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Hypersonic panic and competitive terror : Comments
By Binoy Kampmark, published 8/11/2021Undeterred by any rival capability, Trump claimed in May 2020 that the US military had come up with a
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Posted by LEGO, Monday, 8 November 2021 9:56:23 AM
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One would hardly expect an attack coming at us out of the blue from the south pole! But it could! And for an almost defenceless (fool's paradise) Australia, completely unprepared for such an eventuality! This means more than ever a system of reprisal in our hands that we can send anywhere on earth and respond in kind or as mutually assured destruction MAD!
This means we need affordable power and not the price-gouged system we currently are chained to by insane politics. We need a system that provides the cheapest energy on the planet (MSR thorium) and one accompanied by a completely transformed tax system (an unavoidable flat tax of 15%) that leaves high tech manufacture no choice other than relocate to these shores along with their various H.Q's! Without all the above, we are virtually defenceless! And must now focus the minds of even the most recalcitrant politicians, even those who stubbornly believe in appeasement as a workable strategy? Even though we know from hard-won experience, this has only ever led to greater and greater and less and less palatable demands! We can die on our feet fighting for our lives, rights and freedom or on our knees begging for all the above! The CCP shows it respects and responds to our first choice and never ever the second! that being so, it is our only real choice! And we need to end the endless prevarication by Ozzie pollies and just crack on with all the above! Alan B. Posted by Alan B., Monday, 8 November 2021 11:06:03 AM
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Alan B, we have zero defense ability against a standard ballistic attack, let alone these hypersonic non ballistic weapons.
So nothing really changes. Also, no nation has demonstrated a robust defense against ballistic weapons. Current tech employs multiple warheads off the one launch vehicle (MIRV's). Only one MIRV needs to get through what defense there may be. That is almost completely likely. Any launch, be it of the conventional ballistic type, or the non ballistic type will still be able to be detected, the initial launch signatures will be identical. So early warning will be maintained, our ability to intercept the warheads remains something we cant really do for either system anyway. So, new tech, status quo on outcomes, much ado about nothing. However plenty of $ to go to the defense industry to ultimately deliver SSDD. Posted by ViolentEntropy, Monday, 8 November 2021 1:09:40 PM
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Right out of Binoy's subject area of knowledge?
Written totally differently from Binoy's regular style? It may be news to Binoy that the US has been armed with hypersonic missiles for 62 years, if not longer. Certainly since 1959 when warheads were fitted to US SM-65 Atlas ballistic missiles. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SM-65_Atlas "The SM-65 Atlas was the first operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) developed by the United States and the first member of the Atlas rocket family. ...Atlas became operational in October 1959..." Pete (Unlike Binoy I'm an old hand at writing about hypersonic (ballistic) missiles, eg. http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2014/08/why-would-india-want-to-develop-10000_26.html ) Posted by plantagenet, Monday, 8 November 2021 1:41:41 PM
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Hi Plantagenet
There is an important distinction to make regarding these new hypersonic missiles versus the existing ballistic tech. Yes, both travel at hypersonic speeds, mach 5 plus. However, if the vehicle enters space on a ballistic trajectory it is a ballistic missile (albeit travelling at hypersonic speeds). If the missile does not leave the atmosphere on a non ballistic trajectory at above mach 5 it is defined as a hypersonic missile. Therefore the Atlas system differentiates itself and can not be compared as you have done. Posted by ViolentEntropy, Monday, 8 November 2021 2:55:23 PM
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Hi ViolentEntropy
