While all of that is cogent and convincing Nick. Part of the underlying reason could well be, increased ramped up Saudi production and a new never before imposed, Chinese oil tariff? Plus less central heating burning up oil reserves?
Alan B.

The petrodollar used to be a thing. Now the markets are more sophisticated it's just a meme. Prices are determined by supply and demand. A higher US dollar could suppress supply by making oil extraction less economically viable in the USA, but the effect is slight.

And the IEA is wrong: no country is forced to increase interest rates to defend its currency. They have a choice of defending it or not defending it, and the latter tends to be a much better strategy in the long term.