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A matter of interest: the RBA, inflation and corporate profits : Comments
By Binoy Kampmark, published 12/6/2023As part of its 2023 Economic Outlook , the OECD, on decomposing the GDP of 15 nations, found 'a significant part of the unit profits contribution has stemmed from profits in the energy and agriculture sectors...'
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The OECD report does not corroborate the Australia Institute’s. The Australia Institute’s analysis is wrong, but the OECD’s is right. The difference lies in the measure used to gauge inflation. The massive growth in profits in Australia in recent years is almost entirely confined to the mining sector, which has benefitted from record-high prices in sectors such as energy and iron ore. Because these prices are charged mainly to overseas corporations not domestic consumers, they have little or no effect on Australian consumer prices, which is the most common measure of “inflation”, and the one that matters to the RBA and Australians generally. The Australia Institute is wrong to claim this inflation measure has been boosted by profits.
The OECD’s analysis uses a much broader price measure – the Gross Domestic Product deflator – which measures the prices of all goods and services produced in the economy including not just consumer goods but also capital goods, government spending and – most importantly – exports. This has indeed been boosted by record prices for mining exports that are reflected in record profits. As the OECD report explains:
“ … for oil and gas exporters, the prices of goods produced domestically and then exported rose rapidly, pushing GDP inflation above headline consumer price inflation.”
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/ce188438-en/1/3/1/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/ce188438-en&_csp_=f8e326092da6dbbbef8fbfa1b8ad3d52&itemIGO=oecd&itemContentType=book
This effect is even more marked for Australia as its other mineral exports also attracted high prices.
The OECD analysis covers the period from 2019 to 2022. For the Stats nerds, here is the growth in some key measures between the March quarters of 2019 and December 2022:
Implicit price deflators:
11.4% Private consumption
53.5% Exports
25.6% Imports
18.1% GDP
Other price measures:
14.6% Consumer Price Index
9.3% Wage Price Index
Gross operating surplus:
103.8% Mining
18.9% Other
35.0% Total