I've been trying to find some info on the "oil peak". One extreme seems to be put by energy forecaster Peter Odell in "Why carbon fuels will dominate the 21stC ..." (2004). Odell suggests an oil peak in 2050, a gas peak in 2090. The editor of Energy Bulletin calls this "strangely optimistic." Other commentators seem to think that Odell is over-optimistic and uses flawed assumptions, but tend to stress the complexities and uncertainties in such forecasts rather than attempting a forecast themselves. I can't see anything to support an oil peak as early as 2010 as suggested by Tim Winton.

This reinforces my view that we need to develop our capacity to cope with change - which is the essence of species survival - rather than plan for any particular scenario or one aspect of cahnge.

Marion King Hubbert, an American petro-geologist predicted in the 1950s that the US would experience "peak oil" in 1970; he was correct to the year. This does not mean that the US ran out of oil then, rather that its own supplies could not meet it own demands, from then on. America's self-sufficiency in oil has been declining ever since - hence its interest in Arctic oil-drilling and (illegal and immoral military intervention) attempts at "stabilizing" the Middle-East (read the Iraq war). The mathematics are difficult and problematical, but the world's "peak oil" will probably be between 2005 and 2015; it is possible and even probable that the recent price rises in fuel were the first warning of the arrival of this phenomenon. There really is a lot out there on the Internet about this - chase it up, and already many books; I've read at least 5. It is not as new an issue as the original article suggests. So guys, get on yer bikes (or catch a bus or a train)!

Faustino,

Are you sure about your estimate of a 2090 peak from Peter Odell ? Even the most optimistic (sometimes called cornucopian) predictions generally put the peak in the 2030-2050 range...

The more pessimistic predictions (from various retired oil geologists, who are the most likely to know what is going on) range from 2005 (Deffeyes), 2010 (Colin Campbell - ASPO - http://www.peakoil.net) and 2015 (Laherrere).

The Hirsch Report (done at SAIC and commissioned by the US Department of Energy) is probably the most authoritative report on the range of estimates and needed actions to mitgate the decline in available oil supplies :

http://www.energybulletin.net/9768.html

Another good one to read is "The Countdown for the Peak of Oil Production has Begun – but what are the Views of the Most Important International Energy Agencies" by Zittel et al :

http://www.energybulletin.net/2544.html

Faustino - also, your statement dismissing the concept that "The economy will not grow if the energy supply does not" might seem to be true intuitively but there isn't any evidence to support it I'm afraid.

The Oil Drum has done a number of posts looking at the relationship in the US between GDP growth and oil consumption (which do support the quoted statement, even though the US is a de-industrialising country that has exported a lot of energy intensive industries) - check out this and the list of links at the bottom of the post :

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/10/24/18124/885

I don't believe its all gloom and doom. Already the first WA farms
have grown their own canola oil and powered all their vehicles with
it, using just a small % of their land. Nitrogen is less of an issue too, if legumes are included in rotations. Perhaps it would help a little if the govt didn't rush out and try to tax these people as their first reaction....

Next we have the potential of oil from algae, using brackish water, which is huge. But investment won't happen until energy prices stay high for a while. Only 6 or so years ago, oil was worth 10$ a barrel. In Australia we also have the potential to use huge natural gas reserves to power vehicles.

I believe that future energy will simply be more diversified then at present. Some oil, some home grown of various sorts, some gas, some coal, some wind, some solar, some more efficient use, etc. etc.

Somebody mentioned farming causing damage to land. Modern farming methods are far superior these days, with no- till etc. On the other hand, if you want to go back to hunter-gathering, city people would simply starve....

People, Lets not just concentrate on Oil. A Hydrocarbon economy is more than just the transport uses, but the petrochemical where all the derivatives are produced. Poly ethylene plastic (plastic milk cartoons, glad wrap), Poly Propylene (MCG seats) Vinyl Chlorides etc are all dervided from hydrocarbon streams associated with oil.

There are options around for energy fluids for transport, but plastics are probably not as easily replaced and/or thinking is not taking place on the effects of a shortage or replacement materials.