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The Forum > Article Comments > Can the US handle conflict on 3 fronts? > Comments

Can the US handle conflict on 3 fronts? : Comments

By Graham Young, published 6/11/2023

Mearsheimer asserts that the determinants of who wins a war, particularly wars of attrition like that in Ukraine, are manpower and manufacturing capacity.

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The Ukrainian President has got the huff because Israel's defence against Hamas terrorists has 'taken the focus off him'.

The US is giving a lot more monetary assistance to Ukraine than it is to Israel, but has a physical presence off Israel, which is probably of more use.

Australia can't even make a 'phone call to Israel, but the Albanese extreme Leftist government is anti-Israel.

Australians had better start asking if the U.S will have the energy and wherewithal to protect Australia on top of everything else the increasingly feeble 'leader of the free world' has on its plate. The Albanese government is more interested in arming Ukraine than it is in the defence of Australia.

Ukraine is doomed, and should be dropped like a hot potato.

The fact that the entire West has handed manufacturing over to Communist China, daft in the first place, now looks like being a real disaster.

The 'sometime-in-the-next-few-decades' nuclear submarines is another pending disaster , with the option of buying U.S made subs also looking iffy, as the U.S struggles to build enough shipping for itself these days.

And, of course, the Albanese government: interested only in selling plonk and letting out our North most harbour to our biggest threat since the Japanese bombed that same harbour. God help us. Nobody else will, including our ramshackle government.
Posted by ttbn, Monday, 6 November 2023 8:00:04 AM
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The risings star is the re election of Donald Trump which looks almost imminent. The proviso is if the panicked Democrats don’t assassinate him or succeed in jailing him before the election in 2024.

The US is in free-fall domestically with demonstrations of breathless ineptitude, not the worst of which is dealing with ten million illegal border crossings since the criminal election of the Biden Administration.

Accidentally, Australia has elected a pro Communist administration, probably in the nick of time to counter our reliance on the totally unreliable US, and with greater ability to negotiate with the potential winners of a growing possibility of conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

What matters most is successful trade, and not to be drawn into another losing US war.
Posted by diver dan, Monday, 6 November 2023 8:56:51 AM
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Dear diver dan,

Mate, what juice are you on?

The American economy is booming. The annualised 3rd quarter growth rate is 4.9%. The S&P 500 are seeing double digit profits. Jobs growth while slowing a little still remain above the 150,000 per month figure.

By all accounts Trump did indeed commit fraud. It would be a far greater concern if he were not held to account for that and other crimes because it would indicate a failed system, then you would be able to claim justifiably that it was in free fall.

And to claim the Albanese government is pro communist is deranged nonsense, so why do it?
Posted by SteeleRedux, Monday, 6 November 2023 9:18:44 AM
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SR.

And to claim the Albanese government is pro communist is deranged nonsense, so why do it

And to lead with a right, followed by a left cross; you would agree I strongly suspect, Oct7 Hamas attackers are the good guys, and it’s all the fault of the Fascist Netanyahu right wing Government, and ignoring calls for a cease fire in Gaza is genocide of Palestinians?

Well there you go!
Posted by diver dan, Monday, 6 November 2023 9:54:28 AM
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"A decline in courage may be the most striking striking feature which an outside observer notices in the West these days .... from ancient times decline in courage has been considered the beginning of the end", observed Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn in 1978.

That was 45 years ago. It is so much worse now.
Posted by ttbn, Monday, 6 November 2023 10:00:03 AM
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ttbn

And to highlight your good point; once in the West, our leaders as Royalty and their Knights for example, personally engaged in active warfare on the front line of battle.

How difficult to even imagine Biden leading the US into battle on horse back: That’d be beyond comical!

How times change.
Posted by diver dan, Monday, 6 November 2023 12:06:10 PM
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I repeat the comment I made on youtube - with regard to Ukraine:

Meersheimer regrets that the US involves itself with the Middle East and Ukraine. Note that he doesn't give any alternatives - so according to him, just "focus on China" and to hell with everyone else! How absolutely stupid! His pro-Russia comments contradicts everything that politicians and economists are saying! Politically, Russia is weak and under the control of a corrupt regime, and is falling apart. With 100 rubles to a US dollar Russia is an economic basket case. To call Russia "a great power" is bulls_ that could only come from someone who is totally out of touch OR in the "financial pocket" of Russia!


Ukraine, as a democratic sovereign State was guaranteed political autonomy and Russia was a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum! Its borders were guaranteed, and Ukraine gave up all of their nuclear arsenal as part of the deal. None of this is mentioned by Meesheimer! Nor does he mention that "Russia" is dispersed into many ethnic groups that Russia controls - for now!! The time is coming where internal revolution in Russia will destroy it as a united hegemony.

