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The Forum > Article Comments > Death of the CET > Comments

Death of the CET : Comments

By Graeme McLeay, published 19/9/2017

Coalition talk of dumping Finkel's Clean Energy Target leaves Australia's climate policy in tatters.

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The Bureau of Meteorology now has a reputation for fiddling the books in relation to temperature records and so-called climate change.

But this is one record set that is difficult to fiddle: it's flood records for the Brisbane River, measured at the Port Office.

One might reasonably assume that the bigger the storm, the bigger the flood. One might also reasonably assume that flood height would increase as Brisbane grew and a much greater area of land was sealed, though perhaps some of that would be offset by increased drainage.

Oddly, the record shows something quite different:
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml

The two highest flood peaks (8m plus) were in the 1830s and 1893, with a 7m plus flood in the early 1840s. There was a 6.6m flood peak in 1974 and a 4.46m in January 2011, following heavy rain from a strong La Nina weather pattern.

Tropical cyclones have been part of the scene in and around Australia for at least 5000 years, often associated with flooding. Since 1960, there have been, by my count, 275 severe tropical cyclones in the Australian region, plus many more tropical lows, tropical cyclones and storms. So I think it would be difficult to argue that storms are "getting worse" or "more frequent".

In fact, in 1950 a tropical cyclone tracked from the Gulf to Sydney and caused 10 deaths, including a girl swept off the Esplanade at Cronulla, and in 1954 another tropical cyclone crossed the coast at Coolangatta, causing great damage on the Gold Coast and northern NSW. We haven't seen cyclones that far south since then.
Posted by calwest, Tuesday, 19 September 2017 3:22:01 PM
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Explanation of how climate change adds to hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones though it doesn't create them:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-04/cyclone-and-extreme-weather-events-intensifying-bom-says/8869042

http://www.newscientist.com/article/2146562-hurricane-irmas-epic-size-is-being-fuelled-by-global-warming/

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/06092017/hurricane-irma-harvey-climate-change-warm-atlantic-ocean-questions

http://www.wired.com/story/what-are-the-odds-of-a-super-storm-like-harvey/

http://time.com/4933743/hurricane-irma-climate-change-global-warming/

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41082668

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/08/549280066/hurricanes-are-sweeping-the-atlantic-whats-the-role-of-climate-change

http://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=132&v=9mKC49AUVUo
Posted by ant, Tuesday, 19 September 2017 3:44:23 PM
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Well Ant, that is a great list of the global warming propaganda organisations. Doesn't say much for your choice of reading/viewing matter.

calwest there was also the 1946 cyclone that did not hit the south coast, but was close enough that it removed the Noosa sand dunes, converting the brackish inland lagoon to the estuary it now is.

Guess where we were for dads discharge holiday at the time. At least the high winds kept the sand flies grounded for a few days.
Posted by Hasbeen, Tuesday, 19 September 2017 7:30:26 PM
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Hi Hasbeen,

Yes, there have been many cyclones that nobody remembers any more. For example, I was surprised to discover that Broome was pretty much wiped out by a cyclone back in the 1930s and it was creepily similar to Tracy.

I don't recall the '46 cyclone, but I do remember the '54 cyclone which just missed Brisbane and hit the Gold Coast. Very scary in an old wooden house on stilts, but in the end we survived without any serious damage.

The point of all this is that there have been hundreds of cyclones of various intensity, including 275 severe ones since 1960. Frankly, my childhood memories are that Brisbane was a lot hotter back then, too, but that may be just my memory playing tricks. My great grandfather died in the 1893 flood in Brisbane, still the worst on record and way before the global warming scam, so I've had an interest in extreme weather for a long time.

In any case, I find it very difficult to accept arguments that cyclones and hurricanes are bigger, stronger and more frequent than in the past and I've seen no evidence that that is the case.
Posted by calwest, Wednesday, 20 September 2017 1:19:28 AM
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Hasbeen "... Doesn't say much for your choice of reading/viewing matter."

The articles and youtube film quoted a number of scientists ... Kevin Trenberth, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Hayhoe, Kerry Emanuel, Heidi Cullen, Blair Trewin, Sarah Kapnick, Gabriel Vecchi, Frederick Otto, Dalia Kirschbaum and Peter Jacobs. The sources are a bit odd as well; eh Hasbeen, Time, Scientific American, BBC, ABC, and Inside Climate News.

The view that a warm marine environment creates more water vapour is known ... the Clausius Clapeyron equation is used to work out how much more water vapour can be expected to be taken up.

There are very simple experiments that can be conducted to show how warm water creates more water vapour than cooler water.

Comments stating something is wrong are meaningless without any evidence.

Comments are made such as there have been no more extreme events than in the past; Climate & Extreme Weather News suggests otherwise, since the referenced youtube film showing what had been happening between 20-22 June 2017 there have been 31 further films to bring us up to date.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CduMGg8aohQ&feature=share
Posted by ant, Wednesday, 20 September 2017 6:11:25 AM
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Some interesting statistics of Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes:
1851 - 1900 = 0
1901 - 1930 = 2
1931 - 1960 = 8
1961 - 1990 = 10
1991 - 2017 = 13

From:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-1851-2016-041117.txt

Translated by Eric Holthaus, Meteorologist:

http://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/910016642104664064

Joe Room, Physicist writes:

"Holland, the Director of NCAR’s Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, pointed out last week that “globally, the proportion of Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased from ~20 percent of all hurricanes to around 40 percent due to climate change over the past 60 years.”"

http://thinkprogress.org/climate-scientists-rise-in-super-hurricanes-4596dfb294ee/
Posted by ant, Wednesday, 20 September 2017 7:07:06 PM
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