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The Forum > Article Comments > Five vital steps to restore confidence in corona case calculations > Comments

Five vital steps to restore confidence in corona case calculations : Comments

By Graham Young, published 14/9/2020

The calculation error in COVID-19 projections made by the Peter Doherty Institute and incorporated into the National Cabinet response revealed last week was preventable and foreseeable — and now demands a national response.

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Dear ElizabethHart,

You still haven't addressed my particular question to you.

Do you think this extension to these four areas of Federal Government responsibility was warranted at this time or not?

Restrictions on the entry of cruise ships into Australia
Protections for the supply and sale of certain essential goods
Restrictions on overseas travel
Restrictions on retail stores at international airports

As to Sweden it shut its high schools and universities. Substantial parts of its heavy industry also closed. Even so the impact of loose social distancing rules saw a heavy toll on lives and on health budgets. Its economy shrank by a greater amount than any of its Scandinavian neighbours. Given vitamin D deficiencies are a feature of these countries it is evident that it is not a significant factor in Sweden's relatively high toll.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 15 September 2020 11:19:56 AM
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SteeleRedux I thought I made myself clear, I'm concerned that "The human biosecurity emergency declaration ensures the Government has the powers to take any necessary measures to prevent and control COVID-19 and protect the health of all Australians. These powers have been used on a limited basis on expert medical advice."

I'm concerned about "any necessary measures", and I think I'm still allowed to have that concern...

In regards to the four areas you've listed, restrictions on overseas travel is a concern, particularly for those people who are stuck overseas. For example, a report in The Australian yesterday discussed a pregnant woman and her partner who have been bumped off flights. Apparently the "Australian High Commission is inundated with similar tales of desperation, so much so all it can offer is to direct bumped Australians to join the local homeless at shelters".* Not a very nice situation to be in, particularly with financial worries.

As for your comments on Sweden, time will tell. As for your comment on vitamin D, that's your opinion.

* Coronavirus: 'Grab a couch', the only help offered to stranded Aussies. The Australian, 14 September 2020.
Posted by ElizabethHart, Tuesday, 15 September 2020 2:33:04 PM
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'As to Sweden it shut its high schools and universities'

are you lying again Steelie or just twisting facts to fit your narrative?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-schools-idUSKCN24G2IS
Posted by runner, Tuesday, 15 September 2020 2:39:02 PM
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For those of us who have followed the climate modelling debates over the past 25 years, this is all very familiar.

Modellers become so enamoured of their models that they start to confuse them with the real world.

They come to the models with a preconceived notion as to the likely 'answer' and when their model delivers that answer, that merely confirms in their mind that the model is correct.

When the errors in the models are discovered, the modellers assert that they already knew about them and secretly fixed them.

When reality finally hits that the model forecasts were hopelessly wrong, the modellers then advise that their forecasts weren't really forecasts but just 'pathways'. The IPCC went down a similar road when they finally changed their forecasts into 'projections' after decades of failed forecasts.

The problem with this is that the authorities are mesmerised by the forecasts. They came out of a computer so how could they be wrong?

And now that its clear to even the dimmest of minds that it was all a charade and the lockdowns were based on faulty data, its too late. The whole system is locked into the process. Too many people, from the medical fraternity to the pollies to the media, were all boosters for the policies and to now reverse course is unthinkable to them.

The whole thing is a disaster unlike anything this nation has ever seen.
Posted by mhaze, Wednesday, 16 September 2020 10:27:01 AM
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