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The Forum > Article Comments > A different defence policy > Comments

A different defence policy : Comments

By Don Aitkin, published 17/6/2021

Australia is, in my book, just like Sweden, and it is two and half times bigger in terms of population, and very similar in terms of wealth per head of population.

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I agree with the comments here. We are very vulnerable to having our
supplies of oil & petrol cut off.
They come almost entirely from Sth Korea and Singapore refineries.
It is just not the hazard of the Sth China Sea that threatens those
supplies but China is preparing to establish Naval ports in Iran.
They are setting up to dominate the Middle East.
A naval base and other bases in the Middle East would also compromise
direct deliveries from the Middle East.
Sydney alone usually has two oil tankers EVERY day !
The total number of oil tankers at sea on their way to Australia must
be around 100 at a guess. They would be at risk of attack or better
the purchase of their cargoes while at sea. I can just imagine an
email from Peking, "Sell your cargo to us or be sunk ! "

It gets worse, I made a proposal to our Local Emergency Management
Committee that we prepare a Displan for a fuel shortage.
I was told very clearly that the Minister had issued an order that
local fuel displans were not to be prepared as it is a Commonwealth
decision that the Commonwealth plan will be used.
The problem there is it is only involved with decisions on allocation
to the states.
My plan would empower the Police to seize supplies in local garages.
My plan envisaged the use of suburban electric trains to move food
from the ends of the electrification into the cities.
The diesel could be reserved for harvesting and food delivery.

If it got to this, then China would not invade as they would starve with us.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 17 June 2021 2:11:51 PM
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As far as electricity generation is concerned we have left it too late.
We should have continued with the Jervis Bay Nuclear station.
However we should make it a matter of real emergency to build while
we can get the support from overseas.
Also while we have the money/credit.
The alternatives are not alternatives.
We just do not have the money to build the renewables.
I know some will have a stroke on reading that, good, get them out of
the way. This is more important.
A single wind turbine produces the cheapest electricity BUT !
It is the required duplication and the spread around the country to
chase the wind that kills the whole solar & wind idea.
The cost duplication would appear to be between 5 & 12 times depending
on the size of the country and its wind systems. Despite what CSIRO
says they have not done a real time model, just looking at average
wind from BOM data.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 17 June 2021 2:25:18 PM
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Depending on BOM wind speed forecasts would be pretty disastrous for anyone planing a wind farm. Todays forecast for SE Queensland is the usual as far as accuracy goes.

"Southeast Coast area

Mostly sunny. Winds westerly 20 to 30 km/h. Daytime maximum temperatures between 18 and 21."

Well it is sunny & cool, but at 2.15PM we have not seen anything above 7km/h so far, & it is now unlikely to blow harder, unless we get an unforecast thunder storm.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 18 June 2021 2:17:57 PM
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That is exactly why wind is unreliable Hasbeen.
My proposal would be to install wx stations all around Australia in
the most likely places and connect them to a central computer and
knowing what the real output would be from one turbine then summing it
all up in the computer they could play at increasing the number of
virtual turbines on each site until they got 100% of the current load
on the real grid 100% of every day.
If a site was a dud they could move the wx station to a more promising site.

They could even install wx stations in virtual solar farms located
along the best parallel for the sun and adjust the number of virtual
panels in each to match the real grids daytime load.
It would cost a lot of money but nowhere near the amount they are
planning to spend to do the same thing with real turbines & solar panels.
As it is not their idea, I cannot see it being done.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 18 June 2021 2:56:46 PM
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Oh, I forgot to cover myself from the lovies, they would say "but
batteries will change all that !"
They will, but it is more complicated than that !
You have to allocate more wind turbines and solar to enable recharging
these very costly and hungry batteries at the most inconvenient times
like during several overcast and still days in a row.

Those determined to go ahead with wind & solar seem to bet on every
day being windy and sunny. Trouble is they are betting with our money !
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 18 June 2021 3:16:12 PM
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You will have to burn an awful lot of fossil fuel to mine enough copper to connect all those far flung assets Bazz, as well as all the rare earth minerals required, probably expending more energy doing so that the assets will produce in their life time.

Add in the transmission losses, & it is probably more economic & less polluting to simply use the fuel to do what it does best, rather than waste it on building & installing unreliables.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 18 June 2021 3:19:21 PM
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