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Risk, renewables and inconsistencies : Comments
By Charles Hemmings, published 28/12/2022An old adage for investment management is: do not put all your eggs in one basket.
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Excellent article from someone who actually believes in the 'c o two ballyhoo'.
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 9:04:16 AM
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A couple of months ago in SA I had to ponder the incongruities of the way energy is perceived. The last 100km into Pt Augusta was lined with wind towers many idle or barely moving. In Pt Augusta near where the old coal stations were was a solar tower and mirror field, for some reason also not working. Further on to Roxby Downs to visit a relative. The nearby Olympic Dam mine is the world's largest uranium deposit which helps generate 200 TWh or so of near zero carbon electricity in other countries. Yet the SA government shuns it to remain dependent on dwindling gas supplies and says hydrogen (at 30% efficiency) will save us.
So it's all about perception rather than reality. People want to believe that Albanese can fix the energy market but doubts must be creeping in. Albo doesn't like nuclear perhaps he should stop other countries from using Australian uranium. If power prices don't go down in 2023 he should go. Posted by Taswegian, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 9:33:21 AM
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I don't get the idea of a hydrogen economy. I have heard arguments presented claiming that less than a fifth of the captured energy is utilised this way, which would make it well over five times the cost of the energy used to make it. Aluminium does not have that problem, but aluminium battery technology still has some technical problems to overcome.
Wind and solar currently get around seven billion taxpayer dollars a year in handouts and give expensive and unreliable energy in return. Nuclear energy is a big threat to them. Posted by Fester, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 1:32:00 PM
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PM Albatross will fix it!
Posted by diver dan, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 2:00:54 PM
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Agree with most of this. We should invest in nuclear, but not just any nuclear, but cheaper than coal MSR thorium. And in public hands, ours, could be retailed for less than 3 cents PKWH!
Thorium is the most energy dense material in the world. MSR comes with a much cheaper and faster build. Can be mass produced in factories. And shipped almost anywhere as ready to use complete modules in shipping containers. Operates at ambient air pressure. Cannot melt down given it's designed to operate in a molten state. Produces far less far less toxic waste which is eminently suitable as long-life space batteries. Thorium delivers everything fusion promised but has yet to deliver. Loss of power for any reason results in an automatic and absolutely safe shutdown. Can be tasked with burning nuclear waste as fuel where it's largely mostly unspent fuel. Fuel we would be paid annual millions to take. With the resulting remaining waste far less toxic and with a reduced half-life of just 300 years. There were a couple of minor issues with MSR thorium which have recently been fully ironed out! Only morons, fools and moribund idealogues would refuse to look at MSR thorium as a complementary power source. And if that cap fits? Alan B. Posted by Alan B., Wednesday, 28 December 2022 4:22:08 PM
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SA is rumoured to have done a 10 day stint on sun and solar alone. I say 'rumoured' because who can you believe these days!
Our only coal powered electricity supply was blown up by the previous government, and the current government has guaranteed the gas one only until 2026. That leaves only the interstate interconnecter, the failure of which plunged the state into darkness not so long ago. Our new young and enthusiastic Premier told us the other day that we were 'world leaders' in renewables. I'd rather we were world leaders in in cheap, reliable energy. He has expressed an interest in nuclear - as did his predecessor, who chickened out, but 'Mali' as Ockernese calls him - probably because he can't pronounce his name - has been squashed by the said Ockernese. Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 5:02:21 PM
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"blown up by the previous government" should read, blown up by the previous Labor government. I probably made the blue because the Liberal government between the last Weatherill Labor government and the current Malinauskas Labor government was so useless as to be easily forgotten.
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 28 December 2022 5:23:22 PM
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A realistic assessment of the situation by someone who knows rather than just some academic "expert" !
Our leaders would be well advised to listen to this man. Posted by Indyvidual, Thursday, 29 December 2022 6:26:50 AM
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Very interesting article.
I doubt Chris Bowen would read it. It is probably over his head. Bowen said recently that they have to install 22,000 solar panels a day for the next 8 years. He also said they have to install 90 wind turbines a month for the next eight years. I am sure he believes that. That belief if I was PM would be enough to sack him from the job. I have had experience in organising a very small group of techs to undertake work well away from the workshop in the country. Someone has to organise the frames on which the panels are mounted. Some factories are to produce the steel work, get the land cleared and start assembling the frames and concreting them into place. In all the days that operating takes, remembering they are all over the country and semi trailers have to be organised to get the right number of frames to each site wherever it might be. All these days means 22,000 panels per day were not mounted so they have to be added to the 22,000 a day. The teams organised in the country to mount these 22,000 a day have to have transport and accommodation organised to start mounting these panels which semis will have to be organised to deliver at the preset rate. Then the electrical people have to follow on connecting the panels to the wiring someone has installed between all the frames and to a site control hut. Anyone that believes that can be done in eight years should be sacked. The possibilities of cost over run is astronomic. Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 29 December 2022 10:18:26 AM
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ttbn,
>Our only coal powered electricity supply was blown up by the previous government, No it wasn't. The three economically unviable coal fired power stations at Port Augusta were demolished by McMahon Services, and it was Flinders Power not the government which commissioned them to do so. >and the current government has guaranteed the gas one only until 2026. Which gas one? There's lots of them! >That leaves only the interstate interconnecter, Two of them (1 large, 1 small) plus another (large) one under construction. >the failure of which plunged the state into darkness not so long ago. ...resulting in measures implemented to ensure that can never happen again. Since then our electricity supply has been the most reliable in the nation. Nuclear power won't make us world leaders in cheap reliable energy, but renewables probably will. And if Albo's calling the premier "Mali" he's probably just following the 'tiser's lead. Posted by Aidan, Thursday, 29 December 2022 10:23:58 AM
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Does anyone have a figure on how many panels can be mounted in a day
and connected to existing wiring by, say 2 men, in a day ? Do that and you can calculate the cost of living away salaries to mount 22,000 panels a day. err plus the ones that have not been mounted already ! Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 29 December 2022 10:28:49 AM
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Does anyone have a figure on how many panels can be mounted in a day
Bazz, Does anyone have a figure on how much pollution the manufacture of these panels causes & how much pollution from disposing them ? Posted by Indyvidual, Thursday, 29 December 2022 2:40:52 PM
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Indy, I am sure Chris Bowen will know the answer off the top of his head.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 29 December 2022 3:59:09 PM
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What's changed since 2015? http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/submissions/2015/02%20Peter%20Lang.pdf
Nuclear and intermittent renewables costs have fallen. It comes down to what works to reduce carbon intensity. One path works, the other doesn't. Simples really. Posted by Luciferase, Sunday, 1 January 2023 9:56:56 PM
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