private enterprise and demand will ensure china lives up to expectations.

India will be the next big thing and overtake China for the simple reason it is a democracy and does not shy away from capitalism which history has proven to lead to economic growth. In fact we start seeing now that India in some industries (eg IT) is starting to outstrip the developed world. They are well educated, free thinking and want to be upwardly mobile. China is going to stall unless fundamental change occurs.

The right idea, but a weak piece.

A bankrupt banking sector and a trillion dollars of bad debt will cause an economic crunch as surely as night follows day.

And as for "realist's" religious faith in the market, 80% of the economy in China is still state-owned, remember.

My belief is that should democracy ever come to pass in China it (China) will fracture politically with the resultant knock on effect that its economic growth will at the very best be severely handicapped.

The article is a very welcome reminder that a anti-democratic state like China can never become a superpower economically, militarily or culturally. For those who say otherwise dream on but you are wrong....

HISTORICALLY:

In opening up to the world, China faces many challenges steming from its history. For only about 250 years has China ruled itself. Its traditions still stiffle its progress. While China has never experienced a protracted dark ages, its very earlier achievements in technology were in artisan and unification technologies (Needham, Jin). Greek philosophy, necessary for innovation was/is absent.

BUSINESS PRACTICE

Economic journalists and writers of popular books on "How to do Business in China", make the mistake of associating the ethnics of Confucianism with Chinese business practice. Confucianism was/is more inthe domain of the scholar and the agrarian. The Shang, the artisan and merchants, were cultural outcasts. If the modern entrepreneurs are from the Shang, modern business persons stand probable snake oil salesmen foundations.

This above is evident with UWS and UTS loosing millions in dealings with Australian academics doing business with businessmen the China and Chinese Diaspora. Australian deans are fooled by private education providers on a regular basis. DEST knows it; the AVCC knows it, but do nothing. DEST and the AVCC were warned of the situation six years ago, yet did not alert the universities.

As a post-grad. student you should read S.Gordon Redding (1990 and Robert Silin (1972/6?), not just the Economist Conferences and the like.

IN FUTURE THE LOOK FOR:

Oliarchies in the big cities, and tension between these oliarachies and provincial mayors.

INSTABILITY IN PROPERT THEN BANKING MARKETS

Much property investment uses interest only loans. Inflation could destablise the property/babnking sector in HK. Albeit, China PRC is trying to buy-in West Banking expertise.

CHINA WILL BUY INTO THE US

Just as Japan did.

The author touch all different issues. The main issue is the nature of Chinese Communist Party. they use rubber stump to do thing, corrupt and politically not stable. Last years there are 87,000 protest throughout China.

Country like China to be a superpower will be terrible for our planets. China citizens morality is very bad among young generations. there is big gap bewteen City and rural.

these thing should be mentioned in your articles. This is a few things i like to comments.

Regards,

heart

The great march and communist revolution were staged not by factory workers but disenfranchised peasants. As time removes these veterans from the politburo their roots may well be forgotten and history may repeat itself.

It is obvious that China is undergoing great change but you'd need a crystal ball to predict the future. If they don't curb corruption and regulate business I suspect they'll end up like Russia. Somehow everyone gets by but the standard of living is far below its potential.

In reply to some of the other comments:

Sure the ruling dynasties may often have originated on the steppes to the north of China but the rulers did "sinofy" during their reigns. The mandarins and "middle management government" were ethnic Chinese. The direction of Chinese innovation has been ruled by its abudance in cheap human labour and the flat eastern farm lands. Who needs steam engines and railroads if you control millions of peasants that can dig the grand canal. Neccessity is the mother of invention.

Japan did also buy into the US and blew a lot of their money not understanding the market. I don't think this is a huge problem for the west.

When on business in Taiwan I didn't encounter anyone desiring independence. Most people saw themselves as Chinese and seemed to hope that the mainland would reform enough for Taiwan to voluntary reunite. I never pressed anyone on how long that might take though.

Yes India might overtake China as an economic power but it also has a long way to go. It is a shame that is only idle speculation when we wonder where India and Pakistan might have been now if they hadn't split in 1947 and spend all their economic energy fighting each other.

I don't think India won't overtake China in economic sector but just in number of population.

China and India have same advantage --- extremely cheap labor cost.

India is copying Chinese economic mode but I don't think the economic mode will last for a long time when labor cost is rising slightly.

Another potential threat for India is its runaway population.It'll be a quite troublesome problem for Indian authorities to eat every Indian full.Severe famine can destroy stability and economy of the nation.

China's dark ages are here and are being revealed to the world now.



The Australian Coalition to Investigate the Persecution of Falun Gong (CIPFG) is authorised to release the following landmark independent investigation report in Australia:

REPORT INTO ALLEGATIONS OF ORGAN HARVESTING OF
FALUN GONG PRACTITIONERS IN CHINA
by David Matas and David Kilgour
July 6, 2006
Read the report: http://investigation.redirectme.net/

“Based on what we now know, we have come to the regrettable conclusion that the allegations are true. We believe that there has been and continues today to be large scale organ seizures from unwilling Falun Gong practitioners.” [Report excerpt]

The report was voluntarily prepared by Canadian Member of Parliament David Kilgour, (former director of Asia and Pacific division of Canadian Foreign Affairs Ministry) and renowned Canadian human rights lawyer, David Matas and backed by Members of Parliament from all parties. The report was released to the Canadian government July 6 after two months of research, with recommendations for diplomatic pressure and sanctions on China.

“I urge you to read this report and to make a contribution, in any way, to immediately investigate and stop these atrocities continuing in our world today.” Said John Xiao, CIPFG Spokesperson, Australia.

“This ‘living human trade’ is completely unacceptable in our country and to us, not only as Australians, but as human beings. At the absolute very least it warrants immediate investigation by the Australian government.” Said Mr Xiao.

The Australian CIPFG, established in April this year, has a growing membership of political, medical, legal and religious representatives, who do not practice Falun Gong, but who understand the urgency, as human beings, to investigate such atrocities.
For more information, Contact:
John Xiao, CIPFG Spokesperson, Australia, Mobile: 0425 885 768
Email: australia_cipfg@optusnet.com.au

my comment
So please dont talk about economics and democracy for Chinese people with the present rulers --- a brutal communist regime..

PLease see past the greed and remember history the Jewish Holocast Hitler's rise to power thru ecomonic reform., Olympic Games and then
marched on the world.

We all better start believing that truth compassion and forbearance will save the day.....