His analysis of the present war is so full of bulls_! Particularly when he says that Russia will win this war and control at least 40% of Ukraine! I burst out laughing when I heard this idiot make this prognosis without ANY rational justification for his weird assessment
Posted by Yuri, Monday, 6 November 2023 1:32:08 PM
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to claim the Albanese government is pro communist is deranged nonsense, so why do it?
SteeleRedux,
being Communist/Left is the same as being stupid, so why lean that way ?
Posted by Indyvidual, Monday, 6 November 2023 2:21:56 PM
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The war of the future will be largely fought by machines and AI! And we need to gear up so we can service what have in military gear/machines and manufacture missiles, smart bombs, and modern jet airplanes!

We also need to get busy manufacturing alternative fuel from blue green algae and native wisteria. Both of which grow well here! And from digested organic matter. That in total will give us every fuel type needed and lots of it.

With nuclear power at our disposal, we can even source all fuels locally, fertilizer and plastics from seawater.

We need to upgrade the Collins class subs with nuclear reactors so they will serve us until we get the US Nuclear subs.

Given China has perfected MSR thorium, we should ask if she would sell us a couple for mine site power. So, we can keep sending them our rocks and LPG.

We could then copy the reactors and mass produce same here for the Collins class and self-defence manufacture. Nuclear reactors bring steam driven venturi drive systems on to the table.

Venturi drives will enable the subs to all but fly fully submerged and without telltale cavitation. 50 knots would not be out of the question and make the subs a lot safer!

They could carry some rear loaded torpedoes that don't attack anything under 200 hundred feet and lock in on cavitating props. We had same toward the end of the last war.

Meaning any destroyer trying to drop ashcans on our subs would get their ass kicked to kingdom come. Literally.

Anything else is just burying the head somewhere warm and comfortable. As we may need to stand on our own two feet in self-defence terms, given the US's current Load. We need to make the cost of attacking this nation too dear for any hostile aggressor!

And that isn't possible relying on battery and pumped hydro backed renewables! Refugees could earn citizenship by a term in the military and on active service?
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Monday, 6 November 2023 4:20:08 PM
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Russia has always been a third world country with first world weapons and that remains the case today. But as their economy unravels (collapsing rouble is just one symptom) their ability to maintain their first world weaponry also unravels. Its very true that Russia will probably 'win' this war if winning is defined as ending up with more real estate than you started with. But given that their stated aim was to keep NATO at arms-length, they've already lost with Finland and Sweden signing up and Poland now racing to become the foremost European military force.

Its true that the US has run its land-based armaments down in order to support Ukraine but that doesn't affect its ability to operate elsewhere. Additionally, however the war concludes or peters out, I can't see the US putting boots into Ukraine. I do see a western Ukrainian stump being absorbed into the embrace of an increasingly confident Poland which in turn will be able to halt any further Russian ambitions, acting as the west's proxy.

Equally, the US is supplying ordinance and backup support for Israel but, again, its difficult to see how that diminishes their ability to operate in the western Pacific.

There's all sort of issues as regards Chinese ambitions vis a vis Taiwan and the rest of the western Pacific nations. While its true that China is rapidly developing a blue water navy which now out-numbers the US, numbers aren't the sole determinant of success. Quality of the armaments is also of importance as is historic experience. The Chinese navy is completely untested and its success in a full shooting war with the US is uncertain
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 6 November 2023 5:49:00 PM
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While the US has been expending ordinance on the Eurasian steppes and now in the skies over Israel, none of that comes from the US navy. It remains as ready to fight and as fully-armed as any time before Putin's adventures.

Its very true that the US is currently led by the greatest group of incompetents in its history and that fact calls into question its ability to withstand a determined Chinese push. But when the shooting starts the incompetents in the White House take a back-seat to the, likely, more competent leaders in the Pentagon.

I fully discount the chances of China attempting to take Taiwan via siege. That takes time and China wouldn't have time. Were China to instigate a blockade of Taiwan, Taiwan's allies wouldn't necessarily need to fight to break the blockade. They could and probably would simply cut China's supply-lines for oil and food through Malacca and the race would be on to see which Chinese entity succumb first. Knowing that, China would need to take Taiwan so quickly that they presented the west with a fait accompli. Its possible they'd succeed but my guess is they'd fail or the costs would be so enormous as to be not worth it.

China is now a power at or near its peak with diminishing prospects. It remains a manufacturing powerhouse but this declines each year. This year, for the first time, more investments funds left China than entered. Manufacturing is being withdrawn at an accelerating rate and is going to India, Vietnam and Mexico. Yes, they have a current temporary near-monopoly on rare-earths, but again, that is recognised and rapidly being rectified.

