The Australian Electoral Commission tracks House of Reps. Minor party votes as to their Labor/Coalition preferences. In 1996, 45.98% of Democrat voters were Coalition leaners, in 1998 43.28%, 2001 35.87% and in 2004 41.09%
Applying these percentages to the Senate, in 1996, 542268 Democrat voters could be described as Coalition supporters, in 1998 410268, 2001 302546 and in 2004 102878.

I can see where Senator Murray is coming from. In practical terms, if the Democrats fold, there are up to 500000 ex Democrat, Liberal leaning Senate voters with no centre party to vote for, their votes electing a Liberal Senate as a last resort.

It takes two to tango so those posts rubbishing Murray et al should note the % of Coalition leaners in 2001. The left activists won. These are the people who took the Democrats left of centre, to competing with the Greens and Labor. Their stupidity cannot be overstated.

What does the future hold for these 500000 voters? Not happy with either of the major parties, not believing in any Green ‘moderation’ from the far left, not believing that the Democrats have yet rid itself of their infighting activists, I am one of the 500000 who are looking for a home for their vote.
A political void is waiting to be filled.

Interesting analysis Goeff but the only thing that matters is whether the 500 000 "lost" voters preference Liberal ahead of Labor or vice versa. If there is no Democrat candidate they can vote for an independent or any minor party but as seats are determined on a 2 party preferred vote the order of preference is what counts in the end.
With the demise of the Democrats and the Nationals heading down the same path the only effective third party left is the Greens.
See http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/polls.htm for more.

I will leave the psychopathology and revisionism to the conservative foreign editor of the Australian Greg Sheridan

"All the Democrats' troubles really go back to the GST, their internal disunity and loss of the permanent protest vote that resulted from the Democrats' endorsement of the GST.

It's no small irony that when Brian Harradine, a supreme parliamentarian and doughty foe of extremism of all kinds -- leftists in particular -- refused to pass the GST, he left its passage to the Democrats, and that may have destroyed them. If so they are likely tobe replaced by the Greens, who aremuch further to the Left than theDemocrats.

We are likely always to have a significant minor party presence in the Senate. It is in all our interests if that presence is as moderate and constructive as possible. It was gruesome on Sydney radio recently to hear a trivia quiz where listeners were asked to identify Lyn Allison, the Democrats' leader. Listener after listener failed.

Stott Despoja is not running for the Democrats' leadership, but if the party had an ounce of brains they would restore her to that position so they had an outside chance of surviving the next election.

This would be in all our interests. The Australian 22/09/2005

There does seem to be quite a bit of revisionism to these posts, a lot of people seem to think that Meg Lees and Murray are the people who back stabbed the Democrats, this is not my recollection. Here is my recollection

John Howard went to the 1998 poll proposing to introduce the GST.
Meg Lees went into the election opposing the GST, but saying that if the electorate voted the coalition back in, and in doing so voted the GST in. She would not oppose the GST, but would try to make it fairer for low income earners.
John Howard won the GST election
Meg Lees did what she said she would do and she got concessions for Food, Health and Education.
Even through she was elected as part of Democrats and did not ever said she would oppose the GST during the campaign, Natasha Stott Despoya decided that she would oppose the party on the GST legislation

Thus sow the seed that eventually led to the demise of the Democrats. They lost the Left wing of the party dued to their support of the GST and lost the centrist part of the party when Stott Despoya took them to the left

And for those people who want to re-write history so that we can see how great Stott Despoya was in creating support for her party. You should check out the opinion poll during the time she was leader of the Democrat, she managed to lift the support for the democrats from 3% to 2.5%.

Until a new centrist party emerges, the small “L” Liberals will continue to vote the Liberals, and they will continue to have ½ the senate

Has anyone thought about this? yesterday I visited a small company of 45 workers.
Once a bit naughty,, they paid massive back payments and got the firm back on track.
Growing from the then bottom of about 12 workers they are as neat as a pin and getting work as the best around.
Yet they have been informed a blow in has moved to town waiting for the new IR laws they are to cut wages then rates.
That firm haveing got to the top must now jion a race to the bottom to stay alive ,nice one Johny!a dead rabbit hung around the head of small business.

Well SA is in the bag for the ALP, like to be as sure of IR reform from an ALP federal goverment.
The NSW goverment intervention into the Boeing lock out is interesting.
Could it be Howard will be called on to shake this tree? to again get involved to help his rich mates?