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The Forum > Article Comments > What would a Taiwan war look like? > Comments

What would a Taiwan war look like? : Comments

By Brendan Taylor, published 2/3/2022

A full-blown conflict over Taiwan could make living through the COVID-19 pandemic seem like a cakewalk.

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A lot of speculation.
Posted by ttbn, Wednesday, 2 March 2022 8:40:28 AM
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Neither the currents nor the mudflats would provide any real impediment to hovercraft. And have the added benefit of being able to strike at will from an unexpected area. And that would likely mean, no nuclear strike being considered! As that would simply hurt any invasion force more or less as much as the local populace and tountamount to shooting oneself in the foot!

The cliffs would not prevent a sizeable force being choppered in and likewise from an area that probably will not be heavily defended?

Or the island covered with a paratroop invasion, or all three eventualities? After intensive shelling of various strong points? To weaken resolve and add to the confusion? Limit communications etc.

It would be a bloodbath and culminate in a decades long guerilla war like that employed in Vietnam, given terrain that would support such activity? And probably rules out anything but a blockade That would starve the locals into a surrender!?

All while the west hurled vociferous protests along with threats to the Chinese economy?

But due to the energy and steel barons etc,( enemies in our midst) such threats likely to come to nought?
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Wednesday, 2 March 2022 10:26:46 AM
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Footnote: Should such a war eventuate, We would be caught with our economic pants down! And way too dependent on China for almost all manufactured goods/production! And need to get cracking on developing in house self sufficancy ASAP as opposed to just talking about it or giving bare lip service to the concept, With the usual copouts like we need to do this or that? And given no funding of any worthwhile amount is committed!? Just a mountain of weasel words, Not too much will change, at least until its all but too late and change is forced on us.

Those that are able to need migrate away from major cities and look to self reliant country communities that still produce the basic essentials like milk, eggs, meat, natural fibre and grain. Plus energy alternatives that keep the lights and TV on!

The latter done the easiest using any permanent water source, a few 44 gal drums some pipe and water valves and simple gravity. Plus a water level water wheel and enough pipe to transfer the drive to dry ground and inside a simple waterproof construction.

Once started, the water wheel a 24/7 concept needing only routine maintenance. The energy created could power simple electrolysis and the production of hydrogen as fuel for the generator or tractor or what have you

And complemented by an innate ability to survive, sterilize all drinking water and produce most of basic needs/trade for those you can't make or produce. A cow being part of that survival strategy, plus around forty acres of well watered, agricultural land! where nothing, including cow pats are wasted.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Wednesday, 2 March 2022 11:11:47 AM
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China is unlikely to make a bombing and missile attack on Taiwan
without risking destroying what they really want on the Island.
The prize is the Integrated Circuit factories and the masks and
critical design people.
With a short warning a plan may already exists to uplift everything needed.
In a small number of years it will not matter anyway as similar
factories with the same skillset will be up and running in Texas.
They may well have the same masks as Taiwan.
I suspect the whole business is being transferred to Texas.

What is so important about the IC business ?
It gives the IC manufacturer a direct input to the latest techniques
both civil and military intelligence. Hidden routines can be built
into any IC or even mother boards as Dell found in their China made PCs.
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 2 March 2022 3:15:54 PM
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I think China is alarmed at the speed and severity of sanctions against Russia which applied to China would be devastating.

A blockade of Taiwan would lead to a blockade of China.

More differences with Taiwan are:

That it has already fought off an earlier attempt by China to invade and has prepared up to the hilt with all males having military training and a potential reserve of about 4 million soldiers.

China has estimated that it will need nearly 1 million soldiers to take Taiwan the build-up of which will give them months of warning.

A Chinese invading force will have to cross nearly 200km of sea facing a huge barrage of anti-ship missiles cross a heavily mined sea off Taiwan and land on heavily mined beaches whilst facing 1000s of machine guns and artillery.

While China can fire 1000s of rockets, Taiwan has a solid selection of cruise missiles and is acquiring patriot missile systems.
Posted by shadowminister, Wednesday, 2 March 2022 3:57:34 PM
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Thanks for the article Brendon Taylor.
Posted by Canem Malum, Wednesday, 2 March 2022 5:32:50 PM
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