That means that China is both less likely to be a medium term threat but, perhaps, more likely to be a near-term threat as it sees its prospects disappear in the rear-view mirror. The US and its Asian allies may or may not be able to successfully face that near-term threat. But what is happening on the Eurasian steppes or the Levant won't affect the outcome in the western Pacific.
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 6 November 2023 6:01:56 PM
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Two can play at the siege game. The sea lanes that bring middle eastern oil to China are as easily closed as any in the world. Much of their oil & coal supplies are just as vulnerable to interdiction as our oil supplies, & they know it.

We have no need to be vulnerable. We have a few hundred years supply of oil right here, both liquid & by fracking. It is criminal that we let tinpot governments like Victoria prevent harvesting of their own gas, while bitching about the price other states want for theirs.
Posted by Hasbeen, Monday, 6 November 2023 10:30:54 PM
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"The sea lanes that bring middle eastern oil to China are as easily closed as any in the world. "

There's a reason why Australia is spending $1,3 billion to buy Tomahawk missiles and why the US is anxious that we become only the second country to be given access to them. Their range means that the Straits of Malacca are within reach of our missile systems and that, therefore, this sea route, so vital to China, could be closed or severely disrupted to shipping in the event of any Chinese adventurism.
Posted by mhaze, Tuesday, 7 November 2023 9:35:45 AM
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Dear diver dan,

You ask: "you would agree I strongly suspect, Oct7 Hamas attackers are the good guys, and it’s all the fault of the Fascist Netanyahu right wing Government, and ignoring calls for a cease fire in Gaza is genocide of Palestinians?"

No I don't agree the Hamas attackers are the good guys. Much like the partisans, particularly in the Balkans during WW2, who were a law unto themselves and operated often with horrific brutality so the question is more about whether they are the leaders the Gazans need rather than those they want.

Gaza had remained the only part of Palestine which, since the Israelis were forced out, has been spared the land theft and dehumanising internal checkpoints which have blighted the West Bank.

And yes if the Armenian Genocide is worthy of the title then the direction we are headed in Gaza earns it too.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 7 November 2023 10:22:33 AM
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This war was planned and started by Hamas with the full intention of forcing a massive retaliation by Israel with the full knowledge of the consequences to the Gazan civilians. Hamas's atrocities started the dance and they are now facing the full force of the music.

Regarding handling conflicts on 3 fronts, the US is only superficially involved in either of them. The US support of Ukraine is about 5% of their military budget and mostly involves the Ukrainians killing Russians with weapons that are either obsolete or old. In contrast, Russia's army is being bled dry and is only a shadow of its previous self.

The support for Israel is having two carrier forces offshore blocking any 3rd party from interfering in Israel's pest control.

Regarding Taiwan, the increasing supply of long-range anti-ship weapons and cluster munitions aimed at potential landing sites will make any planned invasion by China incredibly expensive in lives and equipment. A blockade of energy supply to China would bring it to its knees very fast.
Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 7 November 2023 1:27:30 PM
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Israel says, "We are not at war with the people of Gaza" as the death toll passes 10,000... Hmmmm.

To give you some sense of the scale of the killing, we are now in the 20th month of Putin's war on Ukraine. An estimated 10,000 civilians have been killed in the war, including 600 children. Israel's war in Gaza will likely kill 10,000 by the end of this week, one month into its war. Over 4,000 of those victims are children.

Nice to know that Israel is only after those Hamas terrorists!
Posted by Yuri, Tuesday, 7 November 2023 8:31:43 PM
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Hamas Claims that 10,000 people have been killed. Hamas has been caught lying many times before. But useful idiots post this figure as gospel.

Based on past lies the figure is probably closer to 3000 with 1000 of them being Hamas terrorists.
Posted by shadowminister, Wednesday, 8 November 2023 4:31:48 AM
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How many people have died in Gaza since the Hamas attack?

More than 10,000 people have been killed by Israeli strikes, according to Palestinian health authorities, with over 4,000 of the casualties being children.

On Monday, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Gaza was becoming a "graveyard for children" and called for an urgent ceasefire.

"Gaza is becoming a graveyard for children," Guterres said.

"Hundreds of girls and boys are reportedly being killed or injured every day."

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/one-month-in-this-is-the-toll-of-the-hamas-israel-war/49qes9n5l
Posted by Yuri, Wednesday, 8 November 2023 7:18:18 PM
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Yuri

Palestinian health authorities are 100% controlled by Hamas and have been caught deliberately exaggerating casualty figures by as much as 500%.
Posted by shadowminister, Thursday, 9 November 2023 7:44:24 AM
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