The author makes some valid points, but turning this juggernaut around will not be easy, especially in the short term.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Australia needs to lift its government spending in some areas, notably defence. The world is becoming more dangerous and unpredictable, and allies we thought we could rely on are proving unstable and even hostile.

The benign and rules-based global trade order that until recently delivered massive benefits to trade-reliant countries like Australia is breaking down. Security of supply and self-sufficiency are likely to become more important than efficiency and price in deciding where we buy and sell some goods and services. This may be necessary, but it will come at a cost. Government spending will be larger, and GDP will be smaller, as a result.

Thanks to the Iran war, we are probably heading into a recession, quite possibly a nasty one featuring the triple whammy of falling output, rising unemployment and spiralling inflation. Usually, tax revenues fall and government spending rises in a recession. The deficit is likely to get worse, not better.

Reforming badly designed programs will take time. The NDIS is the standout example of a policy that was great in theory but badly implemented in practice. The government can’t just cut payments that disabled people have come to rely on, it needs time to focus on the people who really need the scheme, put in place alternatives for people moved off it, and implement better governance and management systems.

In these circumstances, the “neat solution” of a cap on government spending of 25% of GDP may be hard to deliver.