Sorry to upset any clear new hypersonic missiles vs the existing ballistic tech distinction. Poor Binoy is unaware of the following. For years, there has been a HYBRID category of missiles mixing relatively low trajectory with maneuverable characteristics, which is/are: QUASI BALLISTIC HYPERSONIC MISSILES http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile#Quasi_ballistic_missiles "A quasi ballistic missile (also called a semi ballistic missile) including anti-ship ballistic missiles is a category of missile that has a low trajectory and/or is largely ballistic but can perform maneuvers in flight or make unexpected changes in direction and range. At a lower trajectory than a ballistic missile, a quasi ballistic missile can maintain higher speed, thus allowing its target less time to react to the attack, at the cost of reduced range. The Russian Iskander is a quasi ballistic missile.[8] The Russian Iskander-M cruises at HYPERSONIC speed of 2,100–2,600 m/s (Mach 6–7) at a height of 50 km. The Iskander-M weighs 4,615 kg, carries a warhead of 710–800 kg, has a range of 480 km and achieves a CEP of 5–7 meters. During flight it can maneuver at different altitudes and trajectories to evade anti-ballistic missiles.[9][10]" Rather than wet left Binoy's habitual US "Great Satan" of the military Superpowers it is China and Russian who are furthest ahead in ACTIVE Quasi Ballistic Hypersonic Missiles http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballistic_missile#List_of_quasi_ballistic_missiles ie: CHINA DF-15 (active) DF-21D (active) DF-26 (active) B-611MR (active) SY-400 (active) RUSSIA Tochka (active) Iskander (active) and US MGM-140B/E ATACMS (active) I rest upon my case. Posted by plantagenet, Monday, 8 November 2021 4:28:53 PM
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Hi Plantagenet
I had to laugh ""QUASI BALLISTIC HYPERSONIC MISSILES" Sounds like Dr Evil in an Austin Powers movie. However you are correct, Anti Shipping Missiles are now very fast and able to jink to a solid degree to obviate CIWS and other defenses. My point was that these new technologies utilise current ballistic launch systems in a suborbital profile with a "strap on" warhead delivery system. They should not be compared to ICBM systems such as Atlas. I still stick to the point that I do not believe that any Nation has the ability to reliably defeat an incoming warhead be it ballistic, hypersonic or quasi hypersonic. In that I agree with the Author to an extent, Panic and Terror. I'll put it this way, if I put a gun to your head, would you care if it was a shotgun or a howitzer? I'd argue you would crap yourself either way, and be just as doomed if I pulled either trigger. The point of the article is to show how the military industry will get a ton of $ to develop a new hammer to smack in the same nail. Posted by ViolentEntropy, Monday, 8 November 2021 5:49:12 PM
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Some rather unfunny violent imagery from "ViolentEntropy" on a chat forum.
Enough to concern the police?! Posted by plantagenet, Monday, 8 November 2021 6:35:10 PM
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The topic, the weapons in question and under development represent the pinnacle of violence.
To suggest I have made any sort of direct threat to you, or the forum indicates a lack of ability to comprehend comparative narrative that is disappointing. Posted by ViolentEntropy, Monday, 8 November 2021 9:54:01 PM
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Plant is correct that ballistic and interceptor missiles have been hypersonic for decades. What Binoy is talking about is the new range of hypersonic cruise missiles.
My view is that while they fill a new niche, they are far from the unstoppable weapons they have been hyped to be. Firstly nuclear-tipped hypersonic weapons can't compete with multi-warhead ballistic missiles that release up to 100 radar identical decoys. Secondly, hypersonic cruise missiles are heated by friction with the air up to 2000C which the increasingly agile missiles can either destroy or blind. Far more dangerous are the subsonic low flying stealthy missiles that also only give little to no warning. Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 9 November 2021 12:59:26 PM
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That being said, I agree with your implication that western weapon systems are ridiculously over priced. $100 million for one fighter plane? $1 billion for a bomber? Somebody is obviously having a lend of the taxpayer.
Generals and Admirals always over state their potential enemies capabilities as a way of squeezing more out of their governments. But the truth is tht today, western governments are barely managing to devote 2% of the GDP to their defense. This is exacerbated in the case of the USA who seems to want to pay to defend countries who are rich enough to defend themselves. South Korea is a case in point. it is now strong enough to take North Korea without US assistance. so why (as Trump pointed out) is the US still there wasting it's money?
Germany is another rich country that along with NATO no longer needs US assistance. Russia is not the USSR. Germany and France combined have a bigger GDP than Russia, and the former Warsaw pact are now part of NATO.
I don't buy the idea that the USA is behind in hypersonic missiles as nobody knows what the yanks have got until they make an appearance.
The incredible SR-71 spy plane flew for 20 years before one made an emergency landing in the UK and the public only then knew of this technologies existence.
The USA will always be ahead of Russia and China in everything, because the US and it's allies have to invent it, design it, and build it, before the Russians and Chinese can steal it.