Aidan,

Apparent the dictionaries and I differ significantly with you on the meaning of breakthrough.

Incremental improvements and mass production have reduced the unit cost and efficiency of solar panels and wind turbines. What they haven't done is reduce the cost of distribution networks required, the short lifespan of wind turbines or the inability to guarantee generation at any point in time.

For example, any wind turbine built prior to 2023 has either been scrapped or is about to be. Germany's fleet of wind turbines and solar panels has for a week or two generated 100% of the country's requirements but has also for a week or two generated next to zero power. The only reason its network hasn't collapsed is the ability to import power from France's nuclear reactors and Germany's fleet of coal and gas power stations.

I suppose that Aiden is going to invest family and friends money in his pie in the sky energy ideas. Good luck in his venture- probably won't have many friends soon. It's hard to argue with success or failure.

Shadow,
I think it's more a case of you misinterpreting what dictionaries say than my disagreeing with them.

>ncremental improvements and mass production have reduced the unit cost and
>efficiency of solar panels and wind turbines. What they haven't done is reduce the
>cost of distribution networks required,
They have for HVDC, even if they haven't for AC.

>the short lifespan of wind turbines
They've tended to prioritise capability over longevity, but you seem to be greatly underestimated their lifespans. Though I can't be sure how short you think they are, as 2023 is quite obviously a typo!

>or the inability to guarantee generation at any point in time.
But they can achieve an equivalent outcome with storage.

>Germany's fleet of wind turbines and solar panels has for a week or two generated
>100% of the country's requirements but has also for a week or two generated next to
>zero power
What is your source for that claim?

>The only reason its network hasn't collapsed is the ability to import power from
>France's nuclear reactors and Germany's fleet of coal and gas power stations.
Why single out France when Germany trades electricity with all its neighbours?

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Canem,
I'm not investing anyone's money and not planning to. I'm a transport engineer, not an electrical or power systems engineer. But being an engineer I do keep abreast of developments, so while the feeble minded on this board dismiss the last decade's developments as pie in the sky, I'm more aware of what's already practical and many of the things which will soon become practical.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current#Disadvantages

Aiden- With respect and without going into details there are a few people on this forum that have significant engineering knowledge- in many cases more than myself- and try to stay abreast of technological developments. The fact that you know what a truss and the forces on it means that you've studied "Statics". When investigating electrical networks- network analysis tools are useful. My understanding of HV 2 and 3 phase power is a bit spotty but the above Wiki article is fairly informative. At least I know what transformers and rectifiers are. In mechanical systems linkages seem understandable to me- but in electrical systems linkages seem to have complex feedback effects- HVDC and UHVDC seem interesting but seem to only apply over distances greater than one thousand kilometres- it's only recently in Australia that electricity has been exchanged between states.

It's a bit hard to know what your level of skill is- and I don't care. To sell an expensive and unknown product to the public requires convincing information and percentage significant benefits to offset the various risks- sometimes these risks can be absorbed into the supply chain. Renewable technology is relatively new and while there are opportunities there are also risks- and some technology doesn't scale well- in a sense no one knows what will work and what won't work until a project has been done.

Large scale engineering projects require teams of engineers each with specialist expertise.

Despite your claims I am not confident in renewable technology in the scenarios you are proposing and will not be relying on it if I have a choice- though I may make incremental changes- and so should the state infrastructure.

One of my concerns is that tracking technology improvements with population increases and political pressure seems to indicate accelerating shortfalls and crisis similar to those described by Malthuse

I remember the VFT Train Eastern Corridor Project where all sorts of tactics were attempted to justify the project but it still hasn't been done.

Similarly if we need to take a leap of faith from our current system to renewables in order for the economics to work- it makes me concerned.

Once in a while project contractors come out of the woodwork to promote some construction- but I'm not always convinced that the public is getting value for money.

Aidan,

Yes, it was a typo. Typically, the lifespan of wind turbines is about 20 years, meaning those installed before 2003 have either been decommissioned or will be soon.

HVDC is 40 years old and is not as cheap as you think.

http://www.energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE

This will show German generation by source over the last decades. You can clearly see periods of zero wind/solar generation.

As Germany's neighbours being so close also share similar weather, when Germany's renewables sag so do theirs and the only country with decent baseload is France. But yes they all do trade.

And while you are a transport engineer, I am an electrical / power systems engineer.