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Data-Driven you say? Well, allow the data to drive! : Comments
By Matthew Rehn, published 11/8/2020The economic, social, physical, and mental cost of indefinite and harsh lockdown measures with a rinse-repeat cycle is threatening to have lifetime effects. Costs are mounting with each day.
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Posted by thinkabit, Wednesday, 12 August 2020 10:36:57 AM
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Off Topic
Great news, and as expected, Joe Biden appointed KAMALA HARRIS (on 11th August US time) as his (Vice Presidential) running mate. Harris, born 1964 (aged 55) is already a politician and former lawyer serving as the junior US senator from California since 2017. Born in Oakland, California, Harris is a graduate of Howard University and University of California, Hastings College of the Law. Harris began her career in the Alameda County District Attorney's Office before being recruited to the San Francisco District Attorney's Office and later the City Attorney of San Francisco's office. In 2003, she was elected the 27th district attorney of San Francisco, serving until 2011. Harris was elected Attorney General of California (which has a population and economy bigger than AUSTRALIA'S) in 2010. She was re-elected in 2014. In November 2016, Harris was elected a Federal/US Senator for California. Harris has been married to Douglas Emhoff since 2014. More see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 12 August 2020 11:22:19 AM
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Not revelling thinkabit, but highlighting that there is no such thing as elimination of this virus without a vaccine. Why not take that onboard as a fact then thinkabit from there?
Posted by Luciferase, Wednesday, 12 August 2020 2:01:54 PM
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Luciferase,
A lie will never be a fact, no matter how often it is repeated. The original SARS was eliminated without a vaccine. COVID19 can be too. It's much harder, as it's infectious before symptoms show. But with sufficient testing it can be done. Posted by Aidan, Wednesday, 12 August 2020 5:56:02 PM
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SARS didn't have asymptomatic cases, which is why testing wasn't needed to determine who was infectious and containment of the infected eliminated the virus. With COVID it appears from antibody and T-cell immunity that the majority of cases may be asymptomatic. If you're asymptomatic you're unlikely to isolate, or get tested.
Lalaland, a place where if you just dream it it's true. Posted by Luciferase, Wednesday, 12 August 2020 6:51:11 PM
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Luciferase,
Of course. So the most sensible response is to implement mass testing. Repeatedly testing the entire population may initially sound impractical or even impossible, but it only looks that way because we have so little experience of making a collective effort. If you look at it objectively, you'll see the cost would be far lower than the measures we're currently taking (let alone the cost of doing nothing) Posted by Aidan, Thursday, 13 August 2020 2:30:38 AM
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But watch what happens now. London-to-a-brick their government will respond rapidly in implementing high level restrictions at an appropriate scale (either suburb, city/town wide or province, etc.) and start a thorough comprehensive testing and tracing campaign in the areas affected. Also the population will be very sensible in their interpersonal interactions to try and limit the virus spread without needing to be told to. I predict that very soon they will have the outbreak under control and suppressed.
The reason why they'll do this is because they know that they can do it successfully since they've already done it once. And also because they have plenty of examples in other countries which clearly demonstrate the catastrophes that can happen if they don't. The population in general know how good they've had it for the last few months with no internal restrictions at all and no new cases. They won't be stupid enough to let that slip away.
In short their reaction will most likely be very different to the debacle of Victoria where some of the the populace thought that their self-importance has priority to the general health and well-being of the public at large. And where the Vic government reacted shockingly slowly with initially only a half-hearted response allowing the outbreak explode into the disaster that it is today.
Tackling this virus at the early outbreak stage is quite easy: Go hard and go fast with your response!