Steve Madden, the Morgan Poll is arguably the least accurate of the polls. There is general movement in the polls based on staistical "noise", but it is often only the parties local electorate polling that has the real key to results in marginal seats. Also Howard won in 98 on 48.8% tpp and given success in campaigning in key seats could do so again. Too early to tell.

I agree that WorkChoices is being badly received, but I would expect some compensation for minimum wage earner - like LITO uplift or EITC's: the Fair Pay Commission will likely request it anyway.

See the recent OECD report which paves the way for reducing effective marginal taxation rates on the welfare transition - I think Labor could struggle against a bouyant labour-market with income distribution offset for minimum wage earners and other low paid workers. Whether Aussies prefer jobs and compensation over minimum wage uplift - well the Accord was popular for years in that context - though not now perhaps.

Labor will be tested if they don't get a welfare to work framework out soon. Because they will play catch up on job creation ... small target is still as risky as releasing policy direction.

Houses are far more expensive than they were 15 yrs ago as a proportion of income.Low interest rates and cheap car prices have made housing proportionately far more expensive.Just a small rise in interest rates will have an enormous impact on incomes,employment and economic activity.It won't take much to send us into recession.

Cheap fuel underpins our living standards,and this coupled with rising interest rates means disaster for the Coalition.NSW has been suffering low growth rates for two years already with Govt spending out of control and infrastructure languishing from neglect.

If the wheels fall off,there is no way I'll be voting for either of the major parties,since the Labor alternative would be a weak kneed disaster.