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The Forum > Article Comments > Is the Asian Tsunami an omen of things to come? > Comments

Is the Asian Tsunami an omen of things to come? : Comments

By Peter McMahon, published 4/1/2005

Peter McMahon says that the consequences of the Indian Ocean Tsunami are similar to what we can expect from global warming.

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My understanding was that the Antarctic Ice pack was increasing, and that sea ice had been icreasing since 1979 (lasting 21 days longer). This is a reversal of a 6000 thousand year trend.

This may suggest that we are now entering a period of global cooling, although it is obviously too early to suggest that this is the start of a new ice age.

I recommend a search of scientific papers on google. I looked it up after reading Michael Crichton's latest book.

If Jack above is correct, and the change in the ice pack in Antarctica caused the trunami, then maybe we should look at melting part of the ice pack?
Personally I think it extrordianary bordering on the rediculous to suggest mere humans are influancing tetonic plates.
Posted by peterd, Sunday, 23 January 2005 9:32:02 PM
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The more likely explanation of recent earthquakes is that the moon exerts a daily, tidal pull on eath's crust, just as it does on the oceans to produce daily tides. The estimated extent of crustal tides ranges around 20cm as the moon passes overhead. This quote is from Ken Ring's site in NZ

http://www.predictweather.com/articles.asp?ID=3

regarding the coincidence of moon phases and earthquakes:

"Moscow researchers studied the catalogue of earthquakes from 1964 to 1992. They found that most severe earthquakes in the region of the Pacific seismic ring also started at the days of new moon or full moon, or a couple of days earlier or later. Longrange forecasters have known for a long time that earthquakes come more often around new and full moons. The quakes also occur when the moon is furthest north or south (that's called the N or S declination), and when the moon is closer or furthest from earth(perigee/apogee). When these three cycles peak, earthquakes are three times as likely. The recent tsunami was such a case, as was the Napier earthquake in 3/2/31. But whether or not a tsunami results depends on the depth of the epicentre. This event was only about 10m below the earth's crust. The 1931 Napier quake was considerably deeper but still caused a wave one to two metres high. And a significant factor is that declination is nearing a 19 year peak, just as it was in 1931, triggering earthquakes again potentially more powerful. The director of the Meteorological service of Thailand was sacked because he failed to issue a warning that the tsunami would arrive in an hour, because he didn’t want to affect tourism if he was wrong.

"The perigee of January 10th was the closest the Moon came to Earth since March 1993 and won't be bettered until 2016. On 7/1/05 we put out a press release warning.  We thought earthquakes were possible near January 9th (on E of NZ? at 4am, midday or midnight). One happened on the 9th at 4pm, with the epicentre just south of Taupo, a 3.7mag but far enough down at 74kms that it probably wasn’t felt.

http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_tbbg.html

Given the perigee, the SD and the apogee, it was reasonable to expect activity between 9th-12th. Sure enough, in the Pacific region we had on the 11th: one in Tonga, a 4.9, 25kms down; on the 12th one in Alaska, a mag4.7; one in India at mag4.8 a quite big one on Tonga, 5.5mag, 15kms down, also a 6.8mag in the midAtlantic just to the left off Africa. In the last 7 days they've had 515 earthquakes on the W coast of N America.
The next apogee of Jan 24th will again be the second furthest away for the year. So Jan 23rd-25th with its FM+A+N.dec looks like a time for another lot of large earthquake activity."

I would guess that any minicule difference in crustal loading by melting ice masses would hardly rate, compared to the regular, daily crustal flexing caused by the moon's graviational pull.

Greenies really are desperate if they have to capitalise on some hypothetical threat to bolster their already flimsy case for "global warming".
Posted by A is A, Monday, 24 January 2005 12:47:14 PM
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An opinion piece I recommend to “peterd” about icecap melting & growing is by George Monbiot in the "Guardian Weekly", May 20-26, titled “Junk Science” dealing with “inaccurate and selective figures on glacier shrinkage” quoted in the “New Scientist” by British botanist David Bellamy:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,1480376,00.html
Posted by zen-politics, Sunday, 29 May 2005 3:15:52 PM
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