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The simple-minded politics of international action on climate : Comments
By Nicholas Gruen, published 23/12/2005Nicholas Gruen argues in spite of Kyoto developing countries' economies and emissions keep growing.
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Posted by Yabby, Friday, 13 January 2006 9:58:32 PM
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Hey its ok, don't panic, I am right here :)
IMHO people don't do much in the name of ideology, but if they feel pain, they react pretty quickly. So in the energy debate, the so called "tragedy of the the commons" will apply. The world will use up all easily sourced and cheap energy, before anything changes.
Once the price skyrockets, things will change fast. That could well be not because of lack of energy, but instability in supplier countries, such as the Middle East.
A great deal of work is actually going on in Australia, regarding alternate sources. We produce around 600 K tonnes of lard alone, all which could be used for biodiesel when the price is right, which is about now. Many farms could switch to canola to drive their machinery at any time they wish. At present prices its marginal,
so nobody bothers, but if it becomes serious, it will happen really quickly.
So my take on this is as follows:
There are lots of sources of alternate fuel supplies, they will come to head when the price is right, that doesent mean that people arn't working on them right now.
People will act out of short term self interest. If the crunch came, they could cut their energy use dramatically, say by 30-40%, but they won't do it until the crunch comes and hits their pocket.
Some people might well jump on their bikes and cycle to work, to make themselves feel better, increase their endorphins etc, but whilst China and India are growing as they are, in global terms it won't make a scrap of difference.
We really do need to address the population problem. 6 billion can't live sustainablly right now, yet we don't even question the projected 10 billion in 2050, we just accept it as a given