example,by legislating responsible credit availability some people will be knocked back on their 48 month 'interest free' purchases.

I am a little worried about your call for higher inflation. As the average grocery shopper will tell you, the cost of food is spiralling, and not just bananas. However, farmers will tell you that they are not getting more for their primary produce.

I suspect that the inflation genie has been let out of the bottle, with JH approval, and the system of calculating CPI is skewed to hide it.

You also mentioned higher wages.
What of the IR laws that were designed to drag wages down? (Amanda Vanstone told us so) The folk writing for a dead bloke reckon this is a good thing (earlier articles).

So if interest goes up, prices go up and wages go down, the ma and pa that you refer to will not be able to rent their repossesed house.

If the average people have no money it stands to reason that those who seek to exploit the markets will also suffer. The feudal overlords can afford to ride out the storm.

Just a reminder that Aus does not always follow overseas trends, for when Japan had Zero interest rates Australia did not follow.
Posted by Aka, Friday, 18 August 2006 9:02:50 AM
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I find it interesting to read the comments about wages increasing as being the saviour of the ordinary man, despite the hardships that rising rates will place on him, thanks to his take on of additional debt to try to get ahead. Whilst income increases are common in the world of investment banking, take some time to think of the situation of the many that fall into the category of unskilled labour (whether or not they are truly unskilled is a matter for another debate). For example, a relative of mine who is a tractor driver and general farm hand. He makes $16/hour - around $31-32k a year. 10 years ago when he started in the industry, he was paid $15/hour. Food was cheaper, power was cheaper, rents were certainly cheaper and water was generally free. His major concern is that beer was a lot cheaper and fuel prices to get to and from work in an area that has no public transport were then quite reasonable (although they still took up a sizeable chunk of the weekly budget). Now he makes $16/hour (which is not bad considering that the award wage is more like $13/hour) and it costs him around $20/hour to live (mind you this is not extravagent living - mortgage payments are only $150/week). Wages are not keeping pace with the costs of living for everyone. Realise that for some people, even small rate rises can spell doom. This particular farmhand is one of the lucky ones - despite his depressed income, he married a professional, who keeps the beer in the fridge and throws in the extra $4/hour and then some. Some of the others are not so lucky.
Posted by Country Gal, Friday, 18 August 2006 2:01:44 PM
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the recent ir legislation seems a little superflous when you can simply employ inflation to 'grease the wheels' of the labour market and lower the real wage rate.

part of the recent rate rises can be attributed to the may budget, any complaints about a reduction in marginal tax rates?

to manage inflation and unemployment is a juggling act. unfortunately you have to decide, one or the other.

however, in an extreme case - stagflation - you can enjoy both at the same time. higher prices and higher unemployment. if some highly publicised rate rises and a tough talking central bank can head off a supply side shock caused by inflated commodity prices and inflation speculation then yes, it is painful but necessary to avoid an increase in the price level combined with an increase in unemployment.

oh, and the price of oil - it's true, strong underlying demand but also note that 90% of the world supply is controlled by capital starved, national oil companies, reluctant to invest in capital to increase supply.
Posted by peff, Wednesday, 23 August 2006 9:59:10 PM
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I seem to be missing the point of the last posts wrt the article. I thought the main thrust of the article was about rates being raised to late to stave off inflation. My point was that I think that changing rates to control inflation is not the best way to achieve the desired outcome and that inflation is linked directly to the lose credit creation policies of the central banks who just create additional money supply in a willy nilly manner. If they created credit for constructive purposes only and in turn reduced the creation of speculative credit (such as the 48month interest free, our huge splurging on credit cards) they could achieve the same outcome without having to raise rates, or at least limit the required rate rise.

Wages can and are set by a combination of market forces and legislation and they do react to inflation but it is not the focal point of this article and they effect inflation and in turn the real purchasing power of wages is effected by inflation (what a great viscious cycle to be caught in).
Posted by Daniel M, Thursday, 24 August 2006 9:19:20 AM
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48 months interest free isn't credit creation. it doesn't increase the money supply. when you go to harvey norman and purchase a plasma for $4000 on interest free. no one banks $4000. it's simply a deferred payment. credit cards aren't money, they too are simply deferred payment where your bank agrees to make the payment for you until the end of the month when you pay it back etc.

the rba increases the money base only, which is but a fraction of our total money supply. banks are the actual components in the equation that 'create money' out of nothing through a multiplier process.

now i think it's apra or the rba who controls the bank's reserve ratio. so instead of money market operations to increase the interest rate they could raise these reserve rates which would limit the amount banks can lend. however, with demand greater than supply (as in any case - oil's a good example) the price level of that good, in this case money (loans) goes up. and in this case the price of money is the interest.
Posted by peff, Thursday, 24 August 2006 10:03:27 AM
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