Good and timely article Cameron,

You addressed the paradigm shift that lots of software vendors are still struggling to understand. In todays business environment, Software is becoming more of a competitive edge provider rather than a mere cost management or process replication. Software licensing is and will become irrelevant in the struggle for the real business value proposition.

I do believe that survival of the fittest in software business and versus Open-source will be guided by the following success criteria:

- Ability to provide real business value proposition (ROI, TCO, faster time to market, etc..)
- Friendly user experience (workflow and business process modelling).
- Capacity to provide it as a service (inside/outside the firewall/web delivered).
- Industry specific customer journey.

Open source is going to be a niche "market" in the near to long term. It's main place is in the pc tinkers area. Linux is not seen as a viable alternate for Unix, VMS, tandem... And it is still hard to get comprehensive support for open source software. My company has found that most open source installations get backed out not long after the first big system failure.

An interesting article on an interesting subject, but the comments so far indicate that it is unlikely ever to create a lively dinner-party conversation. Which is as it should be - dinner-party chat should concentrate on the results of the application of technology, rather than the technology itself.

To those in the industry, Open Source is the biggest thing since sliced bread. It heralds a new way of deriving value from collaboration as opposed to competition, and is mainly concentrated on the underlying technologies that glue systems together, rather than the stuff we get to see - supermarket checkouts, ATMs etc.

The industry is clearly divided right now into two camps: those companies (and their employees) whose market domination - or even livelihood - is threatened by the emergence of these systems. And those who are comfortable using others' work - willingly given - to build upon, without having to pay through the nose for the privilege.

In the US, the more rabid opponents of Open Source introduce bills into the Senate to outlaw it as "unconstitutional"; in their view, giving away the product of your skills for free borders upon communism, and is therefore automatically suspect. Some even suggest that it is "aiding the enemy", and concoct all sorts of stories about how, in Al Quaeda's hands, Open Source software can be used against America.

It's a hoot.

Open Source will continue to gain marketshare, mainly in organizations who i) hate the unreliability of Windows ii) are fed up with the regular payments they are forced to make for "upgrades" that they don't need and iii) want - and need - a far safer (from viruses etc.) environment to work in.

It won't happen overnight, mainly due to the squillions of our money that the various companies currently have in their coffers to fight off the threat.

But it will happen. Enjoy the show.

Pericles,

Spot on!
Openscource is a shift in consumer behaviour from software as a license to software as a business service.
Microsoft made a habit of underestimating shifting trends in the market. They are doing it again now with the dogmatic understanding of mobility. Now Blackberry oversold imate by 3 million units in 18months!.